Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 27th and 28th: Chilly. Snow showers Sunday?

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

Logo- Plain JPEG.

2015-03-27_21-14-30

Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

.
2015-10-08_17-58-26
.

Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.

You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


BANNER OPTION 2

Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


.
.

2016-10-30_19-43-57

Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

..

Charity fund raiser for Guardian Family Services.  Shane Parker, aka The Bear On The Air, Bear-B-Que Catering Co., will be selling Rib’s for $20 a slab. Preorder by calling 618-524-4357 or 618-645-6444. Pickup Saturday, February 4th at Metropolis Big John’s between 11 am and 2 pm.

Folks, we need to sell every slab, because the money that The Bear On The Air raises, will be matched! That means every $20 becomes $40!!!

All proceeds going to Guardian Family Services, a shelter for domestic violence victims & their children, service six+ southern Illinois counties.

Funds raised matched by the Shadow Angel Foundation in partnership with Beau Dodson Weather.

———————————————–

The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users.  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

bottomlineitgif

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

.

January 27, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clearing and cold.  Gusty evening winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 24 to 28    IL ~ 23 to 26   KY ~ 24 to 28   TN ~ 24  to 28
Winds
:  West at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph early in the evening.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  20 to 25 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:12 p.m.  New Moon

.

January 28, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds across the region.  Data does indicate an increase in clouds through the day from north to south.  This could cause mostly cloudy conditions as we move through the day.  Lower than normal confidence on cloud cover.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 36 to 40  IL ~ 35 to 40  KY ~ 36 to 44   TN ~ 40 to 45
Winds
:  West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  28 to 35 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? Nothing of any significance   
Sunrise will be at 6:59  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:16 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 7:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:12 p.m.  Waxing crescent


Saturday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Becoming cloudy.  A 30% for flurries or a snow shower.  Chilly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 25 to 30    IL ~ 24 to 28   KY ~ 25 to 30   TN ~ 25  to 30
Winds
:  West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph 
Wind Chill when applicable
:  20 to 25 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No measurable precipitaton anticipated
Moonrise will be at 7:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:12 p.m.  Waxing crescent.

.

January 29, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A 50% chance of rain and snow showers.  Temperatures should rise above freezing.  Can’t rule out a dusting in spots.  I am more concerned about Sunday night when temperatures fall into the 20’s.  Higher coverage of precipitation is forecast for Illinois and Kentucky.  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Perhaps some wet roadways.  Will monitor snow chances and temperatures.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 50%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 35 to 40  IL ~ 35 to 40  KY ~ 36 to 40  TN ~ 38 to 40
Winds
:  North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  20 to 35 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? Snow showers possible.  Temperatures should rise above freezing.  That should prevent any issues.  Sunday night, however, we could have black ice on roadways.  Black ice is simply ice that forms from left over moisture on roadways and parking lots.
Sunrise will be at 6:58  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:17 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 1
Moonrise 
will be at 7:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:14 p.m.  Waxing Crescent 


Sunday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Evening clouds.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  We need to monitor wet roadways.  Falling temperatures could mean slick spots.   Clearing overnight.  Cold.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Will monitor the potential for some wet roadways becoming black ice.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps scattered early in the evening
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No, but monitor road conditions.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 22 to 26    IL ~ 22 to 26   KY ~ 24 to 28   TN ~ 24 to 28
Winds
:  North and northwest at 8 to 16 mph early and then 5 to 10 mph late.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  14 to 24 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  Snow showers or flurries.  Little accumulation anticipated.  Perhaps a dusting in spots.
Moonrise will be at 7:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent

.

January 30, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Chilly.  Will monitor early Monday morning for black ice.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 38 to 44  IL ~ 38 to 44  KY ~ 40 to 45   TN ~ 40 to 45
Winds
:  West and southwest winds 6 to 12 mph.  Gustier winds possible on Monday afternoon.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  35 to 40 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Sunrise will be at 6:57  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:18 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 8:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:16 p.m. Waxing Crescent


Monday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear with some fog possible.  Chilly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Monitor fog chances.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 28 to 34    IL ~ 28 to 34   KY ~ 28 to 34   TN ~ 28  to 34
Winds
:  Southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  20 to 28 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 8:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:16 p.m. Waxing Crescent

.

January 31, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Not as cold.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 46 to 52    IL ~ 46 to 52   KY ~ 46 to 52     TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds
:  
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:58  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:19 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 9:11 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:20 p.m. Waxing Crescent


Tuesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A slight chance for a shower.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather

Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 30 to 35    IL ~ 30 to 35   KY ~ 30 to 35   TN ~ 30 to 35
Winds
:  
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 9:11 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:20 p.m. Waxing Crescent

.

February 01, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 44 to 46    IL ~ 44 to 46  KY ~ 44 to 46    TN ~ 44 to 46
Winds
:  
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Sunrise will be at 6:56  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:20 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 9:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:25 p.m.  Waxing Crescent 


Wednesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear 
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 25 to 30    IL ~ 25 to 30     KY ~ 25 to 30    TN ~ 25 to 30
Winds
:  
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 9:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:25 p.m.  Waxing Crescent

More information on the UV index.  Click here

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 

 

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

..

 

2015-03-20_19-08-11
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Chilly weather, but nothing extreme
  2.  Snow showers on Sunday and Sunday evening
  3.  Black ice on Sunday night?

 

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted into text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.

 

Friday night through Saturday
Confidence:  High

Short update, as I have friends in town visiting.

Friday night will deliver chilly temperatures and some clouds.  Clearing overnight (for those who have clouds).

Clouds may move back in from the north on Saturday.  Chilly temperatures, but still near or above normal for this time of the year.  Highs on Saturday afternoon will rise into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.

 

Saturday night into Monday
Confidence:  Medium to high

 

Rain and snow showers will develop on Sunday morning and afternoon.  This will occur as a disturbance dives into the region from the north.

Perhaps the greatest coverage will be over southwest Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  Less coverage over southeast Missouri.

Temperatures are anticipated to be above freezing on Sunday.  This would limit any significant problems.  I can’t rule out a dusting of snow.

I am more concerned about Sunday night and early Monday morning.  If moisture remains on roadways then some black ice might form.  Black ice is simply moisture left over from precipitation earlier in the day.  As temperatures fall into the 20’s, ice can form on roadways.

Winds on Sunday evening will be gusty.  This might help dry the roads.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

Monday will be cool with partly sunny sky conditions.  Highs mostly in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.

I continue to monitor the long range.  There are four or five disturbances to monitor the first two weeks of the month.  Hard to believe January is almost over.


.2016-11-19_11-50-24
Find me on Twitter

rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Light snow possible on Sunday and Sunday evening.  A dusting or less.  I am more concerned about moisture on roadways.  Moisture might freeze on Sunday night

.

 High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Saturday morning low temperatures

Saturday afternoon high temperatures


Sunday morning low temperatures


Sunday Afternoon high temperatures

2014-11-03_7-32-16

No major changes.

whatamiconcered

No major concerns.

2014-11-24_13-38-04

Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Saturday through next Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

2015-05-28_13-49-52

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

..

2014-12-21_20-26-42

The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

Comments are closed.