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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
River Crest Forecasts are posted further down in the blog.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Avoid flooded roadways!
Friday night – Calm and chilly.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 20s
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the 42 to 46 degree range
Winds: West at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
Saturday night – Clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 20s
Winds: West/southwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
Sunday – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the 42 to 46 degree range
Winds: Becoming northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
Sunday night – Becoming cloudy. Small chance for a flurry.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 20s
Winds: North/northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
Monday – Cloudy and colder. Small chance for a flurry.
Temperatures: Highs in the 34 to 38 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams will continue to run high. Avoid flooded roadways.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. River flooding is the concern
2. Major/historic river flooding will occur over the next seven days. Especially the Mississippi River
3. Avoid flooded roadways.
4. Possibly some rain around the 7th-9th of January.
4. Watching January 10th through 20th for colder weather and perhaps some precipitation.
The weather is calm. This is great news after our recent wild ride of rain and storms. The pattern has been 2-3 weeks very active and then a few weeks calm. Seems that is going to continue. Most of the upcoming seven days should be calm.
I am watching a system around December 7th-9th. Right now it appears this system would produce rain. Questions arise after that time period. Data continues to point to the potential of a stronger cold shot as we enter the 2nd week of January into the 3rd week of January. And, the model guidance indicates at least a couple of precipitation chances. Too early to know what form that precipitation would take. We are talking about the LONG range. And, as you know, confidence is always lower in the long range. I will be monitoring.
Most meteorologists have been monitoring the second and third week of January for a cold blast.
The big weather story continues to be the rivers. Some great news, over the last few days, is that the crest levels continue to be lowered. In some cases by several FEET! We will take all the good news we can muster when it comes to the river flooding.
I do not see any heavy rain threats in the charts through the upcoming seven days.
Here is the GFS model guidance for next Friday morning. You can see an area of low pressure over Oklahoma and Kansas. This low is moving northeast. Some rain in our area. I suppose if the system moved in during the overnight hourson Wednesday, then it might be cold enough for frozen precipitation. At this point, confidence is low as to the timing.
Snow is confined well to our west and north on Friday morning. Image is from weatherbell.com
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Clickable map
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
No snow anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No major changes in this update.
The main concern for the coming week will be sharp rises on area rivers. Some historic crest numbers are being forecast for the Mississippi River. Large rises are expected on the Ohio River.
Monitor the latest crest forecast numbers.
Avoid flooded roadways.
Monitor river stages.
Avoid flooded roadways.
No wild card in the forecast through 48 hours. Calm weather into Monday.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain in the forecast (or snow)
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO for the next seven day.
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No risk of severe weather through next Thursday.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
