Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 12th & 13th: Ice event for portions of the region.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

Logo- Plain JPEG.

2015-03-27_21-14-30

Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

.
2015-10-08_17-58-26
.

Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.

You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


BANNER OPTION 2

Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


.
.

2016-10-30_19-43-57

Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

..

2015-12-18_21-14-12

I have launched a new weather texting service!  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service.  Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.  You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.

.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.

bottomlineitgif

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

.

 

I have updated the winter storm probability maps

You can view those here –> www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.

January 12, 2017T
Thursday Night:  Cloudy.   Falling temperatures.  Evening showers and thunderstorms possible (mainly over far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee.   Late Thursday night, as temperatures fall below freezing, there might be some freezing drizzle over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.  Freezing rain may develop over areas further south.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps some freezing drizzle or freezing rain over northern portions of the region.  Freezing rain possible late tonight and Friday morning for areas further south in southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and perhaps northwest Kentucky.  The rest of the area should monitor temperatures, as well.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 28 to 32 degrees north to 32 to 36 degrees over west Kentucky, Missouri Bootheel,  and northwest Tennessee.
Wind Chill:  24 to 34 degrees
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 50% (60% far southeast Missouri)  IL ~ 50% (60% southern seven counties)  KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Isolated north and scattered/widespread south
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Freezing rain is possible tonight across portions of the area.  Where temperatures fall below freezing will, of course, have freezing rain.  Freezing line will be near the Ohio River late tonight and on Friday morning.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
Sunset will be at 4:59 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 5:35 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:00 a.m.  Full moon

.

Weather Talk Link

January 13, 2017
Friday:  Cloudy.  Freezing rain likely before 2 pm over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, northwest Kentucky, and perhaps portions of western Kentucky.  Tough call on the exact placement of the 32 degree line.  Near the Ohio River seems likely.  Monitor updates.  Some ice is possible in the region on Friday into Saturday morning.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Freezing rain.  Sleet.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures will have a large spread across the region.  Upper 20’s to lower 30’s over our northern counties and 40’s over our southern counties.  Where the front settles is key to precipitation type from county to county.
Wind Chill:  20 to 30 in the freezing rain zone
Winds:  Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.  
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%  KY ~ 70%  TN ~ 70%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Scattered to widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Freezing rain and sleet likely across portions of the region.  Monitor updates and advisories.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  
Sunrise will be at 7:07  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:00 p.m.
UV Index:

Moonrise 
will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:51 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Friday Night:  Cloudy.  Showers likely.  Temperatures may slowly rise through the night.  Freezing rain will change to rain in most areas.  Northern and northwestern counties will need to be monitored temperature wise (including Poplar Bluff, MO area).   Monitor updates.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Wintry precipitation possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures from the upper 20’s near Mt Vernon, Illinois to the middle 30’s to lower 40’s over portions of west Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and west Tennessee.  LOW confidence on temperatures Friday night.  Changeable numbers are possible.  Temperatures may rise into Saturday morning ever so slightly.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps widespread (north)
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Freezing rain ending from east/south spreading north and west.
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

.

January 14, 2017
Saturday:  Cloudy.  Showers likely.  Perhaps some remaining freezing rain towards the Missouri Ozarks and Mt Vernon, IL area.  Monitor updates. 
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps some wintry mix north.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the lower 30’s near Mt Vernon and in the 40’s over west Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel,  and west Tennessee.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%  KY ~ 60%  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Scattered to perhaps widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  
Sunrise will be at 7:08  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:01 p.m.
UV Index:

Moonrise 
will be at 7:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:35 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Saturday Night:  Cloudy.  Rain showers possible.  The thinking is that temperatures should be above freezing over much of the area by Saturday night.  Monitor updates.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures in the middle 30’s to lower 40’s from north to south in the region.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Northeast at 5 to 10 mph  
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Precipitation should have changed to all rain in the region
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.  Have a plan B.

.

January 15, 2017
Sunday:  Cloudy.  Scattered showers possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s towards Mt Vernon and perhaps in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s over western Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.  Low confidence on placement.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Variable winds 5 to 10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%  KY ~ 40%  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  
Sunrise will be at 7:08  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:02 p.m.
UV Index:

Moonrise 
will be at 8:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Sunday Night:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 38 near Mt Vernon to 46 over west KY/Bootheel/NW TN
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 5 to 10
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   Unlikely, but monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

More information on the UV index.  Click here

See the winter storm update on the www.weathertalk.com website for details.   The outlook is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.
If you don’t have an account then be sure and sign up at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Tonight at 7 pm  Beau Dodson Weather Facebook Page

.

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.Visit their website here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

.

.



2015-03-20_19-08-11
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Wintry mix possible
  2.  Warming trend for the weekend
  3.  Another rain event Monday/Tuesday

Forecast Analysis 

The Winter Weather Outlook has been updated.  Please see that on the Weather Talk website.

You can find that outlook on the Weather Talk website behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Email me if you have questions  beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

Thursday night
Confidence: High

Colder air will continue to filter into the region.  By Friday morning temperatures will have fallen into the upper 20’s near Mt Vernon to the lower to middle 30’s over northwest Tennessee.

The freezing line may make it all the way to the Ohio River.

6 am Temperature forecast map

Watch and warning map – Click Here

Friday morning through Friday night
Confidence:  Medium

The next question will center on the Friday morning into Friday night forecast.  Once again, where the freezing line settles is the important question.

Freezing rain is likely to develop late Thursday night into Friday afternoon across portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.

Impact is highly uncertain.  The reason that impact is uncertain is because of warm road conditions and warm ground conditions.  Temperatures were in the 70’s today.

Surfaces will be slow to cool.

Bridges and overpasses will freeze first.  Then, with time, perhaps other roadways will become slick.  Use care.  Sidewalks might look wet, but it could be ice.

Some accumulation of ice is likely on trees and power lines.  Those who have been following the winter weather outlook have had plenty of warning about this event.

Accumulations won’t be extreme.  I continue to forecast trace amounts of ice to perhaps 0.20″.  Then, I can’t rule out spots of slightly higher amounts.  Missouri Ozarks can always pick up a bit more ice than other areas.

This is not enough to cause widespread damage in our local area.  Small branches might be impacted.  Power lines are made to handle these ice totals.  When you start getting into the 0.50″ range and above is when you have widespread power outages.

Isolated power issues could occur if a dead branch falls on a line.

Here are the 7 am Friday morning temperatures

3 PM temperature forecast

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

To register and receive the winter weather outlooks, please visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.


.2016-11-19_11-50-24
Find me on Twitter

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

These totals are from now through next Wednesday evening.

Moderate to heavy rain possible Monday/Tuesday as yet another system moves into the area.  Wet seven days ahead of us.

Click to enlarge

These are the NOAA/WPC forecast totals.  The heaviest band may still shift around a bit.  Monitor updates.

North and south view of totals through next Wednesday night

 

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Friday morning low temperatures

Friday afternoon high temperatures

Saturday morning low temperatures

Saturday afternoon high temperatures

2014-11-24_13-38-04

Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Friday into Sunday:  Severe weather is currently not anticipated.

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
.

2014-11-03_15-49-30

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

2014-11-03_7-32-16

No major changes

whatamiconcered

Monitoring the potential for ice on Thursday night into Friday night (perhaps Saturday morning). Complicated temperature forecast.  The 32 degree line will need to be closely monitored.  How far south it drifts will make all the difference in precipitation type across the region.

Monitor watches and warnings.

2014-12-21_20-26-42

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
.
.

2015-05-28_13-49-52
Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our region’s weather patterns.

I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes the following: 

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple…

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.2015-01-15_12-22-08

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

Comments are closed.