Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 1, 2017: Monday thunderstorms. Cold air to follow.

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I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service.  Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.  You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  These are updated twice weekly.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.

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Winter storm outlook has been posted.  Updated on Saturday, December 31, 2016

Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab

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WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

December 31, 2016

Remainder of the afternoon:  Scattered showers will end from west to east.  Cool temperatures in the 40’s.  Gusty winds from the west and southwest.
Saturday Night
:  Cloudy.  Spotty showers ending.  Patches of fog possible.  Drizzle possible.  Freezing fog possible in areas that clear out and see temps fall below freezing.  Temperatures will be marginal in those areas for issues.  Temps may even rise as clouds move back into the areas that had clouds clear early in the evening.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Monitor for patchy dense fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:
High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 30 to 35 range north and west (SE MO and south IL) and 34 to 38 elsewhere.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Winds variable at 3-6 mph.  Winds will become more northerly and northeasterly late tonight.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%  KY ~ 40%  TN ~ 40% (mostly before midnight)
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered early in the night.  Ending.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No, but slight risk for freezing fog late tonight over SE MO and south IL
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Damp and cool for outdoor events.
Sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 8:39 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:21 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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January 1, 2016

Near Year’s Day
Sunday:  Patchy morning fog.  Isolated showers or drizzle possible.  Especially over Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impact is expected?  Perhaps wet roadways.  Some patchy fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  Northeast and east at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%  KY ~ 20%  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Isolated to scattered.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 9:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:20 p.m.  Waning Crescent 

Sunday Night:  Cloudy.  Scattered showers possible.  Temperatures may rise late Sunday night into Monday morning as winds become more southerly. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps patchy fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 40’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph.  Winds becoming more southerly after midnight.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
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January 2
, 2016
Monday:  Mostly cloudy.  Breezy, at times.  Mild.  Showers developing.  Some thunderstorms.  The concern for strong storms is mainly for the Bootheel of Missouri into Kentucky and Tennessee. 
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor for potential strong storms over our southern counties of the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  South at 6-12 mph.  Gusts above 25 mph possible after 11 am.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%  KY ~ 60%  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Scattered to perhaps numerous.  Timing of the system will need adjusting
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updated forecasts.  Some storms could become intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates. 
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m.  Waning Crescent 

Monday Night:  Cloudy.  Breezy.  Showers and thunderstorms.  A few strong storms possible.  Mild for January.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor for potential strong/severe storms over our southern counties of the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee (mainly early)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Temperatures may rise into the 60’s before midnight.  Steady temperatures.  The speed of the cold front will have to be monitored.  Colder air arrives behind the front.  Warm air ahead of the front.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Southwest to west at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Winds near thunderstorms might be higher.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Perhaps numerous
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  I can’t rule out a few strong to severe storms.  This would mainly be from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
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January 3
, 2016
Tuesday:  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front.  The timing of the frontal passage from northwest to southeast is a bit uncertain.  Some guidance brings the front into the region on Tuesday morning and other guidance holds off until Tuesday afternoon.  Temperatures will fall behind the front.  Mild temperatures on Tuesday morning.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the lower to middle 60’s.  Temps may fall over portions of the area during the afternoon and evening)
Wind Chill
Winds:  Southwest becoming west/northwest at 6-12 mph.  Gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%  KY ~ 30%  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Perhaps scattered.  Some question on coverage for Tuesday.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m.  Waning Crescent 

Tuesday Night:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Turning colder.  A slight chance for a few snow flurries.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s
Wind Chill:  15 to 25 degrees
Winds:  North at 8-16 mph and gusty
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
: None to isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Flurries possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates

 

January 4, 2016
Wednesday:  Mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Temperatures holding steady.
What impact is expected?  Cold wind chills.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 30’s
Wind Chill:  18-30
Winds:  Northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%  KY ~ 20%  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation

Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Flurries possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be chilly.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 1:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:04 p.m.  Waning Crescent 

Wednesday Night:  Mostly cloudy.  Colder.  Snow flurries possible.
What impact is expected
?  Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the 20 to 25 degree range.
Wind Chill:  15-20 degrees
Winds:  North at 4~8 mph.  Gusts to 12 mph in the evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

 

January 5, 2016
Thursday:  Cloudy.  Snow flurries possible.
What impact is expected?  Chilly
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the lower to middle 30’s
Wind Chill:  18-30
Winds:  Northwest and north at 6 to 12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%  KY ~ 20%  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
? None to isolated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Flurries possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be chilly.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:52 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 11:44 a.m. and moonset will be at -:–   First quarter

Thursday Night:  Mostly cloudy.  Colder.  Snow flurries possible.
What impact is expected
?  Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the upper teens and lower 20’s
Wind Chill:  10-16 degrees
Winds:  North at 4~8 mph.  Gusts to 12 mph in the evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Perhaps isolated to scattered.  Low confidence.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

See the winter storm outlook for details on a possible wintry event late next week. See the winter storm update on the www.weathertalk.com website for details.   The outlook is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.

More information on the UV index.  Click here
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Damp and cool
  2.  Thunderstorms on Monday/Monday night
  3.  Bitterly cold air Tuesday night into next weekend
  4.  At 2 pm on Saturday the Winter weather outlook was updated

 

Forecast analysis

Winter outlook has been posted and updated!

Updated on Saturday afternoon.  Next update will be on Sunday afternoon.  I am tracking the mid to late week system next week.  Thus, the frequent updates.

The winter outlook can be found on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Sign into your account and click the Daily Weather Summary tab.  There you will find a link and password to view the outlook.

 

Saturday night into Sunday
Confidence:  High

Cloudy.  Cool.  Damp.  That about sums up the next 36 hours.  Rain showers will continue to diminish into Saturday night and Sunday morning.  I can’t completely rule out some spotty showers into Sunday night.

Here is a tower-cam view from Jason Darnall’s house.  Benton, Kentucky (Saturday at 1 pm).

Rainfall totals from Saturday night through Sunday night should be a trace to less than 0.10″.  Most of the rain will have fallen already (on Saturday morning/afternoon).

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Sunday night into Tuesday morning
Confidence:  Medium

** Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms **

The Storm Prediction Center has not placed us in a severe risk for Monday/Monday night.  I believe they will.  I continue to monitor parameters that point to at least some risk.
A stronger storm system will move into the region on Monday and Monday night.  The models have been horrible on this system.  At one point the GFS model guidance had the area of low pressure passing to our south.  I threw that model guidance out the window.  Finally, the models have come into agreement that the low will track well to our north and west.  There might be rain all the way into nor

The area of low pressure will likely track into Minnesota and Wisconsin.  This places us in the warm sector of the storm.  Typically the warm sector is on the east and southeast side of the area of low pressure.  The cold area would be north and northwest.

Since we will be in the warm sector there will be a chance for thunderstorms.

Wind fields with this particular event are not outrageously impressive.  With that said, there will be some CAPE.  CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to work with.  The higher the CAPE numbers the great the risk for severe weather.  CAPE is just one ingredient.  Wind shear is another ingredient.  Wind shear will be sufficient for sustained updrafts.

It appears that the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee will need to monitor for the potential of a few strong thunderstorms.  This would mainly be on Monday afternoon and Monday night.

Temperatures will rise into the 60’s on Monday afternoon and will remain there into the night.

The main concern will be a few storms producing damaging winds and isolated tornado risk.  This event is still 36-48 hours away (depending on when you read this weather update).

Let me show you a few graphics that point towards severe weather.

Here is the SPC tornado ingredients from the SREF model guidance.  The bulls eye is the highest risk zone.  Our region continues to show up on the edge.  Much like the last few severe weather events, this one has the potential to produce some isolated reports of severe weather in our local region.

Let’s take a look at the dew point map.  Remember, a dew point of 60 and above, during the winter months, is a red flag.  Red flag meaning it is an ingredient for severe weather.

Check out these amazing temperatures for Monday afternoon into Tuesday

This first image is for 12 pm on Monday.

This next image is for 6 pm on Monday.

This next image is for 12 am on Tuesday.  The NAM keeps mild temperatures in our region through Tuesday afternoon.  The GFS, however, brings in cooler air on Tuesday afternoon.  Some timing differences.

CAPE values.  This is 3 pm on Monday.  This may not look like much, but it only takes 100 to 300 J kg numbers for problems (during the winter months).

Future-cast radar for Monday does show some afternoon storms.

Let’s keep an eye on Monday afternoon and night.  I do think SPC needs to bring the risk zone into portions of my forecast area.

Future-cast radar for 12 pm on Monday.  Spotty showers and thunderstorms.

This next image is for 3 pm on Monday

Bottom line:  Monitor updates.  I do believe we have a marginal risk for severe weather.

Tuesday into Wednesday
Confidence:  Medium

A strong cold front will move through the region on Tuesday afternoon and night.  Colder air will follow the frontal passage.  Gusty winds, as well.

Here is the cold front on Tuesday’s weather map

Temperatures by Wednesday morning will have dipped into the 20’s

Not extreme, gusty winds will, however, make it feel colder

Thursday morning lows

Friday morning lows

Wednesday night through Saturday
Confidence:  Low

The winter storm outlook has been updated on posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  It is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.

I will keep the winter outlook updated each day.  A new post, in other words.

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

North view and south view.  Click to enlarge.

Most of this will fall on Monday and Monday night/Tuesday morning

Weatherbell.com image source

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Sunday morning low temperatures

Sunday afternoon high temperatures

Monday morning low temperatures

Monday afternoon high temperatures

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Saturday night through Sunday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Monday into Tuesday morning:  Monitor updates.  Some storms could become severe.  Marginal risk.  Isolated damaging wind threat.  Isolated tornado threat.  Perhaps a few reports of hail.  High risk for lightning.

Tuesday night through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
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2014-11-03_15-49-30Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Updated temperatures and wind speed.  Otherwise, no major shifts from the previous forecast update.

whatamiconcered

I am monitoring Monday into Tuesday morning for severe thunderstorms.  Monitor updates moving forward.

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our region’s weather patterns.

I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes the following: 

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple…

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.2015-01-15_12-22-08

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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