Friday morning update
Friday, July 14, 2017:
Thunderstorms possible today. Some could be heavy.
Storm tracking links will be posted below.
Long range video and graphics have been posted for subscribers (see the www. weathertalk. com website and click the live feed for those links)
Today and this evening:
A warm and unstable air-mass blanket the region. A cold front is slowly moving southward into our local counties.
This front will be the focus for heavy thunderstorm redevelopment later today. As happened on Thursday, some areas may miss out.
Some of you experienced damaging winds last night, frequent lightning, and two to four+ inches of rain. Others received no precipitation.
Wind fields will be weak today (that is good news).
Instability will be high. CAPE values of 1500 to 3500 will be common. Dew points in the 68 to 74-degree range. Lift index values of -6 or below. Weak lapse rates. Weak wind shear.
All of those ingredients spell slow moving thunderstorms. I can’t rule out flash flooding (isolated).
Storms will produce rainfall totals of one to two inches per thirty minutes.
A few storms will likely produce downburst winds of 50 mph or greater. Typical for summer months. These storms can climb to 50,000′ or higher into the atmosphere. What goes up must come down.
Actual reports of severe weather should be limited. A low-end severe weather risk at any given location.
Storms will end later tonight over most of the area.
The front is not moving all that fast.
A few thunderstorms could remain into Saturday morning over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
Everyone should dry out by late morning and afternoon.
Dew points will be lower on Saturday. It won’t feel as muggy (once the front passes your area). Temperatures will range from 84 to 88 degrees.
Saturday night will be dry with lows in the 60’s.
Sunday will be warm and a little more humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs will range from 85 to 90 degrees.
There are some indications that a heat wave might occur next week. Still a bit early for confidence.
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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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July 13, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Some storms could produce locally heavy rain.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low-end severe weather risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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July 14, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Warm. Storms that do form could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph. Winds behind the front will become west and northwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Heavy downpours. Some storms could produce high winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low-end severe weather risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans in case storms move into the area.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Scattered locally heavy thunderstorms possible, especially early. Rain ending north to south.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds becoming northwest and north.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Evening storms could be intense with strong winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but perhaps ending from north to south.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Evening plans could be interrupted by scattered storms. Monitor radars and updates.
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July 15, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some clouds may remain over our southern counties (Bootheel/KY TN border). Warm, a bit less humid. Perhaps a few remaining morning showers and thunderstorms. The best chance would be over the Missouri Bootheel and along the KY/TN border. Smaller chances north of there.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Southern counties might have to deal with some morning storms with lightning and downpours. Low confidence on that part of the forecast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Most of the region will be dry. Scattered storms may remain near the Bootheel into the Kentucky/Tennessee border area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and mild. Not quite as muggy. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: North winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 16, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. A small chance for an afternoon thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Small chance for lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 17, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and warm. A bit more humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming southerly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 18, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL ~ 88 to 92 KY ~ 88 to 92 TN ~ 88 to 92
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 19, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 95 IL ~ 90 to 95 KY ~ 90 to 95 TN ~ 90 to 95
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Thursday night into Friday night: Scattered thunderstorms are likely to occur along and ahead of an in-coming cold front. Storms that do form could be intense. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail will be possible. I can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary concern.
Saturday through Monday: A small risk for thunderstorms on Saturday morning for the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee and perhaps near the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Most of the region should remain dry.
A weak cold front will approach on Sunday/Sunday night. I can’t rule out isolated storms along the front, although it appears moisture will be limited.
Here comes our cold front!
A cold front is sagging into the region from the north. This front will slowly progress southward over the next 24 to 36 hours. Showers and heavy thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front.
Precipitation is forecast to end by late Friday night. There is a small chance for lingering showers and storms over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee before 8 am Saturday. If the front moves fast enough, then we won’t have to worry about precipitation on Saturday. For now, I have kept rain chances less than 10% on Saturday.
Friday afternoon cold front position. The front will move south.
Saturday morning cold front position.
Another cold front, this one much weaker, will push into the region on Sunday and Sunday night. This front will have limited moisture to work with. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may accompany the front. Rain chances, at any given location, will be kept at 20% or less.
Temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday will be warm, but it won’t be quite as humid. Dew points will drop into the 64 to 68 degree range on both days. We have been experiencing dew points in the 70’s. Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside.
Dew points in the 70’s represent muggy conditions. Air you wear. Uncomfortable. Don’t get me wrong, it will still be humid this weekend, but just not as bad as recent days.
Dew point map
Click images to enlarge
Dew point scale
Friday afternoon
Saturday afternoon
Sunday afternoon
High temperatures will range from 85 to 90 on both Saturday and Sunday. Decent camping with (with lots of sun screen).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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