Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 31 and February 1, 2017: Calm into Friday.

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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


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Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

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The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology.  Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage.  Visit them on their website and on Facebook.  You can also find them on Twitter.  They are located in Almo, Kentucky.  Phone 270-718-0245

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Charity fund raiser for Guardian Family Services.  Shane Parker, aka The Bear On The Air, Bear-B-Que Catering Co., will be selling Rib’s for $20 a slab. Preorder by calling 618-524-4357 or 618-645-6444. Pickup Saturday, February 4th at Metropolis Big John’s between 11 am and 2 pm.

Folks, we need to sell every slab, because the money that The Bear On The Air raises, will be matched! That means every $20 becomes $40!!!

All proceeds going to Guardian Family Services, a shelter for domestic violence victims & their children, service six+ southern Illinois counties.

Funds raised matched by the Shadow Angel Foundation in partnership with Beau Dodson Weather.

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users.  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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January 31, 2017

Tuesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds through the night.  Sprinkles possible. Patchy fog.  Cool, but still well above normal in the temperature department.  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Fog.  Perhaps sprinkles.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 32 to 38    IL ~ 32 to 38  KY ~ 32 to 40  TN ~ 35 to 40
Winds
:  Variable winds at 0 to 5 mph becoming northeast and east at 0 to 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 9:11 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:20 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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February 1, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Some early morning fog possible.  Above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.  Small chance for sprinkles
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 46 to 52     IL ~ 46 to 52    KY ~ 46 to 52     TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds
:  East and northeast winds (variable at times) at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:56  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:20 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 9:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:25 p.m. Waxing Crescent


Wednesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Decreasing clouds.  Cool, but nothing out of the ordinary.  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 26 to 34    IL ~ 26 to 34    KY ~ 26 to 34    TN ~ 26 to 34
Winds
:  North and northeast winds at less than 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  22 to 26
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 9:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:25 p.m. Waxing Crescent

The weekend system looks to be mostly rain, again.  Not the snow lovers year.  Active into next week, as well.

Graphic cast for Thursday into the weekend

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More information on the UV index.  Click here

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.



 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Calm weather into Friday night
  2.  Weekend rain maker
  3.  Active pattern into next week

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

The winter weather outlook was updated on Monday, January 30th

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted into text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.

I am looking for weather watchers.  You will need to fill out the form.

Form link https://weathertalk.com/weatherwatcher

Tuesday night into Friday
Confidence:  High

 

February is knocking at the door.  The weather will begin on a calm note.  Nothing dramatic.  Temperatures will be near normal to a bit below normal from Thursday into Friday.  Nothing extreme, but on the chilly side.  Highs on both Thursday and Friday will likely remain in the 30’s to lower 40’s.

I can’t rule out some patchy fog over the coming nights.  Keep that in mind.Temperatures will be near normal to a bit below normal from Thursday into Friday.  Nothing extreme, but on the chilly side.  Highs on both Thursday and Friday will likely remain in the 30’s to lower 40’s.

Temperatures will be near normal to a bit below normal from Thursday into Friday.  Nothing extreme, but on the chilly side.  Highs on both Thursday and Friday will likely remain in the 30’s to lower 40’s.

We will have intervals of clouds over the coming days, as well.  We should remain precipitation-free through Friday night.

 

 

Saturday and Sunday
Confidence:  Medium to high

 

Our next rain maker will spread clouds into the region on Friday night and Saturday.  Rain showers may develop as early as Saturday, but more likely Saturday evening into Saturday night.

 

It appears that most of the precipitation will fall as rain.  I can’t completely rule out some wintry mix over the Ozarks.  This will be determined by how fast the precipitation moves in from the southwest.  At this time, it does not look to be anything significant.

Here is the weather map for 6 pm on Saturday.  Rain showers in Missouri.  Wintry mix way up near Peoria.

Here is the map for Sunday at 12 am.

Here is the map for 6 am on Sunday.

Here is the map for 12 pm on Sunday.  Rain ending from west to east.

Monday into Friday (next week)
Confidence:  Low

Active weather is likely next week.  This could mean thunderstorms.  I would encourage everyone to monitor updates.  Remember, severe weather can occur during the winter months.

Model guidance is indicating at least one or two systems next week.  Both of them could cause issues in our region.

I have been tracking this system for a month.

The models are picking up on a system around the 7th and around the 9th.  That seems a bit complicated.  Normally you have a bit more space in between systems.  Let’s monitor trends.  It could be that the models are not handling the pattern.  It is possible this is one large storm system.  Still early to know for sure.

Here is what the GFS model is showing for Tuesday, February 7th.  Remember, I have been watching the 7th through 10th/11th time frame.  It has always been a matter of nailing the date.  Models are now showing a big system during that time frame.

This track would bring heavy storms into our region.  Still some time to monitor the track and intensity of this one.

The GFS takes the low into northern Illinois.  Cold front trails into Arkansas and Louisiana.

The Canadian model guidance is showing something similar


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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Our next rain maker arrives on Saturday evening into Sunday morning.  Rainfall totals of 0.20″ to 0.50″ will be possible.

The official NOAA rainfall total forecast is below.

Click image to enlarge

NOAA is showing a decent rain for our south and east counties.  It is possible this is a bit overdone.  Some of the guidance is showing a weaker system.

Zoomed in our south and east counties

Zoomed in our north and west counties

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High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Wednesday morning low temperatures

Wednesday afternoon high temperatures


Thursday morning low temperatures


Thursday Afternoon high temperatures

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No major changes.  Adjusted winds and temps.

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No major concerns, at this time

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Monday night through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Small risk for thunder on Saturday night and Sunday morning.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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