Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 9th and 10th: Rain by the weekend.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.

You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


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Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

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The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology.  Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage.  Visit them on their website and on Facebook.  You can also find them on Twitter.  They are located in Almo, Kentucky.  Phone 270-718-0245

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next).  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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February 9, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some evening clouds. Clearing.  Not as cold as Wednesday night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify
Temperatures:  MO ~ 22 to 28  IL ~ 20 to 28   KY ~ 23 to 28   TN ~ 23 to 28
Winds:  North becoming south and southeast at 5 to 10 mph early and then 7 to 14 mph late
Wind Chill when applicable:  20 to 25
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 4:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:40 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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February 10, 2017
Friday 
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Breezy.  Warmer.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected
? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 55 to 60  IL ~  52 to 58    KY ~ 54 to 58    TN ~ 56 to 62  
Winds
: South at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts likely
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:47  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:30 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 3
Moonrise 
will be at 5:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:26 a.m. Full moon

February 10, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Patchy fog possible.  Drizzle possible late.  Becoming cloudy.  Not as cold.  A 20% of a shower after 4 am.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated. Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated to perhaps spotty.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52   IL ~ 46 to 54   KY ~ 48 to 54   TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds:  South and southwest winds 12 to 24 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? None
Moonrise will be at 5:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:26 a.m. Full moon

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February 11, 2017
Saturday 
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy. A 50%~60% for light drizzle and spotty showers.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected
? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered spotty showers
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel plans.  Have a plan B (just in case)
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 66  IL ~  58 to 64    KY ~ 60 to 65    TN ~ 60 to 65  
Winds
: South at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:46  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:31 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 1
Moonrise 
will be at 6:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:08 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Cloudy.  Some light showers likely. Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, I would not cancel, but have a plan B.  Spotty light showers are a possibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 56 to 62   IL ~ 56 to 62    KY ~ 56 to 62    TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds:  South and southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? None
Moonrise will be at 6:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:08 a.m. Waning Gibbous

 


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More information on the UV index.  Click here

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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.



 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Analysis

What a beautiful photograph of the Tuesday evening thunderstorms.  These are the storms that produced hail and at least one tornado warning (Lyon and Trigg Counties of western Kentucky).  Golf ball size hail was reported in the tornado warning area.  Some reports of tree damage, as well.

Thank you Eric Butz (for sending me this photograph).  Eric is looking north/northeast towards Golconda, Illinois.

Click the photo for a larger view.

Thursday night into Friday night
Confidence: Medium

Hey look, it is actually snowing somewhere!  These photos are from New York City.  They were posted on Twitter.

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Well, at least it is snowing somewhere.

Our weather:

Calm weather.  No precipitation anticipated.  It will be on the cool side Thursday night and Friday morning.  Temperatures will push above normal on Friday afternoon.

Friday temperatures

Gusty winds on Friday and Saturday.  This might be a bit overdone, but you get the general idea.  Gusts into at least the 20’s.

Friday morning

and Saturday noon

Saturday and Sunday
Confidence: Medium to high confidence

Expect rain showers to increase late Friday night and especially on Saturday and Saturday night.  Numerous showers are anticipated for Saturday.  If you have outdoor plans on Saturday or Sunday then plan on showers.

Rain showers will continue into Saturday night and Sunday.  Some discussion about coverage on Sunday.  GFS guidance shows quite a bit of coverage on Sunday, as well.  EC guidance does not show as much.  For now, plan on showers both days.

Severe weather is not anticipated with this particular event.

Saturday 9 AM.  NAM GUIDANCE FUTURE-CAST RADAR

Saturday 3 PM.  NAM GUIDANCE FUTURE-CAST RADAR

Sunday 12 PM.  NAM GUIDANCE FUTURE-CAST RADAR
Sunday 12 PM.  NAM GUIDANCE FUTURE-CAST RADAR
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Find me on Twitter
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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?
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We do have some additional chances for rain this week.  At this time, numerous showers are possible on Saturday and Saturday night..

Still a bit early for high confidence on totals.  Models are showing a trace to  0.30″.

Plan on some showers on Saturday and Saturday night.  Rain may linger into Sunday, as well.

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High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Friday low temperature forecast

Friday afternoon high temperature forecast

Saturday low temperature forecast

Saturday high temperature forecast

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whatamiconcered

No major concerns.
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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thursday night through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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No major changes.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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