Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 4, 2016: Cold/cloudy weather for Monday.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.

Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

Logo- Plain JPEG

.

march2015worthamad (2)
Wortham Dental
Care located in Paducah, Kentucky.  The gentle dentist.  Mercury free dentistry.  They also do safe Mercury removal.  You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well

.

2015-03-27_21-14-30

For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

.

2015-03-31_19-52-42

Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here.  Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here

.

2015-10-08_17-58-26

Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.  You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well

.

Final Flight Website Banner 2
Duck/goose decoys?  Game calls?  Optics?  We have you covered!  Click the logo above or visit Final Flight on Facebook, as well.
.
.

I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

2015-12-18_21-14-12

bottomlineitgif

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

 

River Crest Forecasts are posted further down in the blog. 

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Avoid flooded roadways!

Sunday night – Becoming cloudy.  Small chance for a flurry.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 20s
Winds:  North/northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 10% for flurries
Coverage of precipitation
?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams will continue to run high.  Avoid flooded roadways.

 

Monday – Mostly cloudy and colder.  Perhaps some clearing in the afternoon.  Small chance for flurries over our eastern and northeastern counties.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 32 to 38 degree range.
Winds:  North winds at 6-12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 20% for flurries
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams will continue to run high.  Avoid flooded roadways.

 

Monday night – Mostly clear and chilly.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 16-24 degree range
Winds:  Northeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 0%
Coverage of precipitation
?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams will continue to run high.  Avoid flooded roadways.

 

Tuesday – Mostly sunny and chilly.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 35 to 40 degree range.
Winds:  East winds at 5 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams will continue to run high.  Avoid flooded roadways.

 

Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 24 to 28 degree range
Winds:  East winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 0%
Coverage of precipitation
?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams will continue to run high.  Avoid flooded roadways.

 

Wednesday – Perhaps some increase in clouds during the afternoon.  Cold.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 36 to 42 degree range.
Winds:  East/southeast winds at 4-8 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams will continue to run high.  Avoid flooded roadways.

Rain chances return on Thursday and Friday.

 

highverification

2016-01-02_20-53-44

2015-12-30_22-22-55
2015-12-30_22-23-11

2015-03-20_19-08-11
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  River flooding is the concern
2.  Major/historic river flooding will occur over the next four days.  Especially the Mississippi River
3.  Avoid flooded roadways.
4.  Possibly some rain around the 7th-9th of January.
5.  Monitoring for potential winter weather as we head into the second and third week of January.  Long way off.

Like a broken record, the main concern will be river flooding.  This is a serious situation for those near levee’s.  Some levee’s have been weakened by the recent heavy rainfall combined with rising river waters.  Some levee’s have already busted.  If you live near the rivers and/or levee’s then monitor the latest information from emergency management officials.

Looking ahead to the upcoming week:

Calm weather will prevail into the middle of the new work week.  Expect a lot of thick clouds on Monday morning.  Then, perhaps some clearing in the afternoon.

Here is the 950 mb relative humidity chart for Monday morning.  That light blue indicates a decent chance for clouds. Cold air advecting into the region behind a front.

2016-01-03_13-20-13

We should remain precipitation free through Wednesday night.  There is a small chance for a wintry mix late Wednesday night over our western counties.  Believe the chance is less than 20%.

Rain chances will, however, be on the increase as we move through Thursday and Friday.  An area of low pressure will push into the Central United States and then skirt off to our north.  And, you guessed it, that places us on the warm side of the system.  That means rain and not snow.

Rainfall totals should be in the 0.30″-0.60″ range.  Some guidance shows a bit more and some less.  If the low were a bit more wound up then the higher totals might verify.  We still have a few days to monitor the track and intensity of the area of low pressure.

Let’s look at the GFS model guidance.  The trend has been to slow this system down.  And, trends are what a meteorologist looks for when taking into consideration how a system might behave.

This first image is for Thursday night around 11 pm.  You can see some rain in our region.  The rain will have actually moved in earlier than this time shot.  But, you get the idea.  This is the previous six hours rainfall totals.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19

Then, moving ahead to Friday around the lunch hour.  Quite a bit of rain showers in our region.  This is the previous six hour periods rainfall totals.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21

And, then by Saturday the system has exited our region.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24

I am not tracking any significant snow or ice events.  I am watching the second and third week of January for colder air and perhaps wintry weather.  But, that is in the long range and confidence is always lower beyond day 5-7.

Speaking of snow!

It’s that time of the year again!  Starting to hear people tell me their weather channel app (or other sources) are telling them to expect 2″ of snow on day thirteen.  I remind everyone that we can barely forecast snowfall totals one or two days in advance, let alone day TEN!

Here is a great chart that I found online.

On the left you see the big number 28.  That is 28″ of snow.  See the bottom numbers?  Those are the number of days out from the actual event.   Then as you move right the day of the event grows closer and closer.  Until you are at day zero.  The models showed 28″ of snow on day ten.  By the time the storm arrived it ended up producing 9″ of snow.  Models are horrible beyond a certain point (sometimes they are horrible a day or two before an event).  Just remember this when your weather channel app tells you to expect 2″ of snow ten days out.

2016-01-02_16-17-32

 

2015-03-07_17-31-34

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

Clickable map

 

2015-05-28_13-49-52

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

 

winterstorm

No snow anticipated.

 

2014-11-24_13-30-38
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday night – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.

2014-11-03_7-32-16

No major changes in this update.

 

whatamiconcered

River flooding continues to be the main concern.

Monitor the latest crest forecast numbers.

Avoid flooded roadways.

 

willineedtotakeaction

Monitor river stages.

Avoid flooded roadways.

 

wildcard

I suppose the wild card in the forecast will be cloud cover on Sunday night and Monday.  Some forecasts are calling for sunny weather on Monday.  I think we see clouds.  Guess we will see how it goes.  Not much of a wild card!  Not on the wild side, at least.

 

rainfallforecast

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Watching Thursday and Friday for some rain chances.

Here are the expected rainfall totals for the Thursday/Friday system.  This is the WPC map.  It is a little heavier than I went.  But, still some time.  Will keep an eye on it.

hpc_total_precip_mc_27

2014-11-24_13-38-04

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO for the next seven day.

.
No risk of severe weather through next Thursday.

 

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

 

2014-12-21_20-26-42

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

2015-05-28_13-49-52

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

 

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

Comments are closed.