Videos can be viewed at this link. Long Range Video Update
If you believe you missed a video then you can also click the LIVE FEED link on the Weather Talk website. That page holds links for several days.
I can text you the videos, as well. Make sure you have text option FOUR turned on. That would be the Weather Extra text option. Sign up for the text messages at www.beaudodsonweather.com
.
..
This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
.
The following link is for Weather Text subscribers. This is the page where short and long range video outlooks have been posted. The videos are being produced by a team of meteorologists. Some of the best in the region.
https://weathertalk.com/app/beaucast
.
July 11, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible near the I-64 corridor towards northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and isolated lightning (far north)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. this forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
July 12, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Hot and muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Scattered storms possible near the MO/AR and KY/TN line. Heat index values of 96 to 102 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 95 IL ~ 90 to 95 KY ~ 90 to 95 TN ~ 90 to 95
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
July 13, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Hot and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms possible, especially during the afternoon hours. Heat index values of 95 to 102 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low-end severe weather risk
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous late in the day
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low-end severe weather risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.
July 14, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low-end severe weather risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but perhaps ending from north to south.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Nom but monitor updates.
.
LOW CONFIDENCE on the Saturday and Sunday forecast. Guidance is all over the place as to where a cold front might stall out. If it stalls over our area, then thunderstorm chances wll continue into Saturday and Sunday.
July 15, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Warm. Perhaps less muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
July 16, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? N0
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
.
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. I can’t rule out some thunderstorms over our northern counties. The I-64 corridor into northwest Kentucky would be the most likely area for storms.
Thursday through Sunday: Some storms are possible on Thursday and Friday. Low-end risk for severe weather.
Saturday and Sunday’s forecast might include storms, but confidence is low.
Any storms that form, over the coming week, could produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
More of the same. That is the weather story for the coming days. Muggy, hot, and mostly dry through Wednesday night.
We will continue to monitor MCS’s to our north. MCS’s are large thunderstorm complexes that form during the summer months. I made a video of Monday afternoon and night MCS’s. The large red colors are cold cloud tops. Cloud tops reaching above 50,000 feet. Thunderstorms!
You can watch the MCS’s develop and then weaken. They typically peak at night. They can cover large areas. The Monday MCS’s produced numerous tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding. Some areas picked up seven inches of rain! That is what happens during the summer months when dew points are in the 70’s. PWAT values were above two inches. Plenty of moisture to work with.
Our weather will remain calm into Wednesday night. It is after Wednesday night that changes begin.
The ridge of high pressure, which has been responsible for our hot and dry weather, will soon push off to the west. This will open the door for a cold front to push in from the north. This front will then become the focus for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.
Thunderstorms that form could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. There is a low-end risk for severe weather on Thursday and Friday. The main concern would be damaging winds.
NAM 3K future-cast radar. This won’t be exact. This is just a models opinion on what radar MIGHT look like.
Thursday 4 pm
Thursday 7 pm
Friday 1 pm
The front should continue to push southward on Friday night and Saturday. With that said, some of the guidance packages are trying to stall the front over our area. If the front stalls, then thunderstorm chances will continue. This part of the forecast will need to be monitored.
For now, I placed a low confidence marker on the Saturday and Sunday forecast.
Temperatures through Friday will remain quite warm. Cloud cover and storms could cause temperatures to be lower on Thursday and Friday, but this is still an unknown. The coverage of storms will be key to temperatures on those two days.
Highs on Wednesday will again top out in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s Combine that with dew points in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s and you end up with heat index values of 95 to 102 degrees.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will top out in the 85 to 90-degree range. Possibly higher if clouds are thinner.
If the front pushes to our south on Friday night and Saturday, then temperatures and dew points will be lower for the weekend. It might feel a bit nicer outside. This will, however, require the front to actually move to our south. Again, low confidence on this part of the forecast.
Rainfall totals will vary over the coming days. Slow moving storms, on Thursday and Friday, could produce totals in excess of two inches. If storms train, then much higher totals could occur. Let’s monitor the trends. Models do not handle precipitation totals all that great during the summer months.
It is not uncommon, during the summer months, for portions of the area to receive flash flooding rainfall totals, while other areas receive almost no rain at all.
Are you subscribing to the Weather Talk texts and videos?
We now have premiere videos for the short and long range forecasts!
Sign up at www.beaudodsonweather.com
We also have an Apple and Android app (scroll down to bottom of the page for more information)
Were you aware that I have hired some help for long range videos? Short range videos, as well. An amazing team of meteorologists.
Click the link below to read more
http://cms.weathertalk.com/meet-the-team/
Weather Talk subscribers now have some of the best short and long range weather videos produced across the eastern United States.
.
Find me on Twitter
.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
.
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
.
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
.
.
.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
.
.
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
——————————————————–
If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do. Link www.beaudodsonweather.com
Your support helps with the following:
and
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
