Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 31, 2018: Blog update for non-subscribers

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January 31, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast
: Windy.  Mostly sunny during the morning.  Some increase in clouds during the afternoon.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~  54 to 58        IL ~  54 to 56     KY ~  54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph during the afternoon
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy.  A chance of mainly late night rain showers.  Cool.
Temperatures:    MO ~  34 to 38      IL ~ 34 to 42        KY ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered late at night
Wind chill values: 30 to 40
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds:  South becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph.  Gusty winds during the evening
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways (late)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

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February 1, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible over extreme southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.  Lesser rain chances as you move north of Cape Girardeau towards Harrisburg.  Some areas may remain dry.  Turning colder during the afternoon.  Rain may mix with or change to snow showers.  No accumulation to less than an inch accumulation.  Best chance of a little snow accumulation would be across southeast Illinois and western Kentucky.
Temperatures:  MO ~  42 to 46   temperatures may fall during the afternoon    IL ~  40 to 45 temperatures may fall during the afternoon       KY ~  46 to 48 with falling temperatures during the afternoon and evening
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated northern counties.  Scattered to perhaps a band of light rain across extreme southern Illinois/far southeast Missouri into Kentucky/Tennessee
Wind chill values: 25 to 38
Accumulating snow or ice:  No snow accumulation to less than an inch of snow.
Winds:  Winds becoming north and northwest behind the cold front (northern portions of the area).  Wind speeds of 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy early.  Light flurries or snow showers possible across mostly western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.  The rest of the area should dry out fairly quick.  Monitor moisture on roadways as temperatures fall into the upper teens and lower 20’s (some slick spots possible).  Clearing and colder overnight.
Temperatures:    MO ~  16 to 24      IL ~ 16 to 24         KY ~ 20 to 25
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Ending.
Wind chill values: 5 to 15
Accumulating snow or ice: No snow accumulation to less than an inch or snow accumulation.
Winds:  North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor moisture on roads overnight.  It could freeze.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but monitor updates.

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February 2, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Some passing clouds.  Much colder.
Temperatures:  MO ~  28 to 32        IL ~  26 to 34        KY ~  28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds:  North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear early and then increasing clouds late.  Cold.  Snow flurries possible after 2 am.
Temperatures:    MO ~  18 to 24      IL ~ 16 to 22        KY ~ 18 to 24
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Wind chill values: 10 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds:  Light and variable winds.  Winds becoming south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

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February 3, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated rain or rain / snow showers developing across southeast Missouri and spreading eastward during evening hours.
Temperatures:  MO ~  36 to 42       IL ~  36 to 42       KY ~  38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered during the late afternoon and evening
Wind chill values: 30 to 40
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor updates
Winds:  South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor the snow forecast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars.

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain or rain/snow mix.  Rain may change to snow at times.  Temperatures will be marginal for snow accumulation.  This may end up being mostly a rain event, but confidence remains low.  Check back frequently for updates.
Temperatures:    MO ~  30 to 35     IL ~ 30 to 35       KY ~ 32 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: Possible, but confidence is low.
Winds:  South 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps icy roadways, across portions of the region, but confidence on that remains low.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

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February 4, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy. Rain or rain/snow mix likely early in the day.
Temperatures:  MO ~  36 to 42       IL ~  36 to 42        KY ~  36 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 50%       KY ~ 50%       TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered before 10 am and then ending.
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice:  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Winds:  North at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  At least wet roadways.  Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Cold.
Temperatures:    MO ~  16 to 20      IL ~ 16 to 20        KY ~ 18 to 22
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind chill values:  8 to 16
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds:  North 7 to 14 mph with gusty winds possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No.

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February 5, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~  35 to 40       IL ~  34 to 38        KY ~  35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice:  Most likely no
Winds:  North 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None anticipated, at this time.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of snow after 10 pm.
Temperatures:    MO ~  25 to 30      IL ~ 25 to 30        KY ~ 25 to 30
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late
Wind chill values: 15 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds:  South 5 to 10 with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates

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February 6, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain or rain and snow likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~  38 to 44        IL ~  38 to 44         KY ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%      IL ~ 50%       KY ~ 50%          TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor updates
Winds:  North 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain ending as snow.
Temperatures:    MO ~  25 to 30      IL ~ 25 to 30        KY ~ 25 to 30
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind chill values: 15 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

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Wednesday through Thursday night:  There may be a few flurries or snow showers Thursday afternoon as the rain system pulls away from the area.  Little or no accumulation anticipated.

Rain and snow may develop Saturday into Sunday morning.  Some accumulation is possible.  Monitor updates.

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2014-11-24_13-38-04

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Now through next Thursday  No severe weather concerns.

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beausanalysis

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January 31, 2018

Forecast analysis 

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link.

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Forecast:

Sorry for the late update.  I wanted to review the morning data.

Wednesday night into Friday night:

HIGHLIGHTS 

  1.  Windy and mild today (WED)
  2.  Light rain possible tonight into Thursday early afternoon
  3.  Small chance of flurries or a snow shower Thursday afternoon/evening
  4.  Much colder Thursday night into Friday night

High confidence in the forecast through Friday night.

Breezy weather will continue into this evening.  Winds will, however, subside some overnight.

Clouds will continue to increase as we move through this evening and into the overnight hours.  Light rain is forecast to develop late tonight.  Some areas may remain dry during this event.  Rain chances increase the further south you travel.  That would mean Paducah, Kentucky stands a better chance of light rain than say Mt. Vernon, Illinois.

Here is my rainfall totals forecast.

What is the % chance of X amount of rain falling?

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The bulk of the light rain will occur after midnight tonight and before 3 PM Thursday.

Colder air will arrive behind this system.  Rain may briefly change to snow flurries or snow showers.  The best chance of seeing a few snow flakes would be over western Kentucky.  The colder air will likely quickly dry the atmosphere out by Thursday evening.  That should shut down precipitation chances.

The Canadian GEM model shows a dusting of snow across portions of our region.  I am skeptical of this based on ground temperatures and rate of precipitation.  If there were to be accumulation, then I would suspect Kentucky would have the best chance (and even there the risk is low).

Click image to enlarge.
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I will be monitoring wet roadways Thursday evening.  If moisture remains on roads, then patchy slick spots are possible.  Gusty winds may help dry the roads fairly quickly.

Here is my first forecast concerning the February 1st and 2nd precipitation event.

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Here is the NAM model guidance future-cast radar for tonight and Thursday afternoon.  Green represents rain.  Blue would be snow.

The NAM guidance believes the bulk of the precipitation will have ended by 5 PM.

Time stamp is located in the upper left corner of this image.  Click image to enlarge.

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Let’s take a look at the temperature animation.

Time stamp is located in the upper left portion of the image.

This takes us from 6 AM Thursday until Friday 12 PM.  You can see the cold air pushing in from the north.

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Wind chills will be even colder.  Wind chill is what the temperature feels like to your skin.

Here is the 9 PM Thursday wind chill map
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Here is the 6 AM Friday wind chill map
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Low temperatures Friday night will dip into the upper teens to lower 20’s.  Models are showing upper 20’s to middle 30’s.  I don’t see that happening.  I think they are wrong.  I will lean towards my colder low temperatures.
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Saturday into Sunday night:

HIGHLIGHTS

  1.  Increasing chances of rain and snow Saturday into Sunday
  2.  There is a chance of accumulating snow, but confidence on the finer details remains low
  3.  Monitor travel forecasts for the weekend.  Icy roads are possible, but confidence remains low.

Medium confidence there will be precipitation
Low confidence on accumulating snow and ice

We have been tracking these systems for over two weeks.  As always, the devil is in the details.  It is easier for me to forecast an upcoming weather pattern than how an individual system will unfold within that pattern.

Winter storms are particularly difficult to forecast.  The reason for this is because the exact track of the upper level features is what is important. A shift of 25 to 50 miles can completely change a snow forecast to rain.

Our region is known for tricky weather forecasting.

The weekend system will be no difficult.  The details will need to be ironed out.

Over the past 48 hours there has been increasing confidence in a precipitation event starting Saturday and ending on Sunday afternoon or evening.

A lot of forecasters are now starting to talk about this event.

There remain a lot of questions with this event.  Confidence on whether accumulating wintry precipitation will occur probably won’t increase until late Thursday night and Friday morning.  I don’t like to forecast snow totals more than 24 to 36 hours out.  Even then, most forecasts still need adjusting as the storm unfolds.  This is the nature of the beast.

Did you know, a total of 0.10″ of rain equals approximately 1″ of snow.  In other words if you melted one inch of snow, then it would equal approximately 0.10″ of water.  If it rained 0.10″ on a Tuesday night in August, then you probably would wake up and never know it rained.  Do the same in the winter and you have a morning travel headache with school closings.

Slight increases in moisture numbers can mean the difference between a dusting of snow and two or three inches of snow.

With all of that said, let’s break it down.

Let me show you the 500 mb chart for Saturday and Sunday.  What is the 500 mb chart useful for?  It is useful for monitor the jet stream and disturbances/vorticity (think of disturbances as precipitation makers).

Want to learn more about 500 mb vorticity?  Here you go (click here)

This is what I want you to see.

Look towards the Pacific Northwest.  Washington State, to be exact.  See that lobe of yellow and orange colors?  That is a disturbance.

Watch as it moves into the central and southern United States.  See how it teams up with that long arm of blue and yellow/green colors that dive in from the Northern Plains?  We call that phasing.

When southern and northern stream “energy” merge it is called phasing.

Phasing produces large storm systems.  Most of our big winter storms are because of phasing the northern and southern jet stream.

Will this one phase on Saturday and Sunday?  Most of the computer guidance says that it will.

The question is where does it phase?

Where it phases is key to our weather.
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If the system is mature/stronger, then colder air will filter into our region and we will have rain changing to sleet and snow.

Remember, low pressure rotates counter-clockwise.  If the low pressure center tracks to our south and southeast, then we end up on the cold side of the system.  That is where your better snow chances are situated.

Here, let me show you an example (this is just a random weather map and is not current).
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Let’s look at what the GFS and NAM guidance is showing for Saturday and Sunday.

This is the GFS model guidance future-cast radar (precipitation).  This is one of many models.  This is the main run of the GFS (I will show you the ensembles next).

This graphic is showing rain, sleet, and snow developing Saturday morning over southeast Missouri and then spreading into southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

The GFS is showing mostly a frozen event for the region.  Portions of the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee could be rain and snow mix.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Other colors are a wintry mix.
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Let’s look at the GFS ensembles.  Want to learn more about ensembles?  Click here to read more about them.

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What is this graphic showing you?

This is showing you the GEFS (GFS model) ensemble precipitation forecast through Sunday evening.  Again, read about ensembles in the graphic above or the link I provided to you.

Most of the GEFS forecast panels are showing widespread precipitation.  Many of them are showing rain Saturday.  Rain perhaps changing to snow.  Each panel is one run of the GEFS model.

This first graphic is the six hour precipitation totals from 12 PM Saturday through 6 PM Saturday.

Confidence is high that we will have precipitation on radar Saturday.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.
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This next graphic is 12 AM Sunday through 6 AM Sunday

These are the six hour precipitation totals.  The scale can be found at the bottom of the graphic.

Most of the panels are showing widespread rain or snow in our local area.
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What is this next graphic showing you?

This is showing you the GEFS (GFS model) ensemble snowfall forecast through Sunday evening.  Again, read about ensembles in the graphic above or the link I provided to you.

Most of the GEFS forecast panels are showing the potential of accumulating snow.

Click the graphic to enlarge.  Scale is on the right side of the image.

Keep in mind that this is ONE run of the GFS.  The GFS runs four times each day.  Thus, it can change.  As always, use models with caution.  A lot more goes into forecasting than just looking at models.
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Let’s move to another model.

This is the NAM future-cast radar from 7 PM Friday through 7 PM Saturday.  The NAM is warmer and is mostly a rain event through Saturday evening.
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One last model to show you.

This is the EC model guidance.  It is showing rain and snow in the region Saturday and Sunday.

EC has quite a bit of rain in our local area.  Again, this part of the forecast will need to be monitored.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Other colors are a wintry mix.

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Let me show you what some of the models are forecasting for snow totals.

I will show you the graphics, but keep in mind, this isn’t my forecast.  I am simply showing you what the model is spitting out.

The Canadian model shows the higher accumulating snow totals over Kentucky and Tennessee.  Further east/southeast in our region.

Click to enlarge.
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The GFS model shows quite a bit of snow across our region.  Lighter totals further west and north vs south and east.
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The EC guidance says “SNOW, WHAT SNOW”

It shows little to no snow accumulation.  Light grey colors represent a trace of snow.
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Currently my forecast calls for rain developing Saturday and then changing to a wintry mix.  The wintry mix could change back to rain on Sunday, but this will depend on the strength of the upper level features.  This is still an unknown.  Monitor updates.  The forecast will evolve with time.

This is my first graphic showing you snow accumulation probabilities.  This WILL change as confidence in the final forecast increases.  This is a starting point.

There is the potential of wintry precipitation, but confidence is low.

If you have travel plans Saturday through Wednesday, then you should monitor updates.
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The pattern is going to remain active.  Numerous disturbances will track through the region over the coming 14 day period.

There are strong indications of several shots of bitterly cold air during the Month of February.  A prolonged period of cold weather is possible.  If this happens, then electric bills will once again be higher than normal.  Plan accordingly.

Another disturbance will bring additional rain or snow chances Monday night into Tuesday night.  After that, guidance indicates the potential of one or two more precipitation events into next weekend.

This graphic generically, for the time being, covers those events.
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS/Videos/Graphics

(This section requires a subscription).  

Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

February and March outlooks have been updated.

Bonus maps and videos have been updated.

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Monthly costs to run Weather Talk can top $2000.00

Please consider subscribing!

Here are my monthly out of pocket costs to deliver you the weather.
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Do you want more?  How about short and long range outlooks, videos, and more detailed analysis!  You will receive that with your subscription.

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Once subscribed you can choose from four different app/text messages!
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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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Live lightning data ~ click here

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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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