Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 7th and 8th: Cooler air moving into the region.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.

You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


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Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

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The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology.  Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage.  Visit them on their website and on Facebook.  You can also find them on Twitter.  They are located in Almo, Kentucky.  Phone 270-718-0245

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next).  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog


Tuesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
: Isolated storms early in the evening over southeast Illinois into western Kentucky.  Some of the storms could produce small hail before 9 pm.  Small tornado risk.  Lingering clouds overnight.  Cooler.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Isolated lightning and hail.  Small tornado risk.
Is severe weather expected?  Storm threat should have ended by 9 pm  Small hail possible during the evening.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated storms possible early in the evening.  Small hail possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No, but monitor radars
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 38 to 44  IL ~ 38 to 44   KY ~ 38 to 45   TN ~ 38 to 45
Winds:  Becoming north and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 2:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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February 8, 2017
Wednesday 
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers.  A small chance for a thunderstorm over south central Kentucky.  Cooler.   A large temperature difference from north to south.  Mt Vernon may remain in the upper 30’s.  Parts of west KY and TN may rise into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s.  Keep this in mind.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Some wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected
? No.   Slight chance for pea size hail over Kentucky.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered showers and light rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.  Have a plan B in mind.  There could be some rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  ** LARGE temperature spread on Wednesday ** MO ~ 36 to 54  IL ~  36 to 54    KY ~ 40 to 54    TN ~ 48 to 54  
Winds
:  North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  Unlikely.  Small risk for rain/snow mix with no accumulation over northern parts of southern Illinois.
Sunrise will be at 6:49  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:28 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 1
Moonrise 
will be at 3:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous


Wednesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
: Rain showers ending.  Perhaps a rain/snow mix or snow showers with little to no accumulation as precipitation comes to an end and cooler air moves into the region.  Black ice possible where moisture remains on roadways, sidewalks, and parking lots.  This is especially true over northern parts of southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Watch for patchy black ice in areas that receive rain showers on Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 50% before 8 pm   KY ~ 40% before 8 pm  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.  Some rain showers possible early in the evening.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 22 to 28  IL ~ 22 to 28   KY ~ 24 to 28   TN ~ 25 to 30
Winds:  North at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? Early in the evening ~ Rain/snow mix over northern and eastern counties.  Little to no accumulation.
Moonrise will be at 3:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.



 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Analysis

Tuesday night through Sunday
Confidence: Medium

A few heavy storms on Tuesday evening could produce hail.  Mainly over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky.  Small tornado risk.

Showers and thunderstorms will have ended by Tuesday evening.  That will leave us with some clouds and cooler temperatures.

A weak system will pass through the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  This system could produce some scattered light showers.  It might be cold enough at the end of the precipitation for a rain/snow mix.  No accumulation.

Confidence is not all that great on coverage.  High resolution models show quite a few showers.  There could even be a thunderstorm over Kentucky.  If a storm were to form then small hail would be possible.

The NAM guidance is fairly bullish on at least a chance for scattered precipitation.

Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM guidance for 7 a.m. on Wednesday

The NAM paints a few spotty showers.  I am going to keep rain chances low (for now, at least)

Here is the future-cast radar for 10 a.m. Wednesday

Here is the future-cast radar for 2 p.m. on Wednesday (notice the snow to the north)

Here is another view from the high resolution NAM.  This is for 2 pm.  Maybe some thunder over Kentucky?

Bottom line is that we have a chance for mostly rain showers on Wednesday and Wednesday evening.  The best chance will be across southern Illinois into the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  There will be at least a chance across most of the region.

Temperatures might be cold enough on Wednesday evening for a rain/snow mix.  No accumulation.

Much colder air arrives on Wednesday night.  Hopefully the moisture will dry quickly from roadways.  Temperatures will fall into the 20’s by Thursday morning.  It will actually feel like February.  Gasp!

Another chance for showers by Sunday and Monday.

 

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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Rain chances end on Tuesday evening.
Scattered showers on Wednesday and Wednesday evening.  Totals from a trace to perhaps as much as 0.25″.  Low risk for thunderstorms, but if one forms then locally higher totals would occur.  Keep that in mind.

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Wednesday low temperature forecast

Wednesday afternoon high temperature forecast

Low confidence on exact numbers for Wednesday afternoon.  Clouds will contribute to temperatures not rising in some areas (not rising as much as they could, I should  say)

Thursday low temperature forecast

Thursday high temperature forecast

whatamiconcered

No major concerns.

 

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday night:  Evening storms could produce hail and gusty winds.  Small tornado risk.
Wednesday through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Lightning is possible on Wednesday.  Pea size hail, as well (mostly for Kentucky)
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No major changes.

12345rWe have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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