Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 30th and 31st: Winding down a MILD January!

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.

You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


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Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

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Charity fund raiser for Guardian Family Services.  Shane Parker, aka The Bear On The Air, Bear-B-Que Catering Co., will be selling Rib’s for $20 a slab. Preorder by calling 618-524-4357 or 618-645-6444. Pickup Saturday, February 4th at Metropolis Big John’s between 11 am and 2 pm.

Folks, we need to sell every slab, because the money that The Bear On The Air raises, will be matched! That means every $20 becomes $40!!!

All proceeds going to Guardian Family Services, a shelter for domestic violence victims & their children, service six+ southern Illinois counties.

Funds raised matched by the Shadow Angel Foundation in partnership with Beau Dodson Weather.

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users.  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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January 30, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Breezy.  Mostly clear to partly cloudy.  Cool.  Above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Gusty winds.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 32 to 38    IL ~ 32 to 38   KY ~ 32 to 38   TN ~ 34  to 40
Winds
:  South and southwest at 12 to 24 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  20 to 28 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 8:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:16 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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January 31, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 52 to 56    IL ~ 50 to 55   KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds
:  West and northwest 8 to 16 mph before noon.  Winds decreasing to 5 to 10 mph during the afternoon.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:56  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:19 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 3 
Moonrise 
will be at 9:11 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:20 p.m. Waxing Crescent


Tuesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Some increase in clouds.  Cool.  Weak system near the area.  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 32 to 38    IL ~ 32 to 38  KY ~ 32 to 38  TN ~ 32 to 38
Winds
:  Variable winds at 0 to 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 9:11 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:20 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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February 1, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.  Small chance for sprinkles
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 46 to 52     IL ~ 46 to 52    KY ~ 46 to 52     TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds
:  Northerly winds (variable at times) at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:56  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:20 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 9:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:25 p.m. Waxing Crescent


Wednesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Decreasing clouds.  Cool, but nothing out of the ordinary.  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 26 to 34    IL ~ 26 to 34    KY ~ 26 to 34    TN ~ 26 to 34
Winds
:  North and northeast winds at less than 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No

Moonrise will be at 9:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:25 p.m. Waxing Crescent

I am monitoring a winter weather event for Saturday into Monday.  Monitor updates.

Graphic cast for Thursday into the weekend

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More information on the UV index.  Click here

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Gusty winds on Monday night
  2. Fairly tranquil weather into Friday
  3.  A few clouds from time to time
  4.  Weekend storm system

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted into text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.

I am looking for weather watchers.  You will need to fill out the form.

Form link https://weathertalk.com/weatherwatcher

 

Monday night into Wednesday
Confidence:  High

Well, January has certainly been mild.  The majority of the month delivered above normal temperatures.  The long range forecast was for below normal temperatures.  This is why I tell everyone to take long range forecasts with a grain of salt.  I compare them to Vegas.

Here is the graphic that shows the above and below normal temperatures for Paducah, Kentucky.  Each line represents one day.  Orange is above normal and blue is below normal.  Obviously, the above normal temperatures are winning.

The Paducah, KY NWS is almost 8 degrees above normal for the Month of January.  That is incredible.

 

Gusty winds are anticipated on Monday night.  Winds may gust above 30 mph, from time to time.  Temperatures on Monday night and Tuesday will be above normal.  I would imagine this will be a top ten warmest January’s on record.  The NWS will determine that.

Here is the Monday night wind gust map

We should remain precipitation-free on Monday night, Tuesday, and Tuesday night.  There is a small chance for sprinkles late Tuesday night.  Odds favor no precipitation.  There will be an increase in clouds on Tuesday night.  This will occur as a front passes through the region.

Highs on Tuesday will pop into the 50’s across most of the region.  Winds will subside by Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday into Friday
Confidence:  Medium to high

Calm weather is anticipated for Wednesday into Friday.   High pressure will dominate the weather.  Some clouds are possible on Wednesday.  We should, however, remain dry Wednesday into Friday.

Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the 40’s and lower 50’s.  Colder air will filter into the region on Wednesday night through Friday. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday may remain mostly in the 30’s to lower 40’s.  This will be below normal.  Overnight lows in the 20’s and 30’s.

The GFS model guidance shows a few sprinkles or flurries on Thursday night.  The odds are against this.  I will monitor trends.

Friday night into Monday
Confidence:  Medium

A larger storm system will move into the region over the weekend.

An area of low pressure will develop over the Texas Panhandle.  This system will move east and northeast on Friday night and Saturday.  Lift will develop over the region by Saturday and Saturday night.  Clouds will increase and precipitation will develop.

There remain significant questions on temperature profiles for the weekend.  Models have been swinging from rain to snow.  Officially NOAA is showing snow in our region.  They have highlighted this in the long range snow outlook.

There is considerable debate about their forecast.

The track of the area of low pressure and the intensity is in question.  If the low tracks over our region then a mixed bag of precipitation can be expected.  If the low passes to our south then precipitation would likely be snow and a wintry mix.  If the low tracks to our north then we will have mostly rain.

GFS and GEM models have been the coldest and strongest with the area of low pressure.  The EC model guidance has been warm and shows little in the way of winter weather for our local region.

In my opinion, it is still too early to make a call on storm track and intensity.  There are too many variables that have yet to be sampled by the model guidance.  The system is not onshore.  It will take some time for confidence to increase on the outcome of this event.  There is no point in changing the forecast every 12 hours to adjust to model guidance.  At this point, odds favor mostly rain.  Still early.

Let’s look at the GFS guidance

This is the Saturday evening forecast map.  Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink/red/orange would be sleet.

This next image is midnight on Sunday morning.  You can see that the GFS is spreading precipitation into our region.

This next image is for 6 am on Sunday.

As you can see the GFS has a mixed bag for our region.  Again, still too early for confidence on the outcome.

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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Precipitation is not anticipated through Friday.  A small chance for sprinkles.  I am watching Saturday into Monday for a larger storm system.  Rainfall and/or snow totals could exceed a liquid total of greater than 0.40″.

The official NOAA rainfall total forecast is below.  This assumes a fairly far south track for the weekend storm.  This is far from certain.

Click image to enlarge

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High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Tuesday morning low temperatures

Tuesday afternoon high temperatures


Wednesday morning low temperatures


Wednesday Afternoon high temperatures

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No significant changes in this forecast package

 

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No major concerns, at this time

 

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Monday night through Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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