Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 3, 2019: Non-subscriber update. Subscribers, see the post below this one for your update. Spring weather conditions.

 

 

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January 3, 2019
Thursday Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Some clearing likely NW to SE today.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 42 to 45      IL ~ 42 to 46      KY ~ 42 to 46     TN ~ 43 to 46
Wind direction and speed:  East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy with increasing clouds overnight.  Rain chances increasing south to north.  There could be a light wintry mix with no impact.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 30 to 36     IL ~ 30 to 36      KY ~ 33 to 36        TN ~  34 to 38
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 25
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: None early at night.  Becoming scattered south to north late tonight.
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? I can’t rule out some sleet mixed in with the rain late tonight.  No impact.
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Late tonight there could be damp conditions developing south to north.  Many areas may remain dry for most of tonight.
Sunset: 4:49 PM
Moonrise:  4:56  AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  3:11 PM

 

 

 

January 4, 2019
Friday Forecast
:  Cloudy with widespread rain. A few lightning strikes also possible.  There will be a rain-free area that will pivot north to south through the morning and afternoon hours.  Widespread rain will continue in an arc fashion from south central Missouri into southern Illinois.  See graphics below.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 40 to 45      IL ~ 40 to 45     KY ~ 42 to 46      TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind direction and speed:  North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 35 to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 00%     IL ~ 80%     KY ~ 80%     TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread for portions of the area.  There will be a rain-free area that will pivot through the area, as well.  See graphics below.
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  Small chance
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and check radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Damp conditions and rain will interfere with your activities.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy early with rain showers ending.  Becoming partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 30 to 34     IL ~ 30 to 34      KY ~ 30 to 34        TN ~  32 to 34
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% before 7 PM     IL ~ 40% before 7 PM    KY ~ 40% before 7 PM     TN ~30% before 7 PM
Coverage of precipitation: Ending southwest to northeast
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some wet roadways.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Early in the night, there could be damp conditions.
Sunset: 4:50 PM
Moonrise:  5:53  AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  3:55 PM

 

January 5, 2019
Saturday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny with only a few passing clouds.  Mild.  Spring-like conditions.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 55 to 58      IL ~ 53 to 56    KY ~ 54 to 56     TN ~ 54 to 56
Wind direction and speed:  West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? None
UV Index: 3 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear early.  Dense fog possible.  Some increase in clouds overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 34 to 38     IL ~ 34 to 38      KY ~ 34 to 38      TN ~  34 to 38
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 28 to 34
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:51 PM
Moonrise:  6:45  AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:43 PM

 

January 6, 2019
Sunday Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Patchy drizzle and fog.  Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 44 to 48     IL ~44 to 48   KY ~ 44 to 48    TN ~ 46 to 52
Wind direction and speed: South at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Patchy drizzle
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Drizzle and fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? It is possible that drizzle and fog will make for damp conditions.
UV Index: 3 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mild.  Increasing clouds.  Rain showers developing late at night.  Breezy, at times.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 44 to 48     IL ~ 44 to 48      KY ~ 44 to 48       TN ~  46 to 48
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% towards 7 AM     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage as we move into Monday morning from west to east.
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Some wet roadways late at night.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:52 PM
Moonrise:  7:35  AM New
Moonset:  5:33 PM

 

January 7, 2019
Monday Forecast
:  Mild.   Mostly cloudy.  Windy.  Rain.   A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 56 to 62      IL ~ 56 to 62    KY ~ 56 to 62    TN ~ 56 to 62
Wind direction and speed: South at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 70%     IL ~ 70%     KY ~ 70%     TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and windy conditions.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Damp conditions developing.  Strong winds will also be an issue for your activities.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Cloudy.  Rain ending early.  Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 38 to 44     IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 40 to 44       TN ~  42 to 45
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming more westerly at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% before 7 PM     IL ~ 40% before 7 PM    KY ~ 50% before 7 PM     TN ~ 40% before 7 PM
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.  Ending west to east overnight.
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Some damp conditions are possible early in the night.  Monitor updates.  The timing of the rain ending is still a question.
Sunset: 4:53 PM
Moonrise:  8:17  AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  6:29 PM

 

January 8, 2019
Tuesday Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 54 to 58       IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58      TN ~ 54 to 58
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 33 to 36     IL ~ 33 to 36     KY ~ 33 to 36       TN ~  34 to 38
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor the chance of fog.  Lower visibility if fog develops.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:54 PM
Moonrise:  8:56  AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  7:23 PM

 

January 9, 2019
Wednesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 44 to 50      IL ~ 44 to 48    KY ~ 46 to 52    TN ~ 46 to 52
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 3 Low to medium
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 32 to 36     IL ~ 32 to 36      KY ~ 32 to 36       TN ~  32 to 36
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:55 PM
Moonrise:  9:31  AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  8:21 PM

 

January 10, 2019
Thursday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 46 to 52      IL ~ 46 to 52    KY ~ 46 to 52    TN ~ 48 to 52
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 3 Low to medium
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 32 to 36     IL ~ 32 to 36      KY ~ 32 to 36       TN ~  32 to 36
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:56 PM
Moonrise: 10:03  AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  9:17 PM

 

January 11, 2019
Friday Forecast
:  Increasing clouds.  A rain shower possible late in the day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW (20% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 46 to 52      IL ~ 46 to 52    KY ~ 46 to 52    TN ~ 48 to 52
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Monitor
UV Index: 3 Low to medium
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Cloudy.  Rain showers possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW (20% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 34 to 38     IL ~ 34 to 38      KY ~ 34 to 38       TN ~  34 to 38
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Monitor
Sunset: 4:57 PM
Moonrise: 10:32  AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  10:13 PM

 

January 12, 2019
Saturday Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain showers possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW (20% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 44 to 48      IL ~ 44 to 48    KY ~ 46 to 52    TN ~ 48 to 52
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 t0 1o mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Damp conditions are possible for those outdoors.  Monitor updates.
UV Index: 3 Low to medium
Sunrise: 7:09 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW (20% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 32 to 36     IL ~ 32 to 36      KY ~ 32 to 36       TN ~  32 to 36
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 32
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:58 PM
Moonrise: 11:00  AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  11:10 PM

 

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

Thursday into Thursday night:  Most likely no frozen precipitation.  There are small windows of opportunity for the rain showers to mix with sleet or snow.  The main concern would be 4 AM to 7 AM tonight.  No accumulation if it occurs.

Friday:   Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.  A small chance of a wintry mix before sunrise near Poplar Bluff, Missouri.  No accumulation.

Saturday:   Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Sunday:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Monday and Monday night:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Tuesday:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Wednesday:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Thursday:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

 

 

 

Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Click to enlarge graphics on the blog.

Widespread rain is forecast for Friday into Friday evening.  Highest totals will be over the southern half of the region.

Another rain event is possible Monday.

Here is the broad-brushed rain totals forecast.  Of course, as always, actual totals will vary.

 

 

Add in Monday’s rain event and you get this map

 

 

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

 

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through next Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

 Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 .

 

  1.  Spring-like weather.  Where is winter?
  2.  Rain chances increase Friday into Friday evening
  3.  Mild weekend
  4.  Another storm system with rain by Monda
  5.  Updated January and February outlooks.

 

FORECAST

Today:

We still have clouds in the region.  The visible satellite shows clouds over portions of the region.

Live satellite views.  Click here

A mix of sun and clouds today.

The water vapor imagery shows you where clouds and moisture are located.

You can see the storm system to our east and southeast.  That brought some rain showers yesterday to our southern counties.  It is pulling away.

A new system is going to approach from the southwest later today and tonight.

I went with a mix of sun and clouds today.

Click to enlarge

 

You can also find the clouds on this temperature map.

Those colder areas represent where clouds have cleared.  When clouds clear at night we typically see temperatures fall.

Can you figure out where the clouds have cleared?

Large temperature difference.

 

 

 

Today into Friday:

It will be dry today with some clouds.  Temperatures won’t be all that bad for January.  I doubt anyone (but snow lovers) are going to complain.

 

 

Winter has been a no-show, thus far.  If you were looking for cold weather then you might just stop reading at this point.

The winter forecast was colder than normal and stormier than normal.

The stormier part is verifying.  The cold is certainly not.  Just the opposite in the temperature department.  Widespread above normal temperatures have been the general rule since early December.

Of course, I always remind everyone that long-range forecasting is a bit of skill and a lot of luck.  I am not a huge fan in long-range forecasting.  The skill is just not quite there, yet.

Mild temperatures are forecast today into next week.  Above to much above normal temperatures are anticipated.

Check out the GFS animation of temperature anomalies.  This map shows you where temperatures will be above or below normal.

A lot of red on this animation.  Red would be above normal temperatures.

Date and time-stamp upper left.

 

 

Let me show you the temperature anomaly maps.

This is the month to date temperature anomaly.

Red represents above normal.  Blue and green would be below normal.

Those darker reds to a pinkish/white are well above normal temperatures.

 

 

And here is the last 14 days.  Obviously, we have been above normal in the temperature department.  Winter is a no-show, thus far.

 

 

Our next rain maker is already on the way.  It will arrive late tonight into Friday and linger into Friday evening.

We then dry out through Sunday night.  Another rain maker arrives by Monday.

Here is the GFS model animation showing you our Friday storm system.  Typically, this would be a winter storm for our region.

There just isn’t any cold air to work with.  Thus, this will be a rain event.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.

 

 

 

Here is the higher resolution NAM model guidance.  You can see the rain push into our region late tonight into Friday.  Rain may linger into Friday evening.  It then pulls away southwest to northeast as we move through Friday evening.

Click to enlarge the animations.

Time-stamp upper left.

 

 

Let’s look at rain totals from the model guidance.

There is some question about the higher totals.

 

Here is the GFS

 

Another storm system will move into the region late Sunday night and Monday.  The greatest time period for rain chances will likely be during the day on Monday.

I can’t rule out a thunderstorm but I am not anticipating severe weather.

A fast-moving cold front will move across the region with a band of showers.

It won’t turn colder behind this front.  Temperatures will remain above normal.

 

 

Rain totals from the Monday event should not be all that great.  Mainly in the 0.20″ to 0.40″ range.

 

Friday morning lows and afternoon highs.  Highs will vary based on cloud cover and rain.

Tonight’s low temperatures

Saturday morning lows

 

January and February Outlook Update

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Temperature Anomalies

Let’s look at the temperature anomaly forecast map from the GFS model guidance.

I will keep showing you this graphic animation over the coming weeks.

Red colors indicate above normal temperatures.  Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the map animation.

Click to enlarge.  Date stamp upper left.

A lot of above normal temperatures on this animation graphic.

 

 

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

.

Winter Outlook!

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December temperature and precipitation outlook

January temperature outlook

February temperature outlook 

Winter snow outlook

 

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 675

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center.   Since 1996, he has performed as a severe weather, fire weather, mesoscale, and lead forecaster at the SPC.   Greg Carbin, welcome to the show!

Also joining us as Guest Panelist is the Lead Forecaster at the Storm Prediction Center, Rich Thompson.  Welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • What really happens during a government shutdown?
  • More hurricane-related fatalities in 2018 than tornado-related fatalities
  • 2018 Hurricane Michael’s aftermath largely ignored by national media?
  • The probability of seeing a Day 3 Convective Outlook “High Risk”
  • and more!

Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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