Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 30, 2019: Non-subscriber post. Subscribers, see the post below this one for your update. Cold weather and precipitation chances.

 

 

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January 30, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast
:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of snow showers developing across the northern half of southeast Missouri and portions of southwest Illinois.  A chance of snow flurries or light snow showers a bit to the south and east of there, as well.  Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds.  Cold.  Low wind chill values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:   High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  18° to 22°      SE MO  12° to 14°      South IL  8° to 14°      West KY  13° to 16°       NW TN  18° to 22°
Wind direction and speed:  West and northwest 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.  Highest winds over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  -14 to 10 above zero
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  10%      MO  40%      IL    40%      KY  30%       TN  10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Increasing coverage for some of us from the northwest.
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Yes in the winter weather advisory zone
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Snow showers possible this afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Some icy roads are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Cold wind chill temperatures.  Monitor road conditions where snow fell last night and new snow may fall today.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Yes, it will be bitterly cold.
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   7:00 AM

 

 

Wednesday night Forecast:   Wind chill alert.  A chance of snow showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel 12° to 14°      SE MO  6° to 12°      South IL  -2° to 8°      West KY  8° to 14°       NW TN  12° to 15°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:   -5° to 10°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  20%      MO  40%      IL  40%      KY  30%       TN  30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered.
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   Yes, early.
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  A snow shower possible.
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Some icy roads possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Bitterly cold.  Icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B because of bitterly cold air.
Sunset:   5:17 PM
Moonrise:   2:50 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Crescent
Moonset:   1:10 PM

 

January 31, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast
:  Partly cloudy and cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:   High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  36° to 40°      SE MO  32° to 35°      South IL  25° to 34°      West KY  34° to 36°       NW TN  38° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:  East and southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  15 to 25 above zero
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%      IL    0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:   None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   3 Moderate
Sunrise:   6:59 AM

 

Thursday night Forecast:  Winter weather advisory is possible for some counties in my forecast area.  Monitor updates.  Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow developing.  Some areas may receive only rain.  That is a good possibility.  We will have to monitor the temperatures.  Road surfaces will be cold.  If precipitation develops then it will become icy.  Temperatures will rise above freezing as the night progresses.  The 32+ line will spread southwest to northeast.  Some areas may end up all rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium/high (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT  MO Bootheel  28° to 30°      SE MO  24° to 28°      South IL  20° to 26°      West KY  24° to 28°       NW TN  28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  20 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  50%      MO  50%      IL  60%      KY  60%       TN  60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   It is possible where temperatures remain below freezing.
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Yes, for some counties.
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Icy roads may develop.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Icy roadways are possible in areas that remain cold.  Elsewhere, wet roadways are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  Monitor updates.
Sunset:   5:18 PM
Moonrise:   3:48 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Crescent
Moonset:   1:53 PM

 

February 1, 2019
Friday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain showers early in the morning.  Ending west to east.  Temperatures will continue to rise on southerly winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:   High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  46° to 48°      SE MO  44° to 48°      South IL  40° to 44°      West KY  42° to 45°       NW TN  44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  30%      MO  30%      IL    50%      KY  60%       TN  60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Ending
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Perhaps early in the day.  Temperatures over much of the region will have risen above freezing.
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Temperatures over portions of the region will have risen above freezing.
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Early in the morning, there could be icy roadways.  Temperatures over much of the region will have risen above freezing.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.  Temperatures over much of the region will have risen above freezing.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index:   3 Moderate
Sunrise:   6:59 AM

 

Friday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Not as cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High (70% confidence in the forecast).  Not as cold.
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  32° to 36°      SE MO  30° to 34°      South IL  28° to 32°      West KY  32° to 34°       NW TN  34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%      IL  0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:19 PM
Moonrise:   4:41 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Crescent
Moonset:   2:40 PM

 

February 2, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  54° to 58°      SE MO  53° to 56°      South IL  48° to 54°      West KY  52° to 56°       NW TN  56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 5 t0 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%      IL    0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:   None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   3 Moderate
Sunrise:   6:58AM

 

Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  43° to 46°      SE MO  40° to 45°      South IL  38° to 44°      West KY  40° to 45°       NW TN  43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel 0%      MO  0%      IL  0%      KY  0%       TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:21 PM
Moonrise:   5:31 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Crescent
Moonset:   3:31 PM

 

February 3, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy. Windy.   Some rain showers possible.   Mild for January.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  58° to 62°      SE MO  54° to 58°      South IL  54° to 58°     West KY  56° to 60°     NW TN  58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  30%      MO  30%      IL   30%      KY  30%       TN  30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Some wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.  Some debate on whether we have rain showers.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:57 AM

 

Sunday night Forecast:   Cloudy with rain showers likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High   (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  48° to 52°      SE MO  48° to 50°      South IL  46° to 48°     West KY  46° to 52°       NW TN  46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   60%      MO   60%      IL   60%      KY  60%       TN   60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   5:20 PM
Moonrise:   6:18 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Crescent
Moonset:   4:21 PM

 

February 4, 2019
Monday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain showers.  Thunderstorms are possible.  Mild.  Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  63° to 66°      SE MO  60° to 65°      South IL  60° to 65°     West KY  63° to 66°     NW TN  63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  60%      MO  60%      IL    60%      KY  60%       TN  60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:   Numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.  Gusty winds.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor radars
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:57 AM

 

Monday night Forecast:   Cloudy with rain showers ending.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium   (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  45° to 48°      SE MO  38° to 42°      South IL  35° to 44°     West KY  44° to 48°       NW TN  46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   20%      MO   20%      IL   20%      KY  40%       TN   40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   Ending
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Most likely no.  If there was lightning it would be early evening.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B early
Sunset:   5:21 PM
Moonrise:   6:58 AM
The phase of the moon:   New
Moonset:   5:21 PM

 

February 5, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 55°      SE MO  50° to 55°      South IL  50° to 55°     West KY  53° to 56°     NW TN  53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed:  North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  30%      MO  30%      IL    30%      KY  30%       TN  30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, not yet.  Monitor updates.
UV Index:   2  Medium
Sunrise:   6:57 AM

 

Tuesday night Forecast:   Cloudy with rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium   (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  45° to 50°      SE MO  45° to 50°      South IL  44° to 48°     West KY  45° to 50°       NW TN  45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   60%      MO   60%      IL   60%      KY  60%       TN   60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   5:22 PM
Moonrise:   7:34 AM
The phase of the moon:   New
Moonset:   6:13 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

The wind speed and direction forecast.

 

 

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What exactly is the wind chill temperature?

Wind chill is important.  It is what your body reacts to.

 

 

Wednesday and Wednesday night:  Some light snow showers are again possible Wednesday night.  Accumulation, if any, will be light.

 

Thursday into Friday:  Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible Thursday night.  Warmer air will be pushing into the region and should change all the precipitation to rain late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Roads will be cold.  There could be icy roads Thursday night.  Monitor updates.

We push above freezing region-wide late Thursday night into Friday morning.  Keep that in mind.

 

Friday night into Monday:  No wintry precipitation.

 

Beau’s exclusive eight-day winter weather outlook!

The highest number possible on days 5, 6, 7, and 8 will be twenty-percent.  That is because it is in the long range portion of the forecast.

This product is for subscribers.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

This is for today and tonight’s snow event.  You can see the placement of the snow showers.

Not a lot of accumulation but perhaps a dusting to one or two inches.

 

This includes the Thursday night/Friday morning event.

 

 

Through day seven

 

Here is the latest WPC snowfall totals forecast.

72-hour forecast

Some light totals are possible locally.

 

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?

 

Click here for your interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today through Saturday:  No severe weather concerns.

Sunday into Monday:  Lightning is possible.  Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.  Still too early for certainties.  I am closely watching Monday.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 .

  1.   Cold!
  2.   Additional flurry and snow shower chances tonight.
  3.   Rain and/or a wintry mix to rain Thursday night/Friday morning.
  4.   Large temperature swings the next ten days.
  5.   Thunderstorms may enter the forecast by Monday.
  6.   Busy pattern overall into the middle of February.  Several cold shots in the pike, as well.

 

Current conditions at 11 AM

 

Changes over the last 24 hours.

Small temperature adjustments.  Nothing major.

I increased precipitation chances Thursday night and Monday/Monday night.

I decreased rain chances Saturday night into Sunday night.  Some debate about the timing of showers Sunday night or Monday.

Overall, the pattern looks to remain active over the next three weeks.  Multiple systems to track.

 

 

Confidence in the forecast

High confidence in the forecast today into Thursday afternoon.

Medium confidence in the forecast Thursday night through Saturday night.

Medium confidence in the Sunday into Monday.

Low confidence in the Tuesday morning.

 

Action?

The main concern will be frostbite.  Children will be at higher risk Wednesday morning.  Wind chill values won’t be as cold Wednesday night but it will still be cold.  Those kids who have to wait on buses should be properly clothed.  Frostbite can occur in a short amount of time.

Monitor radars in case snow showers develop this afternoon & early tonight.

Rain and/or a wintry mix changing to rain Thursday night into Friday.

The roads will be cold.  Any wintry precipitation that falls would cause icy roads.

 

 

 

Forecast Analysis and Numerical Model Guidance

Bitterly cold air has invaded the Central United States.  Some incredible temperature readings across the region.

Check out northern Illinois.  These are amazing temperatures.  The wind chill values dropped into the -30’s and -40’s overnight.  They are forecast to reach as low as -50 this morning near Chicago and areas to the north and west. Quite amazing.

Wind chill temperatures at 6 AM

Ours have ranged from +5 to -18 at times.

 

Actual air temperatures as of 6:30 AM

 

 

Here is the wind chill animation for today and tonight.

Some incredible numbers for portions of the USA.

 

There is the chance that an all-time state record could occur tonight across northern Illinois.  The old record is -37 degrees.  We will see.  I suspect some lower 30’s are possible.  Unsure if we reach the record.

Rural areas tend to be much colder than other areas.

Our weather will be calm today.  It will be bitterly cold with only single digit highs across our northern counties.  Southern counties will reach into the balmy teens.

A fast moving weak system arrives tonight.  It will produce some light snow flurries or perhaps snow showers.  Accumulations, if any, will be light.  Zero to one inch.  Same as last night.

Several places last night picked up enough snow to blanket the ground.  Heavy dusting some may call it!  A few spots recorded an inch.

Here are what the models are showing for snow totals.

Remember, these are just models.

I do agree with the placement.  Some areas could see a dusting to an inch or two of snow later today and this evening.

Here is the future-cast radar from the Hrrr guidance.

You can see the small thin band of snow streaking across our region.  Not a lot of room for error as far as the track.

 

 

Hrrr model guidance

NAM 3K

NAM model guidance

Thursday will be calm.

Our next weather system arrives Thursday night.  This will signal a major change in our weather.

Rain and/or a wintry mix will develop across our region Thursday night into Friday morning.  Temperatures will be rising through Thursday night.  The wintry mix will change to rain from the southwest to the northeast.

There is some concern about how cold road surfaces will be during the beginning of the event.

The precipitation coverage should be scattered to perhaps numerous.

It is possible that many of us have plain rain the entire time.  Monitor updates.

Here is how the Wednesday afternoon/evening and Thursday night event looks on the NAM guidance.

Green is rain  Blue is snow.  Pink is a wintry mix.

The timestamp is located in the upper left.

 

 

Another view of the Thursday night event.

You can see the NAM shows a wintry mix for at least a portion of the area.  Rain, elsewhere.

We will need to monitor the 32 degree line.

 

 

We warm up considerably by Friday into Monday.  As a matter of fact, Monday could deliver sixties.  It is amazing to see these wild and chaotic temperature extremes.

A cold front arrives Monday and Monday night.  Showers and even thunderstorms will be possible along the front.  The greatest rain coverage will be Monday into Monday evening.

Here is that system.  It shows up well on the GFS.  Fairly large system.  It will draw air all the way to northern Illinois.  Just an amazing flip.

Here are the forecast temperatures.  We will see if this verifies.  Might be too high over northern Illinois.  Either way, it is a major change from today.

 

 

 

Dew points will be rather high for January.

Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  The higher the dew point numbers the more moisture that is available for showers and thunderstorms to tap into.

I would not be surprised to see thunderstorms with this cold front (Monday).

 

 

Another system may bring additional precipitation into the region as early as Tuesday night/Wednesday.  This is a fast-moving flow.

Here is that system on the GFS.  Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink/purple is a wintry mix.

Date stamp is located in the upper left

 

 

I am tracking multiple systems over the coming weeks.  Busy times ahead for the weatherman.

 

Satellite

Today’s image is an air-mass product.  It shows you how cold temperatures are.

See the arctic air?  I drew some black lines.  Just incredible cold.

 

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Today’s high-temperature forecast

 

Tonight’s low-temperature forecast

 

Tomorrow’s high-temperature forecast

 

Tomorrow night’s low-temperature forecast

 

Here is the latest WPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own in-house long-range forecast graphics further down in this blog update **

Days 6 through 10

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Days 8 through 14

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Here are the daily temperature anomalies, thus far.  How many degrees above or below normal are temperatures?

 

The February update has been posted.  Temperature forecast from the long-range team.

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SPRING OUTLOOK

Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

Temperature and precipitation outlooks

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Long Range Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Let’s look at the temperature anomaly forecast map from the long-range GFS model guidance.

This graphic shows you whether temperatures are forecast to average above or below normal.

Red shades indicate above normal temperatures.  Orange and red indicate much above normal temperatures.

Blue shades represent below normal temperatures.  Purple to pinkish represents much below normal temperatures.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the map animation.

Click the image to enlarge it.

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

.

Winter Outlook!

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December temperature and precipitation outlook

January temperature outlook

February temperature outlook 

Winter snow outlook

 

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 675

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center.   Since 1996, he has performed as a severe weather, fire weather, mesoscale, and lead forecaster at the SPC.   Greg Carbin, welcome to the show!

Also joining us as Guest Panelist is the Lead Forecaster at the Storm Prediction Center, Rich Thompson.  Welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • What really happens during a government shutdown?
  • More hurricane-related fatalities in 2018 than tornado-related fatalities
  • 2018 Hurricane Michael’s aftermath largely ignored by national media?
  • The probability of seeing a Day 3 Convective Outlook “High Risk”
  • and more!

Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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