Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 18, 2015: Unusually quiet weather for January

We have our first sponsor for the blog.  Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.  Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates.

Sunday – A chance for some sprinkles or light showers during the wee hours of the morning.  Some morning clouds giving way to sunshine.  Temperatures will be above normal.  Highs will be in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s.  West winds at 5-10 mph.

Sunday night – Partly cloudy.  Above normal temperatures.  Lows will be in the middle 30’s.  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

Monday – Mostly sunny.  Highs will be above normal.  High temperatures will be from 52 to 56 degrees.  South/Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

Monday night –  Partly cloudy sky conditions.  Above normal temperatures.  Lows will be in the middle 30’s.  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

Tuesday – Increasing cloudiness.  Above normal temperatures.  Highs will be in the middle 50’s.  Temperatures may fall late in the afternoon.  South/southwest winds will become northwest during the afternoon.  Wind speeds of 5-10 mph during the morning increasing to 10-15 mph during the afternoon.

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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

 

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

An unusual weather pattern across the United States.  This has been going on for much of January.  A lack of winter storms.  It isn’t very often you see such a lack of winter storms during the middle of winter.  That is the case this year.  MANY areas are below normal in the snowfall department.

It has been cold.  No lack of cold, actually.  But, like I always tell people – cold does not always equal snow.  That has certainly been the case this year.

The weather pattern will continue to be calm over the coming days.

I am watching a clipper system for Tuesday night.  This system will drop down from the Northern Plains and slide into the Ohio Valley.  Perhaps it will spark some light showers.  It will bring an increase in clouds, a shift in wind directions, and slightly cooler air.

Another weather maker is possible towards the weekend.  Rather calm.  Will late January into February be more active?

Did you know that the Weather Observatory is funded by people like you?  I rely on ad’s on this blog and individual donations.  PayPal also allows you to set up a monthly donation.  I have had several people give $5, $10, and $20 a month.  A recurring donation helps keep the weather information flowing.  If you enjoy this blog, the Twitter account, the Facebook interaction, the weather radars, and all of the other information then consider making a donation or setting up a recurring donation (if you don’t  use PayPal then contact me through email about how you can mail your donation) beaudodson@usawx.com   Thank you!2015-01-15_12-47-53

 

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Increased temperatures a little bit today and Monday.  Otherwise, no major changes.

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No major concerns.

 

Check out our newest sponsors $5 meal!  The DQ Grill and Chill (located across from Noble Park in Paducah, Kentucky) is the newest WeatherTalk Blog sponsor!  A local business helping to sponsor the weather information that you have come to love so much.

They also have a Facebook Page and I encourage you to check it out.  DQ Grill and Chill on Facebook

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The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast

Wild card in this forecast – No wild card today!  Calm.

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO

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Will I need to take action?

No.  No significant weather expected today, tonight, or tomorrow.

 

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No significant rain in the forecast.  Some light sprinkles early this Sunday morning (likely before sunrise if it occurs at all)

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Nope.  Nada.  Nothing to track.  Keep checking back!  Our quiet winter continues.

 

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This section of the blog is speculative forecast information.  Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation.  Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.

Not tracking anything of significant for the coming days.

Long range data continues to point to some  cold air as we move towards the end of the month.  Not all the data agrees.  Perhaps we will get some consensus as we move forward.

Not tracking any winter storms for our region.  I will continue to monitor the disturbances that are going to move out of Canada during the upcoming week and next weekend.  Sometimes they push further south than the models indicate.

How about some WeatherBrains?

How about some WeatherBrains?

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.  Just need to finish two Spanish classes!  I am a member of the American Meteorological Society.

I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.

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Regional Radar

 

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Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky.  They have a lot of maps and information on their site.  Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog

 

Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.

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The Weather Observatory

 

Southern Illinois Weather Observatory

WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions

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WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras

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Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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