Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
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Looking for some tasty holiday treats? Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need. Located in Benton, Kentucky. They even deliver!
**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL **** $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box! 18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box! Valentine’s Day enclosure card! Free delivery in Marshall County! Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield! Payment is required at time of order. To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call. Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks. 270-205-2552 tracyd@dcelectricinc.com
I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years. I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious. Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order. Birthdays, holidays, or just because! Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here
The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology. Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage. Visit them on their website and on Facebook. You can also find them on Twitter. They are located in Almo, Kentucky. Phone 270-718-0245
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next). The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The APP allows instant delivery. You can keep your test messages on and use the APP. You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.
We are working on the Android APP. Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.
The APP is for subscribers.
The direct download can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
9 AM UPDATE
MONDAY
Thunderstorms possible over the next 24 hours
Monday, February 6, 2017: Severe Weather Update. This update was issued at 8:45 AM and will expire at 1 PM. A new update will be issued at 1 PM.
Concerns:
1. Medium confidence. Strong storms are possible on Monday night and Tuesday morning. The main concern will be hail. A secondary concern will be a few storms producing damaging winds. A non-zero tornado risk.
2. High confidence. Gradient winds, in response to a deep area of low pressure, will develop Monday night into Tuesday. Winds could top 40 mph tonight (these would be non-thunderstorm winds).
3. Low confidence. Thunderstorms on Tuesday could also be strong. Some storms could produce hail and damaging winds. A non-zero tornado risk.
A complicated weather forecast for the next 36 to 48 hours.
Today:
Mild air will continue to pour into the region from the south. Temperatures this morning are already WELL above normal. Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 45 degrees. We are already above that.
Highs today will top out in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. A few spotty showers and thunderstorms will be possible. The storms, before sunset this evening, should remain below severe levels. Many areas may remain dry.
Tonight: The low-level jet will increase tonight. Dew points will be on the rise. Lift will develop. CAPE (energy for storms) will develop above an inversion. We call this elevated CAPE. Elevated CAPE typically means a hail threat.
Some of the storms tonight could produce hail. The risk for damaging winds and tornadoes is low tonight, but not zero. Since the CAPE is elevated, that should reduce the tornado risk tonight. It would also mitigate the damaging wind threat.
Keep in mind, gradient winds will be strong tonight. You can expect gusts above 40 mph. Gradient winds are produced when an area of low pressure and/or high pressure produces rapidly falling or rising barometric pressure readings. The tighter the gradient, the stronger the winds.
Tuesday:
A cold front will push into our region on Tuesday. The atmosphere will become more unstable. CAPE will be surface based on Tuesday. If that does occur then all modes of severe weather would be possible. Hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado risk.
Confidence is low concerning Tuesday’s forecast. Not all of the ingredients are lining up perfectly for severe thunderstorms. With that said, enough ingredients are coming together, that we should pay attention.
Severe weather is not uncommon, during the Month of February, in our local area.
Monitor updates.
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February 5, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds overnight. A few showers are possible late tonight and Monday morning. Spotty coverage.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated after 3 am
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 40 IL ~ 32 to 40 KY ~ 34 to 42 TN ~ 36 to 44
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 12:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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February 6, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Spotty showers likely. Perhaps more coverage during the late afternoon and evening hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Maybe lightning. Wet roadways. Gusty winds. Better chance for lightning on Monday night into Tuesday evening.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely during the day, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty early and then increasing coverage afternoon/evening.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph before 9 am with gusts to 16 mph. Then, 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:25 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 2
Moonrise will be at 1:19 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Windy. An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could produce hail. Warm with well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Gradient wind gusts above 40 mph. Lightning. Some storms could produce hail and gusty winds.
Is severe weather expected? Yes, hail is possible. Strong and gusty gradient winds, as well.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~55 to 60 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: South and southwest at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 1:19 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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February 7, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Intervals of sun possible. Near record high temperatures. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Windy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Gusty winds. A few storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Severe storms can not be ruled out. Isolated tornado risk.
Is severe weather expected? I can’t rule out severe weather. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars. Have a plan B in mind.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 70 IL ~ 60 to 70 KY ~ 60 to 70 TN ~ 60 to 70
Winds: South and southwest winds 15 to 30 mph and gusty. Winds may become westerly late in the day
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:27 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 2
Moonrise will be at 2:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Some storms could be intense.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Gusty winds. Some storms could produce hail and high winds. I can’t rule out severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening. There is a non-zero tornado risk, as well.
Is severe weather expected? Yes, it is a possibility.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly early)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in mind
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~32 to 36 IL ~ 32 to 36 KY ~ 32 to 36 TN ~ 32 to 38
Winds: West and northwest becoming northwest and north at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
A weak system could bring spotty showers or snow showers to the region on Thursday. Low confidence. Models are not in agreement on this subject.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Three concerns
- High winds possible on Monday night. Wind gusts above 40 mph are likely. Some gusts to 50 mph possible. These will be gradient winds. Gradient winds are because of tight pressure gradients. Rapidly rising or falling pressure readings.
- Thunderstorms on Monday night and Tuesday morning could produce large hail. Can’t rule out high winds from some storms, as well.
- On Tuesday there should be a second round of storms. We will need to monitor the severe weather risk, as well.
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night into Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday night: Some storms could produce hail. High winds because of a tight pressure gradient.
Tuesday: A few thunderstorms could become severe. Large hail is the main concern and then strong winds. There is a non-zero tornado risk on Tuesday. That means that I can’t rule out isolated reports of tornadoes. It only takes one tornado to cause problems.
Analysis
Sunday night
Confidence: High
Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night and Monday morning. Some spotty light showers will also be possible. Many areas may remain dry, but radar should have at least some patchy precipitation.
Temperatures will be above normal on Sunday night. Mt Vernon, Illinois area will dip into the middle and upper 30’s, Paducah will likely remain in the 38 to 44 degree range, and northwest Tennessee should remain in the 40’s. Normal low temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 25 degrees.
Monday
Confidence: High
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
Clouds will continue to increase and thicken on Monday. There will be at least a chance of spotty showers, as well. I can’t completely rule out a thunderstorm. Thunderstorm chances will be higher on Monday night and Tuesday.
Temperatures will be mild with highs in the middle 50’s to lower 60’s. Not bad for February! Par for the course. The non-winter continues.
Check out this map. This is the temperature anomaly map for Monday
Temperatures will be anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees above normal.
You know who would like this weather? Olaf!
Rainfall totals on Monday, for those who pick up a shower, will be less than 0.15″.
Here is the 7 a.m. Monday future-cast radar
You can see a few spotty showers dotting the map. Not much.
Here is the 12 p.m. future-cast radar. Again, not much, but a few showers.
Here is the 4 pm future-cast radar. Monday afternoon.
Check out the 5 p.m. temperatures. Monday evening. Well above normal.
Monday night
Confidence: High
Warmer air will continue to filter into the region on Monday night. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable. Showers and thunderstorms will dot radar.
There will be elevated CAPE on Monday night. CAPE is a measure of instability. Higher CAPE numbers typically mean better chances for strong thunderstorms. This is especially true as wind fields aloft increase. CAPE – what is it? Link
Hail might be the end result.
Some of the thunderstorms, on Monday night, could produce quarter size hail or larger and gusty winds. Medium confidence that there will be some hail late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
In addition to the threat for thunderstorms, there will also be strong gradient winds.
What are gradient winds? Gradient winds are caused by tight pressure changes. The tighter the pressure change the strong the winds. Winds will likely gust above 40 mph on Monday night and could top 50 mph in spots.
Here is the pressure map for Monday night. The lines are isobars (equal lines of pressure). Tight!
Click the maps to enlarge them
Here is the NAM wind gust map for Monday night
Lapse rates will be fairly high on Monday night. What are lapse rates? Lapse rates have to do with the change of temperature with height. A rapidly cooling temperatures aloft is an indicator of unstable air. More information here – click
Here is the lapse rate map for Monday night at 12 a.m. (Tuesday morning)
Tuesday 6 a.m.
Monitor updates concerning the potential for some strong storms on Monday night.
Tuesday
Confidence: Low to medium
The forecast becomes increasingly complicated on Tuesday. A cold front will enter our region from the west. A deep area of low pressure will pass to our north.
We will be on the warm side of this system. High temperatures will peak in the upper 60’s on Tuesday ahead of the front. Some areas could reach 70 degrees.
Obviously, 70 degrees in February is never a good thing. Thunderstorms could form along the front on Tuesday. There remain significant questions on both coverage and intensity.
There will be some ingredients for severe thunderstorms, but whether it all comes together is still a question. Monitor updates. Winter months can and often do produce severe weather in our region. It is not unusual.
The primary concern would be hail and gusty winds. There will be an isolated tornado risk. As always, it only takes one tornado to cause problems.
Let me show you a few maps
This is the 3 AM Tuesday CAPE map and barometer
This is quite a bit of CAPE for overnight hours. Look how tight the pressure lines are (isobars).
IGNORE the 11:13 AM time stamp on these graphics (I meant to take that off)
6 AM on Tuesday. CAPE numbers
12 PM Tuesday CAPE
3 PM CAPE numbers for Tuesday
The models briefly stall the front over western Kentucky into the Bootheel on Tuesday evening. This will need to be monitored.
9 PM Tuesday night
Obviously, there is enough CAPE for some concerns.
Dew points will peak in the upper 50’s to perhaps around 60 degrees.
Here is the 12 pm dew point map for Tuesday
Here is the dew point map for 9 pm on Tuesday. Notice how the front starts to stretch more southwest to northeast
I typically look for 58 degrees and above (dew points) when it comes to severe weather (during the winter months).
There will also be quite a bit of wind shear.
The bottom line is that some of the storms on Tuesday could produce large hail, strong winds, and there is at least a non-zero tornado risk.
Monitor updates.
I will be using the texting service to alert people of severe weather and tornadoes. Make sure you have signed up for the texts. Make sure text option one is on. That is the most important text option.
Sign up at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Find me on Twitter
How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Here is the NAM forecast for rain totals. Thunderstorms could produce much higher totals.
This is the GFS rainfall forecast map
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Monday morning low temperatures
Monday afternoon high temperatures
Tuesday morning low temperatures
Tuesday Afternoon high temperatures
No major changes.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
