Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 9, 2018: Winter storm update

Tonight, at 7:30 PM, over on my Facebook weather page, I will discuss the POTENTIAL of some winter weather Thursday night into Friday night.

Link to that page
https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather/

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January 9, 2018
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Fog possible.  Drizzle or light showers possible.  Sowly rising temperatures.  The  low temperatures will occur the first half of the night.
Temperatures
:    MO ~  43 to 46     IL ~  43 to 46       KY ~  43 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered or patchy
Wind chill values:  40’s
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: East and southeast becoming south and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Perhaps wet roadways and lower visibility in fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but check radars

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January 10, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Morning fog possible.  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  52 to 56       IL ~  55 to 60       KY ~  55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South wind 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in morning fog.  Scattered wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Milder.  Showers possible.  Windy.
Temperatures
:    MO ~   53 to 58     IL ~  53 to 58    KY ~  53 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: South winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but check radars

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January 11, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy and windy.  Mild.  Scattered showers likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64       IL ~  58 to 64     KY ~  58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds:  South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Winds may switch to west and northwest once the cold front passes.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B in case it rains

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The forecast details Thursday night into Friday night WILL change.  Monitor updates.

Small changes in the track of this system will dramatically change the forecast.

Thursday night Forecast Details
Winter Storm Alert
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Turning sharply colder.  Breezy. Showers changing to freezing rain and sleet.  Snow possible late.  Some accumulation possible, but confidence remains low.
Temperatures
:    MO ~  24 to 34     IL ~  24 to 34      KY ~  28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: 15 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice:  Yes.  Accumulating snow or ice will be a possibility.
Winds
:  South wind becoming northwest and north at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty winds possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.  Icy roads may develop.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:  Have a plan B

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January 12, 2018
Winter Storm Alert
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Sharply colder.  Freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible.  Our eastern counties could be rain changing to freezing rain.  There remains questions on placement of the cold front. Monitor updates.  Confidence in the forecast details remains low.
Temperatures:  MO ~  25 to 30       IL ~  25 to 30      KY ~  26 to 38  (a wide range of temps possible)
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps widespread
Wind chill values:  10 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice:  Yes.  Accumulating wintry precipitation is a possibility.  Monitor updates.  Confidence remains low.
Winds:  North 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads possible.  Ice accumulation possible on wires and tree limbs.  Ice totals of 0.10″ to 0.25″ possible.  Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Winter Storm Alert
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Snow possible.  Sleet may mix in with the snow.  Low confidence.
Temperatures:    MO ~  15 to 20     IL ~  18 to 24      KY ~  22 to 26
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: 5 to 15
Accumulating snow or ice:  Yes.  Accumulating snow or ice will be a possibility.
Winds:  North at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  Have a plan B

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January 13, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Colder.  Snow showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  22 to 26       IL ~  22 to 26      KY ~  22 to 26
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Wind chill values:  10 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice:  Snow showers are possible and we may be dealing with snow or ice from Friday’s event.
Winds:  North at 10 to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cold.  Temperatures will vary based on snow and ice cover.
Temperatures:    MO ~  14 to 18     IL ~  12 to 16      KY ~  14 to 16
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: 0 to 15
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds:  North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  Have a plan B

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January 9, 2018

The daily outlook can be found at the bottom of this post.

Forecast

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS AND VIDEOS

For subscribers only.  Please log into your www.weathertalk.com account and click the Winter Weather Outlook tab.

The Missouri Valley and long range video will be posted on the subscriber site within the next 45 minutes.

We have a lot of weather to cover over the coming days.

It is important to remember that even small changes in the atmosphere can GREATLY change the forecast.  A shift of 25 to 50 miles, of the area of low pressure, can cause a heavy snow forecast to turn into a light snow forecast.

This system is still a couple of days away.  There is some agreement in the generalities of the forecast, but not the exact details.  Monitor updated forecasts as they will change.

I will keep the blog updated with frequent updates.  Come back from time to time to see if I have posted fresh information.

There will be the free blog site located here  Weather Talk Free Blog

There will be the premium blog site (that you are currently on) and that can be located within your Weather Talk account under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  Just sign into www.weathertalk.com and then click that tab.

Today through Thursday morning

We will have quite a few clouds over the coming days.  An inversion is helping to keep fog and low clouds trapped across the region.  From time to time the fog has been dense with near zero visibility.  Periods of fog will be possible into Wednesday night.

Patchy drizzle can also occur with this type of pattern.

Temperatures will be much warmer over the next 48 hours compared to the last few weeks.  Some areas will even top 60 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday.

Here is the Wednesday temperature forecast
6 PM

Well above the seasonal norms
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Thursday 12 PM

Notice the colder temperature lurking back towards northwest Missouri.  That is the cold front.  That front will sweep eastward with time.
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Here is the 6 PM Thursday temperatures.  No problem finding the front.
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Here is the 12 AM Friday temperature map.  The cold air continues to move eastward.
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Here is the 12 PM Friday temperature map.  According to the NAM model, the cold air quickly pushes eastward.  Other guidance is slower.
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Here is the future-cast radar from the GFS model guidance.

There is MAJOR disagreement among the models as to how fast the freezing precipitation arrives and exits.

Questions remain on how far east the system will track.  It is just too early to know the answers.
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Green and dark green is rain.  Blue and dark blue would be snow.  Purple, pink, and red would be sleet and/or freezing rain.

This is one models opinion.  One solution of many solutions.
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Let’s take a look at some EC guidance.

Thursday 12 PM through 6 PM

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Orange/pink/purple would be sleet and freezing rain.

Darker shades mean heavier precipitation.  These are 6 hour precipitation totals.

Friday 6 PM through Saturday 12 AM (image below)

Friday 12 AM through 6 AM

Friday 6 AM through 12 PM (below)

Friday 12 PM through 6 PM

Friday 6 PM through Saturday 12 AM

Saturday 12 AM through 6 AM

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That is a lot of wintry precipitation on the EC guidance.  We would end up with a lot of sleet, freezing rain, and snow if it is correct.

Let’s look at some of the ensembles.  Ensembles make it easier to see patterns and trends.
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Here is the GFS ensemble forecast map from the EC guidance.

The colors represent snow totals.  The EC model lumps freezing rain, sleet and snow together (at least on these maps).  That means this is not all snow.  It could be a mixture of precipitation types.

The pink colors represent heavy totals.

Each one of these ensemble members shows you a little different solution.  The more images that match the higher the confidence level in the eventual outcome.

You can see our region is in the running for a winter storm.  Quite a few of the ensembles agree to that.

Click image to enlarge
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More EC ensemble members

Click to enlarge
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Let’s look at the GFS guidance.  These are ensembles members.

This time it is showing you precipitation falling and not the totals.

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This first image is for 12 AM Friday.

Click images to enlarge

The GFS shows widespread rain in green.  Some of the ensemble members are showing blue and orange/red.  That would be the rain changing to snow and ice.

Quite a few of the ensemble members are showing a wintry mix by late Thursday night into Friday.

Click image to enlarge
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This next set of ensemble members would be 6 AM Friday.

Now you can see the system shifting a bit to the east.  A new area of low pressure is forecast to develop to our south and ride north and northeast along the front.  The track of this system will determine how much wintry precipitation our region will receive.

Green would be rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink, orange, and red would be sleet and freezing rain.

Click to enlarge

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This next set of ensemble members will be for 12 PM Friday.

You can start to see the new system ride northward and enhance the precipitation.

Will it pass across our region or too far east?  That is still a question.

Click to enlarge
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This next ensemble set is for 12 PM Friday.

You see there is a lot of disagreement.  Some of the model runs are too far east for our region to receive snow.  Some are right over our region.

This tells you that confidence remains low in the eventual outcome of this winter storm.

Click to enlarge.
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This next set is for 12 AM Saturday

I wide range of possible solutions.  Guidance ranges from nothing at all to heavy snow.

Click to enlarge
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It is too early to know the outcome of this winter weather event.

There is the potential of heavy snow and ice across our region.  Potential does not always make reality.  Stay updated on the latest forecasts.

Bitterly cold air will likely follow this system.

The temperature forecast will be HIGHLY dependent on snowfall.  If we have widespread snow, then temperatures will be much colder than shown below.

Here is the 6 AM Sunday temperature map
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6 AM Tuesday temperatures (again, this is dependent on snow cover)
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Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook

It is important to remember that this pattern is fluid.  There is always going to be lower than normal confidence, during the winter months, for the forecast past day three or four.
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Here are my latest snow probability maps for the week ahead.

I am monitoring the potential of winter precipitation Thursday night into Friday night/Saturday.

There is the potential for accumulating snow or ice.  Monitor updates moving forward.

T-1″ means a trace to one inch.
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A fast moving system could deliver light snow to portions of the region on Sunday and Monday.  It is still early to know the exact track of the system.

These numbers will need adjusting moving forward.

T-1″ means a trace to one inch.
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS AND VIDEOS

For subscribers only.  Please log into your www.weathertalk.com account and click the Winter Weather Outlook tab.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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Live lightning data ~ click here

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During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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