Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 29th and 30th: Chilly weather. Watching 4th through 6th

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


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Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

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Charity fund raiser for Guardian Family Services.  Shane Parker, aka The Bear On The Air, Bear-B-Que Catering Co., will be selling Rib’s for $20 a slab. Preorder by calling 618-524-4357 or 618-645-6444. Pickup Saturday, February 4th at Metropolis Big John’s between 11 am and 2 pm.

Folks, we need to sell every slab, because the money that The Bear On The Air raises, will be matched! That means every $20 becomes $40!!!

All proceeds going to Guardian Family Services, a shelter for domestic violence victims & their children, service six+ southern Illinois counties.

Funds raised matched by the Shadow Angel Foundation in partnership with Beau Dodson Weather.

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users.  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

January 29, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy this evening.  Some decrease in clouds overnight.  Rain or snow showers should have come to an end.  Chilly. 
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Will monitor the potential for some wet roadways.  Patchy black ice would be possible if moisture remains on roadways past 10 pm.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps scattered early in the evening
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No, but monitor road conditions.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 22 to 26    IL ~ 22 to 26   KY ~ 24 to 28   TN ~ 24 to 28
Winds
:  West and northwest at 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty during the evening hours.  Winds west and northwest at 5 to 10 mph late.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  14 to 24 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  Snow showers or flurries ending.  Little accumulation anticipated.  Perhaps a dusting in spots.
Moonrise will be at 7:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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January 30, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Perhaps a better chance of some clouds over northern and southeast portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  Not as cold.  Warmer over southeast Missouri and cooler over our northern counties of southern Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 45 to 52  IL ~ 44 to 48  KY ~ 45 to 50   TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds
:  West and southwest winds 6 to 12 mph.  Some higher gusts possible.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Sunrise will be at 6:57  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:18 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 8:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:16 p.m. Waxing Crescent


Monday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear to partly cloudy.  Cool.  Above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 32 to 38    IL ~ 32 to 38   KY ~ 32 to 38   TN ~ 34  to 40
Winds
:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  20 to 28 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 8:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:16 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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January 31, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 52 to 56    IL ~ 46 to 54   KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds
:  West winds at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:58  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:19 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 9:11 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:20 p.m. Waxing Crescent


Tuesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Weak system near the area.  Small chance for sprinkles.  I will monitor trends.  Nothing significant, either way.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 30 to 35    IL ~ 30 to 35   KY ~ 30 to 35   TN ~ 30 to 35
Winds
:  Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 9:11 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:20 p.m. Waxing Crescent

I am monitoring a winter weather event for Saturday night into Monday.  Monitor updates.

Graphic cast for Wednesday into the weekend

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More information on the UV index.  Click here

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Snow and rain showers ending
  2.  Chilly Sunday night and Monday morning
  3.  Milder temperatures on Monday afternoon into Wednesday
  4.  Precipitation event on February 4th through 6th

 

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted into text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.

 

Sunday night through Tuesday
Confidence:  High

Rain and snow showers will come to an end on Sunday night.  Temperatures will fall into the middle and upper 20’s across the region.

We will need to monitor for black ice on Sunday night.  The overall risk appears small.  If moisture remains on roadways then there could be a few patchy slick spots.  Gusty winds should help dry the roads.

A few clouds possible on Monday.  Dry conditions.  Temperatures will be on the cool side.  Mostly in the 40’s

Dry conditions will continue into Monday night and Tuesday.  A weak system will pass through the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  Perhaps some clouds.  Small precipitation chances.

Tuesday temperature anomalies

 

Wednesday into Friday
Confidence:  Low to medium

A disturbance will pass through the region on Thursday into Friday.  Clouds and some spotty precipitation will accompany the system.  The GFS is showing some wintry mix over portions of the region.  We still have a few days to monitor this part of the forecast.
Here is the GFS precipitation map for Thursday night.  You can see some green colors over our region.  That represents rain.  The other colors represent a wintry mix.
The EC model guidance indicates the system will pass through our region with no precipitation.  Disagreement among the different model packages.  Confidence is rather low on the precipitation chances Thursday into Friday.

I am watching the February 4th through 6th time frame for a stronger system.  The models have been showing this system since last week.

Here is what the GFS model guidance is showing for February 5th.  Again, the GFS has been showing this system for quite some time.  That does add confidence that some type of precipitation event may occur during this time period.

Some other models also have this system.  Here is the Canadian GEM model guidance.  It shows a low passing over our region.  The snow or wintry mix would be to the north of the low.

The GEM model guidance is a tight low pressure system.

Worth monitoring.


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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Precipitation totals from Sunday night through Friday should be minimal.

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 High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Monday morning low temperatures

Monday afternoon high temperatures


Tuesday morning low temperatures


Tuesday Afternoon high temperatures

 

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Lowered temperatures on Monday

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Perhaps some patchy black ice on Sunday night/Monday morning.  Black ice forms when moisture, from rain or snow, remains on roadways and parking lots as temperatures fall below freezing.

 

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Sunday night through Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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