Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 4, 2017: Colder weather. Snow showers?

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I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service.  Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.  You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.

Here is the link to the winter weather updates – Daily Weather Summary tab

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WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

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January 3
, 2017
Tuesday Night:  Patchy fog and drizzle early.  Breezy.  Some clearing late.  Colder.  Small chance for a flurry.  Watch any remaining wet spots as they could freeze over as temperatures fall into the 20’s.  A bit of a range in temperatures from northwest to southeast tonight.  Low to middle 20’s far northwest and northern counties of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Middle to upper 20’s for far southeast Missouri. southern seven Illinois counties, and western Kentucky/Tennessee.  Winds will make it feel colder.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Use care if moisture remains as temperatures fall into the 20’s.  Patchy fog will reduce visibility.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.

Temperatures:  Lows in the 22 to 28 degree range.  Coldest near Farmington, MO and Mt Vernon, IL and warmest towards Hopkinsville, Kentucky.
Wind Chill:  8 to 16 degrees
Winds:  North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 40%  (before midnight) KY ~ 50% (before midnight)   TN ~ 40% (before midnight)
Coverage of
precipitation
: None to isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Flurries possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.
Sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m.  Waning Crescent

 

January 4, 2017
Wednesday:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Much colder than recent days.  Cold wind chill values.
What impact is expected?  Cold wind chills.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 26 to 34 degree range.  Winds will make it feel colder.
Wind Chill:  8 to 16 degrees before 10 am and then 15-25 degrees after 10 am
Winds:  North and northwest during the morning at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.  Afternoon winds of 5-10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%  KY ~ 10%  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely.  Possible flurry early in the morning.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be chilly.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 1:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:04 p.m.  Waning Crescent 

Wednesday Night:  Becoming cloudy.  Light snow likely developing over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.  That would include areas like Farmington, Missouri eastward towards Franklin County, Illinois and east into southwest Indiana.  A dusting or so of snow possible.
What impact is expected
?  No issues southern half of the region.  Chance of light snow northern half of the area.  Roads will be cold.  If snow does fall it would stick.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the 16 to 22 degree range.
Wind Chill:  10-15 degrees
Winds:  North at 6~12 mph.  Gusts to 12 mph 
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 60% (north half)  IL ~ 60% Carbondale to Marion, Illinois northward.  30% south of there  %   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Perhaps some scattered snow showers north half of the region.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Yes.  Flurries and snow showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 1:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:04 p.m.  Waning Crescent

 

See the winter weather outlook for FULL details and graphics.  You can view that behind the Daily Weather Summary tab on www.weathertalk.com

 

January 5, 2017
Thursday:  Cloudy.  Snow showers likely.  Main area of concern for accumulating snow will be from Perry County, Missouri into Jackson County, Illinois into Williamson County, Illinois into Saline and Gallatin Counties.  From there northward stands the best chance for a dusting to perhaps an inch or two.  Areas south of that line might pick up light snow.  No accumulation to perhaps dusting to one inch.
What impact is expected?  Cold temperatures.  Slick roads where snow develops.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle 20’s northern counties to upper 20’s and lower 30’s elsewhere.  Northern counties would include Perry County, Missouri towards Carmi, Illinois.
Wind Chill:  14-25
Winds:  Northwest and north at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%  north half of southeast Missouri and 40% south half  IL ~ 60% north of Marion, Illinois and 40% chance south of Marion, Illinois   KY ~ 40%  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Scattered or a period of snow showers.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Snow and/or snow showers/flurries possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B for the northern half of the region.  It might snow.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:52 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 11:44 a.m. and moonset will be at -:–   First quarter

Thursday Night:  Cloudy early with a few flurries.  Clearing late.  Bitterly cold.
What impact is expected
?  Wind chill values of 5 above to 15 above.  Frost bite weather.  Will monitor the snow chances.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the 12 to 18 degree range.  If it snows then temperatures of 6 degrees to 12 degrees possible where snow cover exists.
Wind Chill:  5 to 15 degrees
Winds:  North at 6~12 mph.  
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Perhaps some evening flurries or snow showers.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Some snow flurries or snow showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Snow showers and bitterly cold air.  Have a plan B.

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January 6, 2017
Friday:  Partly sunny.  Cold.
What impact is expected?  Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 22 to 26 degree range
Wind Chill:  10 to 20 degrees
Winds:  North at 6-12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%  KY ~ 10%  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.  
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:53 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2

Moonrise 
will be at 12:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:31   Waxing Gibbous

Friday Night:  Partly cloudy.  Bitterly cold.
What impact is expected
?  Monitor updated forecasts as a southern storm system may develop near our region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 10-15 degrees
Wind Chill:  5 to 14 degrees
Winds:  North at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Most likely none, but monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.

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January 7, 2017
Saturday:  Partly sunny.  Cold.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 25 to 30 degree range
Wind Chill:  15 to 25 degrees
Winds:  North at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%  KY ~ 10%  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.  
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:54 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2

Moonrise 
will be at 1:00 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:38   Waxing Gibbous

January 7, 2017
Saturday:  Partly sunny.  Cold.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 25 to 30 degree range
Wind Chill:  15 to 25 degrees
Winds:  North at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%  KY ~ 10%  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.  
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:54 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2

Moonrise 
will be at 1:00 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:38   Waxing Gibbous

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Saturday Night:  Partly cloudy.  Cold.
What impact is expected
?  Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 12 to 18 degrees
Wind Chill:  5 to 12 degrees
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.

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January 8, 2017
Sunday:  Sunny and cold.
What impact is expected?  Morning temperatures and wind chills will be bitterly cold.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 28 to 34 degree range
Wind Chill:  8 to 14 degrees early in the morning.  
Winds:  North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%  KY ~ 0%  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.  
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08  a.m. and sunset will be at 4:55 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2

Moonrise 
will be at 1:45 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:46 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous

Sunday Night:  Clear and cold. 
What impact is expected
?  Most likely none.  Patchy fog, perhaps.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 14 to 18 degrees
Wind Chill: 10 to 18 degrees
Winds:  Variable winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.

See the winter storm outlook for details on a possible wintry event late next week. See the winter storm update on the www.weathertalk.com website for details.   The outlook is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.

More information on the UV index.  Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.Visit their website here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook


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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Here comes the cold air
  2.  Cold wind chills.
  3.  At least some snow possible as we push through the week.

Forecast analysis

Winter outlook has been posted and updated!

Updated on Tuesday afternoon.  Tracking two snow systems.  One on Wednesday night/Thursday and a southern storm system for Friday/Saturday.

The winter outlook can be found on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Sign into your account and click the Daily Weather Summary tab.  I have posted a link and a password behind that tab.

Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon
Confidence:  High

A cold front is sweeping through the area (as of this writing).  The front will exit our eastern counties on Tuesday evening.  Temperatures will continue to fall into the 20’s overnight.

Winds will start to pick up this evening into Wednesday.  Expect some 20+ mph gusts.  This, combined with cold temperatures, will mean low wind chills.

Wind chills on Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon will dip into the teens, from time to time.  It certainly will be bundle up weather.

Here is the 9 AM and 6 PM wind chill charts for Wednesday.

Any remaining rain showers, on Wednesday evening, will exit to the east.  This will leave us with a dry forecast for the rest of tonight into Wednesday.

Highs on Wednesday will remain in the 20’s and 30’s.  Brrr.

How many degrees will temperatures be on Wednesday?  Let’s go to the map!

Our precipitation chances increase late Wednesday night into Thursday.  See the winter weather outlook for details.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  These are updated twice weekly.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  These are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com page.


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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Rainfall totals on Monday evening and night will likely remain in the 0.10″ to 0.30″.  Heavier totals possible in thunderstorms.

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Wednesday morning low temperatures. 

Wednesday afternoon high temperatures

Thursday morning low temperatures.  

Thursday afternoon high temperatures

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Tuesday through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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No major changes to the forecast.

whatamiconcered

Bitterly cold wind chills over the coming days.  For that matter, cold temperatures, as well.

Light snow showers and flurries possible late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Another chance for precipitation on Friday/Saturday, but confidence is low due to the track of the system being so far south.  Monitor updates on the winter weather outlook page.

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our region’s weather patterns.

I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes the following: 

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple…

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.2015-01-15_12-22-08

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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