Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 11, 2018: Winter Storm. Sleet, freezing rain, and maybe snow.

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January 11, 2018

Evening Update

Join me on Facebook later this evening.  I will be hosting a live question and answer session.

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Link to that page – Click Here

The daily outlook can be found at the bottom of this post.

Forecast

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

These local city radars have a winterize button above them.  Use that and it will show you where the freezing rain, sleet, and snow is occurring.

Here is what that button looks like
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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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Watch that first step late tonight and tomorrow.  Ice is likely.
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Tonight into Friday night

A powerful cold front will sweep through the region tonight.  This front will drop temperatures 20 to 30 degrees within a one to two hour time-frame.

Check out the temperature map as of 2:30 PM

Wow!  What a temperature contrast ahead and behind the front.
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The front should reach southeast Missouri between 5 pm and 7 pm.  Southern Illinois between 7 PM and 9 PM.  Western Kentucky between 9 PM and 12 AM.  Rough estimates.

Here are my forecast times for the front.  Keep in mind, it could be an hour or two off.

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You will know when the front arrives.  Gusty winds and rapidly falling temperatures will accompany it.

The rain may be heavier right ahead of the front, as well.

Rain will change to freezing rain and sleet tonight and will last into Friday morning.

Thunderstorms are possible with the freezing rain and sleet.  We will call that thunderice.

It is unclear as to whether the cold layer will become deep enough to change everything over to snow.

I did include snow in the forecast, but totals should be light.  There is the chance of heavier snow developing over western Kentucky.  Confidence is low.  If that does occur then some areas could easily pick up two to four inches of snow (on top of the ice).

The best chance of snow may end up over southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

Sleet totals of one to two inches are likely.   Freezing rain totals of 0.05″ to 0.25″ are possible.  We will need to monitor the freezing rain to sleet transition.  If the freezing rain lingers then some areas could experience tree branches breaking and short term power outages.

Roads will become icy late tonight into Friday.  What falls will stick.  What falls will also be around into early next week.

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories have been issued for all of the area.

A winter storm warning means there should be somewhat higher totals vs the winter weather advisory.

The end result will be the same.  Icy roads and surfaces.

Pink is the winter storm warning zone.  Purple is the winter weather advisory zone.  Again, all the same end result.  Icy roads
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Bitterly cold air this weekend into early next week.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive Monday and Monday night.  Lows by Tuesday should drop into the single digits and perhaps below zero.  Below zero readings are more likely if we have snow and ice on the ground.

A light snow event is possible on Monday.  Right now it appears that a one to three inch snow event is possible.  Still early for certainties.  Monitor updates.

Arctic cold front arrives on Monday.  Monitor updates.

Here is the temperature forecast map into tonight.  What an amazing cold front!  Wow.

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Here is the NAM 3K high resolution model guidance future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.  Red is freezing rain.  Pink and purple would be sleet.  Blue is snow.

Time stamp top left of image.

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Here is the sleet total forecast (below).  This is from the NAM model guidance.  This gives you a rough idea.  It won’t be exact.

Bottom line is there will be icy roads late tonight into Friday (and the weekend).

Most of the precipitation will occur tonight into Friday morning.  Tapering off from west to east on Friday late morning and afternoon.

Sleet forecast totals

What is sleet?
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Thunderstorms are possible with sleet tonight and Friday morning.
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Freezing rain is also possible.

What is freezing rain?
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Freezing rain totals forecast.  Totals will vary greatly depending on when the freezing rain changes to sleet.
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Here is the snow forecast.  Confidence in snow totals remains LOW.  Just not sure how much snow will fall with this system.
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Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook
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Here are my latest freezing rain, sleet, and snow probability maps.

T-1″ means a trace to one inch.

I have separated the freezing rain and snow totals from the sleet.  This is likely going to be a big sleet event.

Sleet forecast

Widespread one to two inch sleet amounts are anticipated.  That will cause icy road conditions.
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Freezing rain and snow.

The snow part of the forecast remains uncertain.  Low confidence on the snow totals.
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A fast moving system could deliver light snow to portions of the region on Sunday night and Monday.  It is still early to know the exact track of the system.

Bitterly cold air behind the front.  Tuesday morning lows of -5 to 10 above.  Wind chills even colder.

These numbers will need adjusting moving forward.

T-1″ means a trace to one inch.

Sometimes these type of systems overachieve.  Let’s monitor trends.
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January 11, 2018
Thursday night Forecast Details
Winter Storm Alert
Forecast
:  Rain.  A thunderstorm possible.  Rain changing to freezing rain and sleet.  Freezing rain and sleet may be heavy at times.  Accumulation likely.  Lightning is possible with the freezing precipitation.  Icy roads developing.  Turning sharply colder.  Rapidly falling temperatures.  Breezy. 
Temperatures
:    MO ~  15 to 25     IL ~  16 to 24      KY ~  24 to 30
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 100%    IL ~ 100%    KY ~ 100%    TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widespread
Wind chill values: 12 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice:  Yes.  
Winds
:  Becoming west and northwest at  10 to 25 mph with higher gusts likely
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.  Icy roads, sidewalks, and surfaces.   Lightning. 
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:  Have a plan B

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January 12, 2018
Winter Storm Alert
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Sharply colder.  Freezing rain and sleet early.  Freezing rain and sleet may end as a brief period of snow.  Sleet accumulation of one to two inches possible.  Freezing rain accumulation of 0.05″ to 0.20″.  Locally higher totals possible.  Snow accumulation of a dusting to an inch or two.  I will need to monitor the snow part of the forecast, especially over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky.  Some guidance indicates a longer period of snow.   Precipitation will end from southwest to northeast as we move through the day.  We may still be dealing with snow during the afternoon/evening hours in western Kentucky.
Temperatures:  MO ~  25 to 30       IL ~  25 to 30      KY ~  26 to 34  (a wide range of temps possible)
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 90%    KY ~ 100%   TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
Wind chill values:  10 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice:  Yes.
Winds:  North 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads.  Brief power outages possible.  Icy surfaces.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Snow showers possible.  Precipitation ending.
Temperatures:    MO ~  15 to 20     IL ~  15 to 20      KY ~  14 to 18
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 60% ending    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending from west to east.
Wind chill values: 0 to 15
Accumulating snow or ice:  Yes.
Winds:  North at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads and surfaces.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  Have a plan B

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January 13, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Colder.
Temperatures:  MO ~  24 to 28       IL ~  22 to 26      KY ~  22 to 26
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  Flurry possible.
Wind chill values:  10 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice:  Unlikely
Winds:  North at 10 to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cold.  Temperatures will vary based on snow and ice cover.
Temperatures:    MO ~  8 to 14    IL ~  6 to 12      KY ~  6 to 14
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Wind chill values: -5 to 10
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds:  North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  Have a plan B

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January 14, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly  cloudy.  Colder.  Snow showers possible over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures:  MO ~  22 to 26       IL ~  22 to 26      KY ~  22 to 26
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Spotty snow showers possible.
Wind chill values:  10 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor
Winds:  Variable wind 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads will likely remain
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds.  Snow showers possible.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:    MO ~  15 to 20     IL ~  15 to 20      KY ~  15 to 20
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered flurries or snow showers
Wind chill values: -5 to 10
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Roads may still be icy
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  Have a plan B
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January 15, 2018
Monday Forecast Details

Low confidence on possible snow accumulation late Sunday night into Monday night.

Winter Weather Possible
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Windy.  Snow developing.  Blowing snow possible.  Temperatures falling during the afternoon.  Temps will depend on placement of the cold front.
Temperatures:  MO ~  25 to 30       IL ~ 25 to 30      KY ~  24 to 28
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Wind chill values:  10 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice:  Yes.  Accumulation of snow is possible.
Winds:  South wind at 7 to 14 mph becoming west and northwest at 10 to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Snow ending.  Windy.  Bitterly cold.
Temperatures:    MO ~   2 below to 10     IL ~   5 below to 8 above      KY ~   3 to 10
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: -12 to 8
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor
Winds: West and northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Blowing snow.  Icy roads possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  Have a plan B

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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Live lightning data ~ click here

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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

 

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