Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 4th and 5th: Warmer on Sunday. Rain early in the week.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.

You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


BANNER OPTION 2

Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


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Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

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The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology.  Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage.  Visit them on their website and on Facebook.  You can also find them on Twitter.  They are located in Almo, Kentucky.  Phone 270-718-0245

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users.  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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February 4, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Gusty winds, at times.  An isolated light shower/sleet/snow shower possible.  Data continues to trend drier and drier for Saturday night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Perhaps some wet roadways.   Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 32 to 36    IL ~ 30 to 36    KY ~ 32 to 36    TN ~ 32 to 38
Winds
:  South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  26 to 36 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  Unlikely.  Small chance for sleet pellets or flurries.
Moonrise will be at 11:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:36 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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February 5, 2017
Sunday 
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Some early morning clouds (before 8 am) and then quite a bit of sun with passing clouds.  Warmer.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 52 to 56    IL ~ 50 to 56    KY ~ 52 to 565    TN ~ 52 to 56  
Winds
:  Southwest winds and west winds at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:52  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:24 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 3 
Moonrise 
will be at 12:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbous


Sunday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds overnight.  A 20% for a shower after 2 am
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Perhaps some wet roadways.   
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps isolated after 2 am
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 32 to 40    IL ~ 32 to 40    KY ~ 34 to 42    TN ~ 36 to 44
Winds
:  South winds at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 12:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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February 6, 2017
Monday 
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Better chances during the afternoon vs morning.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Gusty winds.
Is severe weather expected
?  Unlikely during the day, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated early and then increasing coverage afternoon/evening.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  Monitor updates and radars.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58    KY ~ 55 to 60    TN ~ 55 to 60  
Winds
:  South winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:51  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:25 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 1:19 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous


Monday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Windy.  A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Warm with well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.  High winds.  Lightning.  Perhaps some severe thunderstorms (monitor updates) 
Is severe weather expected
?  Possibly.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  Have a plan B
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~55 to 60    IL ~ 54 to 58    KY ~ 55 to 60    TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds
:  South and southwest at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 1:19 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.

More information on the UV index.  Click here

Monitor snow chances for Wednesday night into Thursday night.  Some adjustments possible.

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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.



 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

 

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

The winter weather outlook was updated on Tuesday, January 31st

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted into text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.

Saturday night into Sunday night
Confidence:  High

Clouds will be the rule on Saturday night with a small chance for a shower.  Cool temperatures, but not nearly as cold as recent nights.  Lows mostly in the 30’s.

Temperatures will be on the rise through early next week.  You can expect 50’s on Sunday.

There will be some clouds on Sunday.  A mix of sun and clouds.  Morning clouds should depart and then perhaps an increase in high clouds on Sunday afternoon and evening.

 

Sunday night into Tuesday
Confidence:  High

The main weather story will be an area of low pressure that will push out of the central United States and pass through northern Missouri into Illinois.

This low will help pull warm/moist air northward into our region on Monday and Tuesday.

You can see the area of low pressure on this map (the red L near Chicago).  This map is for 6 am on Tuesday.  Widespread showers and storms in our region.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop on Monday and spread southwest to northeast into the region.  Better rain chances on Monday afternoon vs Monday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday night and Tuesday.  Gusty winds, as well.  Winds may gust above 40 mph as the area of low pressure pulls through the region on Monday night into Tuesday evening.  Tight pressure gradient.

A few thunderstorms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and hail.  We will need to monitor the severe weather risk on both Monday night and Tuesday.  Low confidence on severe weather occurring.  Not everything is coming together (at least at this point) for widespread severe weather.  That could change.  Monitor.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for some strong storms on Monday night into Tuesday evening.  It is a bit early to know how high the severe weather risk will be.   Thus, monitor updates as we move forward.

Here is the Monday outlook.  Dark green represents a marginal risk for severe weather on Monday night

A marginal risk means that a few storms could become severe.

I will send out an AWARE email if the severe weather threat looks viable.  I will also be using the texting service to send out information.  If you have not signed up then please do so.  You can sign up at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Check out the Tuesday afternoon and afternoon temperatures.

This is for 6 am on Tuesday morning.  Wow

Here is the temperature anomaly map for Tuesday morning.  How many degrees above normal?

Tuesday afternoon.  WELL above normal temperatures.

 

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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

The official NOAA rainfall total forecast is below.
Click image to enlarge
Most of this falls on Monday into Wednesday

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Sunday morning low temperatures

Sunday afternoon high temperatures

Monday morning low temperatures


Monday Afternoon high temperatures

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No changes

 

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Monitoring Monday night into Tuesday evening for a few strong thunderstorms.  Severe weather is a possibility.  Monitor updates.

 

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Saturday night into Sunday night:  No severe weather

Monday through Tuesday:  Monitor updates.  Some storms are possible Monday into Tuesday.  A few storms could produce lightning, heavy rain, and hail.  The tornado risk is not zero.  Monitor updates on Monday night into Tuesday evening.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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