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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. These are updated twice weekly.
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Winter storm outlook has been posted. Updated on Saturday, December 31, 2016
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
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January 1, 2017
Sunday Night: Cloudy. Scattered evening rain and drizzle. Patchy dense fog. Showers developing from the southwest to northeast. A rumble of thunder possible late tonight.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Dense fog with low visibility.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40’s Temperatures may slowly rise after 2 am.
Wind Chill:
Winds: East and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 9:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:20 p.m. Waning Crescent
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January 2, 2017
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy, at times. Mild. Showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor updates concerning strong thunderstorms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Uncertainty on high temperatures. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the track of the low. If the low tracks further south and east then you can shave several degrees off the high temperature map. High temperatures in the lower 50’s over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Temperatures rising into the upper 50’s to lower 60’s over the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee. If the low tracks furth north and west then parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will pop into the 60’s, as well.
Wind Chill:
Winds: East and southeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation? Increasing coverage. Becoming numerous to widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updated forecasts. Some storms could become intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m. Waning Crescent
Monday Night: Cloudy. Showers likely during the evening hours. Then, a chance for showers after midnight. A few thunderstorms possible before midnight. Lows will range from the upper 40’s over our northwest counties in southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois. Elsewhere, lows will mainly be in the 50’s.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Temperatures mostly in the 50’s. Mild for January. Temperatures may remain steady through most of the night.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west late tonight. Winds of 6-12 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early and the becoming scattered late.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? The risk for severe weather is small, but perhaps not zero.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m. Waning Crescent
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January 3, 2017
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible. Falling temperatures from west to east as a strong cold front passes through the region. Gusty winds, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures may occur during the morning hours. Temperatures in the 50’s on Tuesday morning will fall into the 30’s and 40’s by afternoon. See graphics in the blog discussion part of the page.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Morning winds west and northwest at 6-12 mph. Afternoon winds west and northwest at 8-16 mph. Gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but falling temperatures on Tuesday afternoon.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m. Waning Crescent
Tuesday Night: Clouds before midnight. Breezy. Some clearing late. Colder. Small chance for a light shower or snow flurry.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 24 to 28 degree range.
Wind Chill: 8 to 16 degrees
Winds: North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Flurries possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
January 4, 2017
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Much colder. Small chance for a snow flurry.
What impact is expected? Cold wind chills.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 28 to 34 degree range. Winds will make it feel colder.
Wind Chill: 10 to 20 degrees.
Winds: North and northwest during the morning at 7-14 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Afternoon winds of 6-12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Perhaps a flurry
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be chilly.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 1:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:04 p.m. Waning Crescent
Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds. A snow flurry or snow shower possible. Cold.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 16 to 22 degree range.
Wind Chill: 10-15 degrees
Winds: North at 6~12 mph. Gusts to 20 mph in the evening.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
January 5, 2017
Thursday: Cloudy. Snow showers possible.
What impact is expected? Chilly. Monitor snow chances.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 20’s
Wind Chill: 14-25
Winds: Northwest and north at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Snow showers possible
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be chilly. Snow showers also possible.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:52 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 11:44 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– First quarter
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with snow showers possible. Cold with low wind chill values.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates. Cold wind chills.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14 to 18 degree range
Wind Chill: 5 to 14 degrees
Winds: North at 6~12 mph. Wind becoming west and southwest late Thursday night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered. Low confidence.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Snow showers and bitterly cold air. Have a plan B.
January 6, 2017
Friday: Partly sunny. Cold.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 25 to 30 degree range
Wind Chill: 15 to 25 degrees
Winds: Variable at 6-12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:53 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 12:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:31 Waxing Gibbous
Friday Night: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 16 to 22 degrees
Wind Chill: 10 to 16 degrees
Winds: Variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Thunderstorms on Monday/Monday night
- Colder air is on the way
- Snow?
- The winter weather has been updated (3 PM Sunday update)
Forecast analysis
Winter outlook has been posted and updated!
Updated on Sunday afternoon. Next update will be on Monday afternoon. I am tracking the mid to late week system next week. Thus, the frequent updates.
The winter outlook can be found on the www.weathertalk.com website. Sign into your account and click the Daily Weather Summary tab. I have posted a link and a password behind that tab.
Sunday night into Tuesday morning
Confidence: Medium
** Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms **
Your interactive radars will be up and running on Monday
Two storms systems will impact our region on Monday and Monday night. An area of low pressure, with an associated cold front, will move into the Dakota’s and Minnesota. A second area of low pressure will develop over Arkansas and move east/northeast into Tennessee.
There remain some questions on the track of the second low. This is important because areas to the east and south of the low will experience a risk for a few severe thunderstorms.
If the low remains to our south and east then we will not have to worry about severe thunderstorms.
Right now, it appears the track of the area of low pressure will be through Tennesse and perhaps south central Kentucky.
Some of the models take the low into the Missouri Bootheel and western Kentucky.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop from southwest to northeast over the region late Sunday night and especially on Monday. A few of the storms could produce moderate downpours. Lightning will be a concern, as well.
The threat of damaging winds and tornadoes is conditional on the track of the area of low pressure. Again, if the low remains to our south and east then we won’t have severe storms.
CAPE values (energy for thunderstorms) might pop into the 200 to 400 range. There will be quite a bit of wind shear with the system and that means turning in the atmosphere. This is why there is an isolated tornado risk over portions of our region. Again, this is conditional on the track of the low.
Monitor updates on Monday morning. I will have a better handle on where the low will track.
Rainfall totals will range from 0.50″ to 1.00″ across the region. Locally heavier totals are likely if thunderstorms train over the same areas.
Monitor updates on Monday
Here is the current severe weather threat matrix for Monday and Monday night. Conditional on the track of the low.
Here is the high-resolution 3K NAM/WRF model future-cast radar. What radar might look like on Monday into Tuesday morning.
6 AM Monday Future-cast radar
12 PM Monday Future-cast radar
3 PM Monday Future-cast radar
6 PM Monday Future-cast radar
12 AM Tuesday Future-cast radar
Tuesday into Wednesday
Confidence: Medium
A cold front will sweep through the region on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Colder air will follow frontal passage. There is some debate about temperatures on Tuesday. For now, I went with 50’s. There is a possibility that 60’s will remain in our south and east counties.
Temperatures will fall as the cold front moves through the area.
Here is the cold front at 6 am on Tuesday
The cold front will move west to east, through our region, on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures on Tuesday night will fall into the 20’s with gusty winds. Wind chills will drop into the teens on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Highs on Wednesday should remain in the 30’s. Cold.
I can’t rule out snow flurries or snow showers with the frontal passage.
12 AM Wednesday temperature map. Notice the colder air to our northwest.
9 am Wednesday temperature map. Cold air has filtered into our local area.
Here is the wind gust map for Wednesday morning. Winds gusting into the 20-25 mph range as the cold air arrives.
I can’t rule out some flurries with the front.
Wind chill map for 6 am on Wednesday
Wednesday night through Saturday
Confidence: Low
The big question, in the extended forecast, is the chance for snow showers on Wednesday into Thursday. Another system on Friday and Saturday could produce precipitation to our south and east. Confidence remains low.
I will update the winter weather outlook this afternoon (Sunday). You can find the outlook behind the Daily Weather Summary tab on the www.weathertalk.com web-site.
I will update it again on Monday.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
North view and south view. Click to enlarge.
Most of this will fall on Monday into Tuesday morning.
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Monday morning low temperatures
Monday afternoon high temperatures
Tuesday morning low temperatures
Tuesday afternoon high temperatures
Some questions on Tuesday afternoon temperatures. Cold air could move in faster than anticipated. This will need to be monitored.
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday into Tuesday morning: Monitor updates. Some storms could become severe. Marginal risk. Isolated damaging wind threat. Isolated tornado threat. Perhaps a few reports of hail. High risk for lightning.
Tuesday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
No major changes to the forecast.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our region’s weather patterns.
I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes the following:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple…
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
