Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service.  Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.  You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.

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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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I have updated the winter storm probability maps

You can view those here –> www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.

January 13, 2017
Friday Night:  Cloudy.  Patchy fog.  Scattered showers likely.  Drizzle likely.  Portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois may not see much of a rise in temperatures.  Freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and rain will be possible across areas from Wayne County, MO towards Cape G and then perhaps into the Anna area.  Then northeast from there.  Temps near steady.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.   Icy roads possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 28 to 32 near Mt Vernon, Illinois to 34 to 38 near the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
Wind Chill:  20 to 30
Winds:  East and northeast winds at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%  (lower over the Bootheel) IL ~ 60% (higher over northern counties)   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread (north)
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Freezing rain is possible over portions of SE MO and southern IL.  Check temperatures before you head out.  Temps may not move much.
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset will be at 5:00 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:51 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

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January 14, 2017
Saturday:  Patchy fog. Cloudy.  Showers likely.  Perhaps some remaining freezing rain towards the Missouri Ozarks and Mt Vernon, IL area.  Monitor updates. 
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps some wintry mix north.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures will range from the lower to middle 30’s near Mt Vernon to 42-46 along the Kentucky and Tennessee Border/Bootheel.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80%  IL ~ 70%  KY ~ 70%  TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely across most of the area. Again, monitor our far northern counties (Mt Vernon/Farmington area)
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  
Sunrise will be at 7:06  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:01 p.m.
UV Index: 0 
Moonrise will be at 7:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:35 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Saturday Night:  Cloudy.  Fog possible.  Showers possible.  Perhaps not as widespread as during the day.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Monitor for ice over our far northern counties.  Monitor lower visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures in the lower 30’s near Mt Vernon, IL to the middle to upper 30’s in the Bootheel and the Kentucky/Tennessee State line area.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph  
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor the Farmington, MO to Mt Vernon, IL zone.
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   Have a plan B.

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January 15, 2017
Sunday:  Cloudy.  Patchy showers possible.  Less coverage than previous days.  A bit warmer, but still cool.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s near Mt Vernon, IL to the middle and upper 40’s over the rest of the area.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  East at 4 to 8 mph.  Gusts to 10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%  KY ~ 30%  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars. 
Sunrise will be at 7:06  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:02 p.m.
UV Index: 0 
Moonrise will be at 8:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Sunday Night:  Cloudy.  Fog possible.  Small chance for a shower.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Fog could reduce visibility.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 38 near Mt Vernon to 46 over west KY/Bootheel/NW TN
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  East winds at 5 to 10
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Should be okay.

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January 16, 2017
Monday:  Cloudy.  Mild.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing through the day and evening.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures 56 to 64.  Well above normal.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 60%  KY ~ 60%  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation?  Depending on the timing of the cold front we could  have widespread showers and some thunderstorms.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B esp late morning into evening.  Will need to watch the timing of the front.
Sunrise will be at 7:06  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:03 p.m.
UV Index: 0 
Moonrise will be at 9:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:50 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Monday Night:  Cloudy.  Mild.  Breezy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 52 to 62.  Mild for January.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South winds at 10-20 mph.  Gusty.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~80%  IL ~ 80%   KY ~ 80%   TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread.  Monitor timing of the front.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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January 17, 2017
Tuesday:  Cloudy.  Breezy.  Some question as to when the cold front moves through the region.  If the front is still to our west then there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Lower confidence on Tuesday.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Low confidence.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures from 55 to 62 and then perhaps falling late in the day.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South and southwest winds becoming west at 10-20 mph.  Gusty.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%  KY ~ 40%  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Monitor
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B, but monitor updated forecasts.  This might change.
Sunrise will be at 7:05  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:04 p.m.
UV Index: 0 
Moonrise will be at 10:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:22 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Tuesday Night:  Cloudy.  Some showers possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 38 near Mt Vernon to 42 over west KY/Bootheel/NW TN
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  West and northwest at 8-16 during the evening and then 4-8 after 10 pm
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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January 18, 2017
Wednesday:  Partly cloudy and cooler.
What impact is expected?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 40’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%  KY ~ 10%  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 7:05  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:05 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 2 
Moonrise will be at 11:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:54 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Wednesday Night:  Mostly clear.  Cool.
What impact is expected?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 36 to 44 degrees
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 5 to 10
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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January 19, 2017
Thursday:  Mostly sunny. 
What impact is expected?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 50’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Variable winds 5 to 10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%  KY ~ 0%  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No 
Sunrise will be at 7:04  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:06 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 2
Moonrise will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 11:25 a.m.  Last Quarter

Thursday Night:  Mostly clear. 
What impact is expected?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 40 to 45
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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January 20, 2017
Friday:  Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%  KY ~ 0%  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? 
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
Sunrise will be at 7:04  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:07 p.m.
UV Index: 0 
Moonrise will be at 12:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:57 a.m.  Waning Crescent

Friday Night:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 38 near Mt Vernon to 46 over west KY/Bootheel/NW TN
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 5 to 10
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   Unlikely, but monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

More information on the UV index.  Click here

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.Visit their website here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

To register and receive the winter weather outlooks, please visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

These totals are from 6 am Friday through 6 am Saturday

Click to enlarge these images from weatherbell.com

These totals are from 6 am Saturday through 6 am Sunday

These totals are from 6 am Sunday through 6 am Monday

These totals are from 6 am Monday through 6 am Tuesday

These totals are from 6 am Tuesday through 6 am Wednesday

 

 And, if you add them all up

Click to enlarge

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

No major changes

 

There could still be some ice over our northern and northwest counties over the next 12 to 24 hours.  Mainly Friday night.  Everyone should warm above freezing by Saturday.

We will need to monitor temps on Saturday night in the Mt Vernon, IL area.

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes the following: 

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple…

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.