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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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Thursday Night – Some clouds. A scattered shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable and becoming more south and southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Although, a strong storm is possible over southeast Missouri. Gusty winds would be the main concern.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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There will be at least a few showers and storms over the Friday into Sunday time frame. There is a greater chance for precipitation from Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Carbondale, Illinois. Along that line and then west/north of that line will have better chances of rain from Friday into Sunday. The best chance for showers and storms (area wide) will be on Sunday afternoon into Monday night. It is during this time frame that heavier rain may occur. Focused on late Sunday night into Monday.
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds will be variable in direction at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but maybe glance at radar from time to time.
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to High.
Moonrise will be at 3:16 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:26 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Friday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? If storms develop then wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph. Winds could be variable in direction at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor future updates
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Saturday – Cloudy to partly cloudy. Cooler where clouds are thickest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Best coverage over Missouri and Illinois.
What impact is expected? Some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures will vary greatly over the region. Where clouds are thicker you can expect to shave several degrees off the high temperatures. Overall, most areas should be in the 68-76 degree range. Again, if clouds are thicker then it will be cooler over parts of the region. Mainly the northern and western parts of the red counties on the map above. Western Kentucky may end up in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph. Winds may turn out of the north or northeast.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% over western Kentucky and 50%-60% over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Plan on precipitation on radar.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered over western Kentucky. Perhaps numerous over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Check radars from time to time.
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 3-5. Low to medium. If clouds are thicker then 3-5 seems reasonable. If the sun does come out then pop those numbers up.
Moonrise will be at 4:06 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:30 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Saturday Night – Some clouds. Mild. Can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable in direction at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. But, check radars from time to time.
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Sunday – Partly cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms likely.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Monitor updates concerning severe weather.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 north to 85-90 degree range south. Cooler where clouds are thicker. Warmer outside of the cloud zone.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southerly at 6-12 mph gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Monitor updates. Some data shows widespread showers and thunderstorms developing from west to east late Sunday afternoon.
Is severe weather expected? A few storms be quite intense. I can’t rule out severe weather. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and have a plan B. There remains some questions on precipitation coverage Sunday. Perhaps increasing chances towards evening from west to east.
Sunrise will be at 5:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to perhaps high. Questionable amount of sun on Sunday.
Moonrise will be at 5:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:31 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Sunday Night – Becoming cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some heavy rain possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning. Heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable in direction at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Is severe weather expected? A few intense storms are possible. Monitor updated information.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium to high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and have a plan B.
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July 4th ~ Monday – Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some heavy rain possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-88 degree range. High temps will depend on cloud cover.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds may become more south to southwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some intense storms can’t be ruled out.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might be wise to have a plan B on Monday.
Sunrise will be at 5:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 6:00 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:25 p.m. New moon.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Again, a good chance for scattered thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66 to 72 degree range
Winds: Winds south in direction at 4-8 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but a few strong storms possible with gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would suggest having a plan B. We should be dealing with some showers and thunderstorms.
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Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Southwest and south winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Coverage of precipitation on Tuesday will need to be monitored.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor future updates.
Sunrise will be at 5:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 7:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Again, a chance for scattered thunderstorms. But, low confidence.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Warmer. More humid. A thunderstorm again possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86 to 92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 8:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:56 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warmer. More humid.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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Thursday – Partly sunny. Hot. More humid. Scattered storm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 9:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:34 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Warmer. Humid.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Friday – Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 10:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:08 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Rain chances over the coming days
- Heat wave next week? Brief?
- More unsettled weather in the long range
A complex forecast for an important weekend. I know many of you have outdoor plans. We will have to deal with sporadic shower and thunderstorm chances over the region.
The main focus for widespread coverage will be on Sunday afternoon (late) into Monday night. This is when the storm system will approach and move into the region. And, it is this time frame that I believe the highest probability for rain will occur. Widespread rain.
A frontal boundary will be draped across the region on Friday into Friday night. This front will bump into high pressure on Friday night and Saturday. The front will push northward on Saturday and Saturday night. The front will be the main focus for showers and thunderstorms.
On Friday there will be at least a few scattered showers and storms in the region. But, not anticipating widespread rain. If you have outdoor plans I would not cancel them. Perhaps check radar from time to time.
Coverage of precipitation will increase on Saturday. This will mostly occur over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Western Kentucky and western Tennessee will have a few scattered showers or storms. I would not cancel any plans. But, if you live in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, I would check radars. You may have to deal with some rain. Severe weather is not anticipated on Friday or Saturday.
Temperatures on Saturday will vary greatly over the region. Some guidance is showing 60’s for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This would be in areas with the most clouds and some rain. But, even outside those areas it could be on the cool side. Not the best forecast for Saturday. Certainly won’t feel like summer for parts of the region.
Very heavy rain is likely to fall over the weekend across central and northern Missouri into central Illinois. Anywhere from 3-6″ is anticipated. And, pockets of 6-8″ could occur. This will miss our region to the north. For the most part (the widespread nature of the big totals).
Our shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase on Sunday afternoon and night. It will increase from west to east. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible by Sunday evening into Monday night. Locally heavy rain will be a concern. And, lightning will be a concern for outdoor events. If you have plans on Sunday then I would not cancel them. However, I would encourage you to have a plan B. And, if you have plans on Sunday night into Monday night then have a solid plan B. Plan on some showers and thunderstorms.
Unfortunately, the Fourth of July forecast is a wet one. I am expecting quite a bit of activity for the region. I know we need rain. So, I suppose one can’t complain. But, it is a big holiday weekend for many. We will just have to deal with nature.
The threat for severe weather over the coming days is low. There will be some energy on Sunday and Monday to work with. If severe storms were to occur they would likely be isolated. Damaging wind would be the concern. Let’s keep an eye on the severe weather thread Sunday afternoon into Monday. Monitor for changes.
Rainfall totals will vary GREATLY over the coming five day period. I suspect some places will end up with less than 0.50″. And, I would not be a bit surprised to see some three to four inch totals. Especially for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Locally higher.
Confidence in the overall forecast is medium. Confidence on the timing of precipitation at any given point is low to medium. This is a complex set-up. And, it would just about be impossible to tell you it will or won’t rain at a certain time point in your weekend plans.
A short lived heat wave is likely to impact the region on Tuesday or Wednesday into Friday/Saturday. Some of the guidance is showing lower to upper 90’s. Guidance over the last 24 hours has trended lower with temperatures. But, this will need to be monitored. Then, perhaps more northwest flow. Then another round of heat. Repeating pattern we have had for the past four to six weeks.
The good news, if there is any, is that some of the newest guidance indicates the possibility of an unsettled pattern next week into next weekend. If true then perhaps we are not finish with rain chances. We desperately need rain. And, we may have several chances. Let’s not give up just yet.
The longer range also shows unsettled further into July. Perhaps transient heat spells. Much like the past month we might bounce back and forth between the heat ridge and the northwest flow.
Let’s look at some of the guidance as far as when it might rain and how much. These are 12 hour rainfall totals via the GFS guidance.
This first map is from 7 pm on Friday through 7 am on Saturday. Click images for a larger view.
This next map is for Saturday 7 am through Saturday night at 7 pm.
This next map is for 7 pm on Saturday night to 7 am on Sunday morning
This next image is for 7 am on Sunday morning through 7 pm on Sunday evening. Notice the increase in coverage from west to east. Also notice the big totals to our north.
This next image is for 7 pm on Sunday evening to 7 am on Monday morning. Heavy rain is possible Sunday night into Monday morning over parts of the region.
This next map is from 7 am on Monday morning through 7 pm on Monday evening. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday across the region. Locally heavy rain possible.
Finally, here is the 7 pm Monday night map through 7 am on Tuesday morning map.
Here are the final totals for the entire period. This is from the GFS guidance. The maps above all added up.
The latest drought monitor map has been posted. Finally it shows what all of us already knew. It is dry. They have placed us as abnormally dry on the scale. Again, we already knew this. I have been showing you the SPI index numbers. It has captured the dry spell a lot better than the drought monitor maps.
Here is the new drought monitor map. Yellow is for abnormally dry. Click map for a larger view.
Let’s compare that to the SPI index map. You can tell SPI captures the truth a bit better than the drought monitor maps. Yellow, orange, and red indicate dry conditions. Scale is at the bottom of the graphic.
Here is the SPI index departure from normal precipitation map. As you can see, a large chunk of the region needs rain. And, we will receive some over the coming days. Some areas to our west and north will receive way too much rain. Can’t seem to win!
I have been saying that June would likely be one of the top five warmest June’s in the nations recorded history. We should find out the numbers over the next few days. I will be curious to see where it ranks. It was VERY warm across much of the country.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday Night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A thunderstorm is possible.
Friday into Saturday night: Scattered thunderstorms are possible. Heavy downpours and lightning would be the main concern.
Sunday into Monday: Thunderstorms are possible. A few storms could become severe. Lets keep an eye on Sunday and Monday.
Monday night into Tuesday: Thunderstorms are again possible. A few storms could produce gusty winds. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern.
Level one risk
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I continue to wrestle with the weekend forecast. Plan on at least some storms on radar from time to time. And, we will need to monitor southeast Missouri and southern Illinois for a bit more coverage on both Saturday and Sunday.
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Main concern will be some thunderstorms over the coming days. Heavy rain and lightning being the concern. Severe weather threat is small.
Have a plan B for the weekend. In case we do have rain and storms.
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Umbrella handy. We will have some showers and thunderstorms on radar over the coming days.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Rain and storms enter the forecast as early as Thursday afternoon or night. And, on and off shower and thunderstorm chances into the first part of next week. Some locally heavy rain is possible. This might be our first widespread rainfall event that we have experienced in quite some time. Let’s hope we can pick up substantial rain for the farmers. I know it is a holiday weekend, but we need rain.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
