Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 6, 2019: Non-subscriber update. Subscribers, see the update below this one. Rain and storms.

 

 

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February 6, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast
:  Showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain.  A few storms could be strong.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  64° to 68°      SE MO  52° to 64°      South IL  52° north to 66°  south    West KY  64° to 68°     NW TN  66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest 8 to 16 mph becoming 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  100%      MO  100%       IL   100%      KY  100%       TN  100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous / widespread
Is flash flooding anticipated?   Low risk of flash flooding.  Some general flooding is possible this afternoon.
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Possible.  High wind is the main concern.  A low-end tornado risk.  Overall confidence in severe weather is fairly low.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated? Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Moderate rain.  Lightning.  Monitor severe weather concerns.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:54 AM

 

Wednesday night Forecast:  Rising temperatures overnight as a warm front moves northward.  Showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain.  A strong thunderstorm is possible.  Mild.  Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  60° to 64°      SE MO  50° to 60°      South IL  52° to 60°      West KY  60° to 65°        NW TN  62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   90%      MO   90%      IL   90%      KY  90%       TN   90%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Possible.
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  Strong thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.  High wind is the main concern.  Isolated tornado risk.  Overall confidence in severe weather is fairly low.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Heavy rain.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Monitor severe weather concerns.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset:   5:25 PM
Moonrise:   8:05 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   7:11 PM

 

February 7, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast
:  Showers and thunderstorms.  Heavy rain is possible.  Mild.  Monitor the risk of a few strong thunderstorms.  Windy.  Turning colder as the front moves east.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT   MO Bootheel  64° to 68°      SE MO  62° to 66°      South IL  62° to 66°     West KY  64° to 68°     NW TN  66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  90%      MO  90%       IL   90%      KY  90%       TN  90%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?   Yes.
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? Yes.  There is a risk of severe weather.  The main concern will be during the AM hours.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Heavy rain.  Flooding or flash flooding.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Monitor the threat of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:53 AM

 

Thursday night Forecast:  Rain ending west to east.  Sharply colder.  A small chance of flurries as the colder air arrives.  Watch for black ice in areas where moisture remains as the cold air arrives.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium   (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  23° to 26°      SE MO  16° to 22°      South IL  18° to 24°     West KY  22° to 24°       NW TN  23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed:  Becoming west and northwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5 to 15
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   20%      MO   20%      IL   30%      KY  40%       TN   40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Ending west to east.
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Yes.
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   Unlikely
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Possible
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Unlikely.  Watch for black ice in areas where moisture remains as the cold air arrives.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Perhaps early.  Most likely the lightning concerns will be over with.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Watch for black ice in areas where moisture remains as the cold air arrives.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset:   5:26 PM
Moonrise:   8:35 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   8:07 PM

 

 

February 8, 2019
Friday’s Forecast
:  Mostly sunny and colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  32° to 35°      SE MO  28° to 34°      South IL  26° to 34°     West KY  32° to 34°     NW TN  34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 25
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   3  Moderate
Sunrise:   6:52 AM

 

Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear and cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  20° to 24°      SE MO  14° to 18°      South IL  12° to 16°     West KY  16° to 22°       NW TN  18° to 22°
Wind direction and speed:  North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10 to 15
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:   5:27 PM
Moonrise:   9:03 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   9:03 PM

 

February 9, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  40° to 44°      SE MO  35° to 40°      South IL  35° to 40°     West KY  36° to 42°     NW TN  38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:   3 Moderate
Sunrise:   6:51 AM

 

Saturday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A slight chance of light snow or a wintry mix late.  Best chance would be across southeast Missouri after midnight.  Whether it spreads further east is still questionable.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium   (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  30° to 35°      SE MO  25° to 30°      South IL  24° to 28°     West KY  28° to 32°       NW TN  30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   30%      MO   30%      IL   10%      KY  10%       TN   10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late (SE MO)
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   Possible after midnight over SE MO
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Yes
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Monitor updates concerning a chance of a wintry mix.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:   5:28 PM
Moonrise:   9:32 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   10:00 PM

 

 

February 10, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy with a chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow changing to rain.  It may remain all rain over the southern half of the region.  Monitor the forecast for more specific details.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  43° to 46°      SE MO  38° to 42°      South IL  38° to 44°     West KY 43° to 46°     NW TN  43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  60%      MO  60%       IL   60%      KY  60%       TN  60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Becoming numerous.
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Possible
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Yes
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Icy roads are possible early in the day.  Wet roadways during the afternoon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:50 AM

 

Sunday night Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain showers.  Rain may mix with or change to snow or a wintry mix.  It may remain all rain over the southern half of the region.  Monitor the forecast for more specific details.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  34° to 36°      SE MO  30° to 35°      South IL  32° to 34°     West KY  34° to 38°       NW TN  34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:  Variable wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   60%      MO  60%      IL   50%      KY  60%       TN   70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Yes
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor for the risk of icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   6:50 PM
Moonrise:   10:00 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   10:58 PM

 

There is lower than normal confidence in the forecast from Monday into Wednesday.

Some guidance indicates the potential of a winter storm.  Confidence in that happening is very low. 

Monitor updates.

 

February 11, 2019
Monday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A wintry mix or snow changing to rain.  It may remain all rain over the southern half of the region.  Monitor the forecast for more specific details.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow  (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  45° to 50°      SE MO  42° to 44°      South IL  40° to 45°     West KY  43° to 46°     NW TN  45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  80%      MO  60%       IL   60%      KY  70%       TN  80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?   Monitor
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Early in the day
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.  Monitor the risk of flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:49 AM

 

Monday night Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  36° to 40°      SE MO  34° to 36°      South IL  34° to 36°     West KY  35° to 40°       NW TN  36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:  East and northeast at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   50%      MO   50%      IL   50%      KY  50%       TN   50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Monitor
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Patchy fog.  Monitor the risk of flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   5:30 PM
Moonrise:   10:30 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   11:58 PM

 

February 12, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy with rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 54°      SE MO  46° to 50°      South IL  45° to 50°     West KY  48° to 52°     NW TN  50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  40%      MO  40%       IL   40%      KY  40%       TN  40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   Monitor
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Monitor
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.  Monitor the risk of flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:48 AM

 

Tuesday night Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain showers.  Rain may change to snow.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (20% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  35° to 40°      SE MO  25° to 30°      South IL  25° to 30°     West KY  32° to 36°        NW TN  40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed:  West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   40%      MO   40%      IL   40%      KY  40%       TN   40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Monitor
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Monitor
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor the risk of flooding.  Monitor the risk of snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   5:32 PM
Moonrise:   11:03 AM
The phase of the moon:   First Quarter
Moonset:   12:01 AM

 

February 13, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast
:   Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow  (10% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 54°      SE MO  46° to 48°      South IL  44° to 48°     West KY  44° to 48°     NW TN  46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:  West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel 0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   3  Moderate
Sunrise:   6:47 AM

 

Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (10% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  33° to 36°      SE MO  30° to 34°      South IL  28° to 34°     West KY  34° to 36°        NW TN  38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:33 PM
Moonrise:   11:41 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:   1:01 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

The wind speed and direction forecast.

 

 

.

Today through Thursday:  Winter weather is not anticipated.

Thursday night through Sunday:  A small chance of rain ending as light snow Thursday evening/night.  No accumulation.

Precipitation returns late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  It may begin as a wintry mix before changing to all rain as temperatures rise.

 

Beau’s exclusive eight-day winter weather outlook!

The highest number possible on days 5, 6, 7, and 8 will be twenty-percent.

 

Daily outlook:

 

 

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

Locally heavy rain is possible Wednesday into Thursday evening.

This is the 48-hour rainfall forecast map.

 

 

This is the seven-day image.  This includes two events.

WPC/NOAA made a shift southward and lowered totals from previous outlooks.  Still, this is a lot of rain.

This map is more in line with my going forward numbers.

 

 

 

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?

 

Click here for your interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday into Thursday morning:  Lightning likely.  I am monitoring the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.  Confidence in severe weather occurring is low.

Thursday afternoon night into Monday:  No severe weather concerns.

 

Here is the SPC outlook for today and Thursday.

This is mostly for late this afternoon into the overnight hours.

Light green represents non-severe storms.

Dark green represents a marginal (level one severe risk out of five) risk.

Yellow represents a slight risk (level two severe risk out of five) risk

 

 

And Thursday

 

We will need to monitor Thursday morning.  I am not sure if they upgrade us to a level two risk or not.  Some severe storms are possible Thursday morning.

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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  1.   Widespread rain event is underway.
  2.   Concerns about flash flooding and river flooding are increasing.
  3.   I am monitoring the risk of severe weather later today into tomorrow morning.
  4.   Another rain event arrives late Saturday night into Tuesday night.  A prolonged period of unsettled weather ahead of us.
  5.   Precipitation may begin as a wintry mix late Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Precipitation should then turn to all rain as temperatures rise.

 

Changes over the last 24 hours.

I adjusted temperatures today to account for the placement of a stationary front.

I switched out the NOAA rain totals forecast.  They are more in line with my going forecast now.   They had rain totals a bit too high.

I adjusted weekend temperatures down by several degrees.

Overall, the core of the going forecast remains the same.  Heavy rain is a concern over the next 36 hours.

 

Confidence in the forecast

Overall confidence in today’s forecast through Monday is medium to high.

 

Action?

Monitor updated watches and warnings.   Avoid flooded roadways.  Some flood or flash flood warnings are possible.  This is especially true where thunderstorms train over the same area.  This can enhance rain totals.

A few severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.  The main concern will be Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

The heaviest rain will occur Wednesday night and Thursday.

 

Forecast Analysis and Numerical Model Guidance

The main concern continues to be our heavy rain event.

Showers and thunderstorms occurred overnight.  Some areas picked up more than an inch of rain.  Many of you were awoken by lightning and thunder.

This rain event is just beginning and will continue into Thursday.  Rain will taper west to east late Thursday morning into the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will then crash behind the cold front.

Here is the temperature animation that covers Thursday into Thursday night/Friday morning.

Notice the sharp arctic front that pushes through the area.  Rapidly falling temperatures could freeze any remaining moisture on parking lots and elsewhere.  We call that black ice.

 

 

Check out this graphic.

How many degrees colder will it be at 6 am Friday vs 6 am Thursday?  Now that is a cold front!

(this is not a temperature forecast.  This is how many degrees colder will it be behind the cold front vs ahead of it)

 

 

Friday morning lows

 

Saturday morning lows

 

Let me show you some future-cast radar images from four models.

NAM model

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.  Red/purple is a wintry mix and freezing rain well to our north and northwest.

 

 

GFS model

Event one

Green is rain.  Yellow is heavier rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink is a wintry mix.

 

 

Event two

Green is rain.  Yellow is heavier rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink is a wintry mix.

 

 

Hrrr short-range model

Time-stamp upper left hand corner.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms anticipated.

 

 

All of this rain is going to cause significant rises on area streams and rivers.

 

Additional thunderstorms are possible, as well.  Thunderstorms will enhance rain totals.  Thunderstorms will increase the risk of flooding.

General flooding can be expected as ditches, streams, and rivers rise.

Avoid flooded roadways.

The heaviest rain will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.  We also have another rain event that will develop Sunday and Monday.  That could begin as a wintry mix before changing to all rain.

 

Flash flood outlook:

A flood watch has been issued for all the area today into Thursday morning.

Click to enlarge.  Green is the watch zone.

 

 

The WPC has outlined our region in a slight risk of flash flooding.  They have a scale similar to the Storm Prediction Center.

Basically, this means that some flooding will be possible over the next 48 hours.

Rivers, of course, will flood over a longer period of time.  Sharp rises on area rivers are likely.

Today’s flash flood outlook

 

 

Tomorrow’s outlook (mainly morning hours)

 

 

We also have a risk of a few severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.  There will be plenty of clouds and ongoing rain.  There remain questions about just how unstable the atmosphere will become.

Confidence in severe weather developing remains fairly low.  There will be some spin in the atmosphere.  The main concern will be damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

Monitor watches and warnings.

Of course, I will be updating the blog, Facebook, and I will send out app messages.

Make sure you have WeatherOne turned on.  That is the most important app/text message.  That is the one for tornadoes.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com account.  Click the personal notification settings tab.  Turn on WeatherOne.  It will be green if it is on.  It will be red if it is off.

 

 

See our local city-view radars for live data.  Click here for your interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

A lot of moisture will be riding along this front.  Copious amounts, as a matter of fact.

Let me show you PWAT values.  These are two to three standard deviations higher than normal.  Above normal PWAT values.

 

 

PWAT values animation

Those purple colors represent very high moisture plumes.

 

 

Models vary on rain totals over the next 36 hours.

Generally I have been forecasting a widespread one to three inch rain event with stripes of greater than three inches possible.

 

NAM 3K high resolution model

NAM model

GFS model

Canadian model

 

Another rain event arrives Sunday into Tuesday.  It may begin as a wintry mix and then turn to all rain.  That is the current forecast.

Active February underway.

 

 

Satellite

Today’s image is the visible satellite.  You can see thick clouds over our region.

 

 

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here is the latest WPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own in-house long-range forecast graphics further down in this blog update **

Days 6 through 10

The blue colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

Precipitation outlook

 

Days 8 through 14

Precipitation

 

 

The February update has been posted.  Temperature forecast from the long-range team.

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SPRING OUTLOOK

Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

Temperature and precipitation outlooks

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Long Range Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Let’s look at the temperature anomaly forecast map from the long-range GFS model guidance.

This graphic shows you whether temperatures are forecast to average above or below normal.

Red shades indicate above normal temperatures.  Orange and red indicate much above normal temperatures.

Blue shades represent below normal temperatures.  Purple to pinkish represents much below normal temperatures.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the map animation.

Click the image to enlarge it.

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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Winter Outlook!

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

December temperature and precipitation outlook

January temperature outlook

February temperature outlook 

Winter snow outlook

 

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 680

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the teaching professor in meteorology and the associate head of the undergraduate program in meteorology at The Penn State University. He is also the host, feature writer, and producer of Weather World, Penn State Meteorology Department’s weekday weather magazine show. He also produces a segment on Wednesday’s called WeatherWhys (WxYz).  In addition, he was an on-air storm analyst at The Weather Channel from 2002 to 2005 (just after Dr. John Scala was there) and was the chief meteorologist at the historic Franklin Institute Science Museum in Philadelphia from 1998 to 2002. He has also co-authored two books: “The Philadelphia Area Weather Book” and “A World of Weather: Fundamentals of Meteorology.”  Dr. Jon Nese, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Winter Storm in the South
  • The Franklin Institute Weather Co-Op Observing Center
  • Groundhog Day upcoming on Saturday
  • NWS employees struggling during the government shutdown
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • and more.

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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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