Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 11, 2017: Mild! Winter storm THU night into SAT morning?

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I have launched a new weather texting service!  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service.  Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.  You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.

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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.

The winter weather outlook will be posted around 5:30 pm or 6:00 pm

 

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog


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January 10, 2017
Tuesday Night:  Windy.  Cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially early.  Mostly dry late.  A few storms could produce strong winds.  Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Gusty winds.  Maybe lightning.  Patchy fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 35 near Mt Vernon to the middle to upper 40’s over western Kentucky.  Middle to upper 40’s possible near Poplar Bluff into the Missouri Bootheel and, northwest Tennessee, and southern Kentucky counties.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Southwest to west at 10-20 mph and gusty before midnight.   Winds becoming variable at 6 to 12 mph after midnight
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%  
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered early and then isolated after 11 pm.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?  Small risk.  Not a zero risk.  Mainly for southern Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B in case showers linger.
Sunset will be at 4:57 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:01 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous

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January 11, 2017
Wednesday:  Cloudy. Becoming windy, again.   Rain showers likely during the morning.  A chance for scattered showers during the afternoon.  Rumble of thunder possible.  Mild for January.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Strong winds during the afternoon and evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle 50’s in Mt Vernon to middle 60’s over west Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Winds:  Southerly winds (SE, S, SW) at 7 to 14 mph during the morning and increasing to 20 to 40 mph late in the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%  KY ~ 60%  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  None
Is severe weather expected?  No.  Lightning possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor.  Showers possible.  Have a plan B in mind.
Sunrise will be at 7:07  a.m. and sunset will be at 4:58 p.m.
UV Index:

Moonrise 
will be at 4:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:03 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous

Wednesday Night:  Cloudy.  Mild. Windy.  Spotty showers possible.  Steady or perhaps rising temperatures overnight.  
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.  Strong and gusty winds.  Winds above 40 mph possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures early in the evening.  Temperatures should rise through the 50’s overnight and into the 60’s for portions of the region by Thursday morning.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.  Isolated higher winds possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.  Rain is possible.

Complicated forecast Thursday into Sunday.  A frontal boundary in or near the region might mean a wide range of temperatures.  I can’t rule out a wintry mix over portions of the region late in the week.  The boundary and temperatures will need to be closely monitored.

I will be monitoring for the potential of heavy rain, as well.

Significant adjustments are possible in the overall forecast.

January 12, 2017
Thursday:  Cloudy.  Warm.  Windy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 58 to 66 degree range
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%  KY ~ 50%  TN ~ 50%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Scattered to perhaps widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  None
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor.  Rain is possible.   Have a plan B in mind.
Sunrise will be at 7:07  a.m. and sunset will be at 4:59 p.m.
UV Index:
0 to 1
Moonrise 
will be at 5:35 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:00 a.m.  Full moon

Thursday Night:  Cloudy.  A chance for showers.  A thunderstorm possible.  Turning colder late.    Temperatures over our northern counties may fall below freezing with freezing rain and sleet developing.  Monitor the winter weather outlook.  There remain questions about how far south the cold air will travel on Thursday night.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.   Lightning.  Freezing rain and sleet (portions of the area)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 30 degrees north to 42 degrees over west Kentucky and Tennessee.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Variable winds becoming more northwest and north at 7 to 14 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Perhaps over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  This will need to be closely monitored.  Low confidence on the position of the front late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

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January 13, 2017
Friday:  Cloudy.  Showers likely south.  Freezing rain and sleet middle of the area and northern counties.  Draw a line from near Cape Girardeau, MO across extreme southern Illinois from there northward stands the best chance for a wintry mix.  South of that line uncertain and confidence is low.  Very low confidence on where the 32 degree line will settle.  Monitor updates.  Some ice is possible in the region on Friday into Saturday morning.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Freezing rain.  Sleet.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures will have a large spread across the region.  Perhaps 40’s or even 50’s south of the cold front and lower to middle 30’s north of the front.  Where the front settles is key to precipitation type from county to county.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Variable winds at 6 to 12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%  KY ~ 70%  TN ~ 70%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Freezing rain and sleet likely across portions of the region.  Monitor updates and advisories.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  
Sunrise will be at 7:07  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:00 p.m.
UV Index:

Moonrise 
will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:51 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Friday Night:  Cloudy.  Temperatures may rise late Friday night.  Rain likely south of the stationary front.  A wintry mix to the north of the front.   Monitor updates.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Wintry precipitation possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures from the upper 20’s near Mt Vernon, Illinois to the upper 30’s and lower 40’s over portions of west Kentucky and west Tennessee.  LOW confidence on temperatures Friday night.  Changeable numbers are possible.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Variable wind direction at 7 to 14 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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January 14, 2017
Saturday:  Cloudy.  Rain.  Perhaps a wintry mix over our far northern counties of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (Farmington to Mt Vernon).  Temperatures should rise above freezing area-wide on Saturday.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Perhaps some wintry mix north.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 30’s near Mt Vernon and in the 50’s over west Kentucky and west Tennessee.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  East winds and variable winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%  KY ~ 50%  TN ~ 50%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  
Sunrise will be at 7:08  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:01 p.m.
UV Index:

Moonrise 
will be at 7:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:35 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Saturday Night:  Cloudy.  Rain showers likely.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  I will be monitoring temperatures to see how far north the freezing line pushes on Saturday.  Perhaps all the precipitation will have changed to plain old rain by Saturday afternoon or evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Variable winds at 7-14 mph.  
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Precipitation should have changed to all rain in the region
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.  Have a plan B.

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January 15, 2017
Sunday:  Cloudy.  A chance for showers and perhaps thunderstorms.  
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s towards Mt Vernon and perhaps in the 50’s as you travel south.  Low confidence on temperatures for Sunday.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph.  
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%  KY ~ 50%  TN ~ 50%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Scattered to perhaps widespread as a new cold front moves into the region.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  
Sunrise will be at 7:08  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:02 p.m.
UV Index:

Moonrise 
will be at 8:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Sunday Night:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.   Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 44 to 48 degrees.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph.  
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   Unlikely, but monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

More information on the UV index.  Click here

See the winter storm update on the www.weathertalk.com website for details.   The outlook is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.
If you don’t have an account then be sure and sign up at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Rain showers and mild temperatures.  Windy again Wednesday afternoon and night.  Gusts above 40 mph once again a possibility.
  2.  A few thunderstorms possible over the coming days
  3.  Severe weather risk?  Unlikely, but I would encourage you to monitor updates.
  4.  Winter storm Thursday night into Saturday morning for portions of the region.  Closely monitor updated information on watches, warnings, and advisories.

Forecast Analysis 

I updated the winter storm probabilities on the Weather Talk winter weather outlook.  It still appears a wintry mix will be possible late Thursday night into Saturday morning over portions of the region.  The key word is portions.  It appears freezing rain will be the primary concern with some sleet, as well.

Some areas will remain all rain, keep that in mind.  The further north you travel the greater the odds for measurable freezing rain and sleet.

There remain significant questions about how far south the freezing line will push on Thursday night and Friday.  Of course, this is key to where frozen precipitation falls.   Monitor updated forecasts.  Changeable forecasts are likely.

Check out this graphic.  This is one of the weather models.  The red line is the 32-degree line.  Forecasting something like that will be almost impossible.  Let’s hope the freezing line is a little more straight forward.  If it is wavy like that then the forecast is all that more complicated.

Headache forecast for meteorologists!

 

I will keep the winter weather outlook updated each day.  I will try and post it before 3 pm.  You can find that outlook on the Weather Talk website behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Email me if you have questions  beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

Tuesday night and Wednesday

Confidence:  High

Check out today’s water vapor satellite image.  That is a mid-latitude cyclone.  Deep area of low pressure well to our north.  Tight pressure gradient over our local area.  That is why the winds are so strong.

Those lines are equal lines of pressure.  Isobars.  They are closely packed together.  That equals strong and gusty winds.

 

Look at the moisture feed from the Pacific Ocean on the water vapor satellite loop.  Can you see how it curls into the low over Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin?  Impressive.

Click for a larger image

Breezy conditions are going to continue into Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Gusts on Wednesday could top 40 mph, as well.

Here is the wind gust map for 12 am Wednesday and the second image is for 6 am on Wednesday

6 am

Winds pick up again on Wednesday mid-morning into the evening

This is the 6 pm wind gust map for Wednesday

Here is the 9 pm Wednesday wind gust map.  Again, strong winds for Wednesday/Wednesday night.

 

There will be a chance for a few showers Tuesday evening, but rain chances should diminish through the night.

A morning band of showers should push northward through the region on Wednesday morning.  Scattered showers possible both Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.  There will be a little bit of instability.  I can’t rule out a rumble of thunder.

Thursday
Confidence:  Medium to high

A cold front will push southward through the region on Thursday and Thursday night.  Temperatures will cool behind the front.  This opens up the possibility for a wintry mix late Thursday night into at least Friday night.

The front will help produce showers and scattered thunderstorms on Thursday.  Gusty winds, as well.  Right now the severe weather risk appears minimal.  I would suggest monitoring updates.  There will be some instability to work with.  Overall, the severe weather risk appears low.

Rainfall totals from Tuesday night through Thursday vary considerably on the models.  I am thinking 0.20″ to 0.40″ with pockets of higher totals possible.

A heavier band of precipitation may develop Thursday afternoon and evening.  This would occur along the front.

Here is what the model data is showing for rainfall totals.  This is from now through 6 pm on Thursday

This is the NAM model output for rainfall totals.   You will notice some differences in the guidance.

This is the model output from the GFS model

This is the model output from the GEM model guidance

Obviously, there are differences in totals.  Some of the model guidance is showing the cold front producing a heavier band of rain over our region as it drifts southward on Thursday.

Confidence is not all that great on rainfall totals.  Confidence is high that we will have showers and perhaps some thunderstorms in the area through Thursday evening.

Thursday night through Sunday
Winter storm potential for portions of the region
Confidence:  Low to medium

The forecast becomes quite complicated as we move into Thursday night, Friday, and Saturday.

The next item of interest is the ice storm that everyone is talking about.  Rumors are flying in all directions.

People are posting raw model ice maps.  That is not forecasting.  Typically you can cut those numbers in half.  There are many factors that go into forecasting freezing rain accumulation.

Temperature, temperatures before the event, wind, rain rate, convection that may or may not occur, and duration.  Just because a model shows 1″ of freezing rain does not mean that 1″ of freezing rain will accumulate on trees and power lines.

Again, typically I cut the numbers by 50 or 60%.  That means if a model is showing 1″ of freezing rain then you might end up with 0.40″ to 0.60″.  Again, there are many factors in the forecast other than just raw model totals.

Temperatures will fall on Thursday night into Friday.  Temperatures will dip below freezing over our northwest and northern counties first.  That would include Farmington, MO to Carmi, IL.  Then, with time, the front will continue to sag southward into parts of Kentucky.

Where the front stalls is key to the rain and ice line.  It appears that at least portions of our region will have to deal with freezing rain and sleet.  Most likely this would be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Confidence, at least for now, remains low on the exact placement of the 32 degree line.

Southerly winds will boost temperatures on Friday night and Saturday.  The freezing line should push northward over time.  That will change the wintry mix to all rain.  This will be for the entire area.

Temperatures should rise above freezing area-wide by Saturday afternoon.

There remain a lot of questions about the wintry part of the forecast.  Monitor updates, watches, and advisories.  Portions of the region will likely be placed in some type of NWS advisory.

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

To register and receive the winter weather outlooks, please visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com page.


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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Tuesday night through Thursday at 6 pm

Click to enlarge

These are the NOAA/WPC forecast totals.  The heaviest band may still shift around a bit.  Monitor updates.

This map is through Tuesday, January 17th.  That is quite a bit of rain for the central United States.

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Wednesday morning low temperatures

Wednesday afternoon high temperatures

Thursday morning low temperatures

Thursday afternoon high temperatures

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Tuesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Small risk for lightning.

Wednesday through Wednesday night:  I can’t rule out storms on Wednesday night.  Monitor updates.  Lightning possible.

Thursday and Thursday night:  Monitor updates.  Storms are possible.  CAPE numbers are in question.  If CAPE was higher then I would be concerned about severe weather.  Thus, monitor updates.

Friday into Sunday:  Monitor updates.

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Update rain chances and temperatures.

whatamiconcered

Gusty winds are possible late Monday night into Tuesday.  Gusty winds may remain with us into Thursday.  Wind gusts could top 40 mph.

I will closely monitor thunderstorm chances for Tuesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday.
Locally heavy rainfall totals are possible over the coming seven day period.
I will be monitoring for the potential of snow, sleet, and freezing rain late this week (see the winter weather outlook for details)

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our region’s weather patterns.

I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes the following: 

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple…

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.2015-01-15_12-22-08

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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