Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 4, 2019: Non-subscriber update. Subscribers, see the update below this one. Warm today. Rain chances on the increase.

 

 

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00.  Your $5 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.

The $5 will allow you to register up to seven phones!

For $5 a month you can receive the following.  You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed messages from me to you.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.

 

  • Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
  • Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
  • AWARE emails.  These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
  • Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
  • Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
  • Long-range weather videos
  • Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
    Monthly outlooks.
  • Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

 

Would you like to subscribe?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

 

 

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

 

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

.

 

 

February 4, 2019
Monday’s Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Warm.  Windy.  Spring-like temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  65° to 70°      SE MO  65° to 70°      South IL  66° to 68°     West KY  65° to 70°     NW TN  66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  40%      MO  40%      IL    40%      KY  50%       TN  50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  N0
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.  Gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.  Some rain showers are possible.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:56 AM

 

Monday night Forecast:   Cloudy with some rain showers (mainly early).  Rain ending west to east.   Colder across the northern half of the region.  Mild south.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High   (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  46° to 50°      SE MO  32° north to 44° south      South IL  30° north to 40° south   West KY  38° to 44°       NW TN  48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming northwest and north at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   20%      MO   20%      IL   30%      KY  40%       TN   40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   Ending west to east
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible (mainly early)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.  Rain showers will be ending west to east.
Sunset:   5:23 PM
Moonrise:   6:56 AM
The phase of the moon:   New
Moonset:   5:19 PM

 

February 5, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast
: Widespread clouds. A  chance of widely scattered showers.  Isolated thunderstorms.  The region will be split between warm and cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  56° to 60°      SE MO  48° to 54°      South IL  46° to 54°     West KY  53° to 56°     NW TN  58° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:  East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  30%      MO  30%       IL   30%      KY  30%       TN  30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Slight chance
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   A few wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index:   2  Low
Sunrise:   6:55 AM

 

Tuesday night Forecast:  Cloudy with widespread rain showers developing.  A thunderstorm possible.  Mild for February.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  53° to 56°      SE MO  44° north to 50° south     South IL  42° to 52°  (coolest north vs south)   West KY  50° to 54°       NW TN  58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   80%      MO   80%      IL   80%      KY 80%       TN  80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   Widespread
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   5:24 PM
Moonrise:   7:32 AM
The phase of the moon:   New
Moonset:   6:14 PM

 

February 6, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy with rain likely.  A thunderstorm possible.  Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  66° to 68°      SE MO  58° to 64°      South IL  58° north to 66°  south    West KY  64° to 68°     NW TN  66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest increasing to 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  80%      MO  80%       IL   80%      KY  80%       TN  80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous / widespread
Is flash flooding anticipated?   Unlikely, but monitor updates
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Most likely not during the day.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.  Perhaps some lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:54 AM

 

Wednesday night Forecast:  Rain likely.  Thunderstorms are possible.  Locally heavy rain.  A strong thunderstorm is possible. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  60° to 62°      SE MO  52° to 60°      South IL  52° to 60°      West KY  56° to 63°        NW TN  60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   90%      MO   90%      IL   90%      KY  90%       TN   90%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Possible.
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  Strong thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Heavy rain.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Monitor severe weather concerns.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset:   5:25 PM
Moonrise:   8:05 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   7:11 PM

 

February 7, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast
:  Showers and possible thunderstorms.  Heavy rain is possible.  Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (59% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  58° to 62°      SE MO  58° to 62°      South IL  55° to 60°     West KY  56° to 62°     NW TN  60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  90%      MO  90%       IL   90%      KY  90%       TN  90%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?   Yes.
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Heavy rain.  Flooding or flash flooding.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Monitor the threat of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:53 AM

 

Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with rain.  Rain may change to sleet and snow.  Colder. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  23° to 26°      SE MO  20° to 25°      South IL  20° to 25°     West KY  22° to 24°       NW TN  23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed:  Becoming northwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 25
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   40%      MO   40%      IL   60%      KY  60%       TN   60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous early.  Ending west to east.
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Yes.
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Possible
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Perhaps early.  Most likely the lightning concerns will be over with.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor snow chances.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset:   5:26 PM
Moonrise:   8:35 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   8:07 PM

 

 

February 8, 2019
Friday’s Forecast
:  Mostly sunny and colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  36° to 38°      SE MO  32° to 34°      South IL  30° to 35°     West KY  32° to 36°     NW TN  36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   3  Moderate
Sunrise:   6:52 AM

 

Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear and cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  24° to 26°      SE MO  20° to 25°      South IL  18° to 24°     West KY  22° to 24°       NW TN  24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed:  North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 14 to 24
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:   5:27 PM
Moonrise:   9:03 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   9:03 PM

 

February 9, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast
:  Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  42° to 44°      SE MO  38° to 44°      South IL  38° to 44°     West KY  38° to 44°     NW TN  42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:  Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:   3 Moderate
Sunrise:   6:51 AM

 

Saturday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds with rain or snow showers possible late.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  32° to 34°      SE MO  30° to 35°      South IL  28° to 34°     West KY  32° to 34°       NW TN  32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   30%      MO   30%      IL   30%      KY  30%       TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Monitor
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset:   5:28 PM
Moonrise:   9:32 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   10:00 PM

 

February 10, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy with snow or rain showers possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow  (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  45° to 50°      SE MO  44° to 48°      South IL  44° to 48°     West KY  46° to 50°     NW TN  48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  30%      MO  30%       IL   30%      KY  30%       TN  30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Monitor
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:50 AM

 

Sunday night Forecast:  Cloudy with scattered showers again possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  44° to 48°      SE MO  40° to 45°      South IL  40° to 44°     West KY  43° to 44°       NW TN  43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   30%      MO   30%      IL   30%      KY  30%       TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Not at this time.  Monitor updates.
Sunset:   6:50 PM
Moonrise:   10:00 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   10:58 PM

 

February 11, 2019
Monday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy with a chance of showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow  (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  45° to 50°      SE MO  44° to 48°      South IL  44° to 48°     West KY  46° to 50°     NW TN  46° to 52°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  30%      MO  30%       IL   30%      KY  30%       TN  30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, not yet.  Monitor updates.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:40 AM

 

Monday night Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  36° to 40°      SE MO  34° to 38°      South IL  34° to 38°     West KY  36° to 40°       NW TN  36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   30%      MO   30%      IL   30%      KY  30%       TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, not yet.  Monitor updates.
Sunset:   5:30 PM
Moonrise:   10:30 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   11:58 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

The wind speed and direction forecast.

 

 

.

Today through Thursday:  Winter weather is not anticipated.

Thursday night through Sunday:  Monitor updates.  Rain may end as snow Thursday night.  I am also watching Saturday into Sunday morning.  Some of the charts show another chance of snow.  Low confidence.

 

Beau’s exclusive eight-day winter weather outlook!

The highest number possible on days 5, 6, 7, and 8 will be twenty-percent.

Daily outlook:

 

 

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

 

Locally heavy rain is possible Wednesday into Thursday evening.

 

 

Northwest view

 

 

Southeast view

 

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?

 

Click here for your interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today through Tuesday night:  No severe weather concerns.  Lightning will be possible Tuesday night.

Wednesday into Thursday:  Monitor updates.  Lightning is possible.  I am monitoring the risk of strong thunderstorms from Wednesday night into Thursday.  Confidence in severe weather occurring is low.

Thursday night into Monday:  No severe weather concerns.

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 .

  1.   Warm weather today.
  2.   Rain shower chances today and much of the week.
  3.   Concerns about flash flooding and river flooding are increasing.  Flash flood and/or flood watches will likely be issued for portions of the region later this week.
  4.   Monitoring the risk of a few heavy thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday.
  5.   Snow chances?

 

Changes over the last 24 hours.

I adjusted both temperatures and rain chances through the week.

I did not change the wording on the heavy rain concerns.  It remains a concern.  If anything, the concerns have grown.

I did increase the language slightly on the risk of strong thunderstorms.

I did go ahead and mention rain ending as snow Thursday night.  Low confidence that it would amount to anything.

 

Confidence in the forecast

Overall confidence in today’s forecast through Thursday is medium to high.

Confidence in the forecast decreases as we move into the weekend.

 

Action?

Monitor updates.  Flash flood or flood watches may need to be issued for portions of the region by Wednesday into Thursday evening.

 

Forecast Analysis and Numerical Model Guidance

The biggest weather story, by far, is going to be an upcoming heavy rain event.  The heaviest rain will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday evening.

We do have clouds in the area today along an incoming cold front.  A few spotty showers are likely to develop along the front.

You can see some spotty showers here on the Hrrr model guidance.

Future-cast radar.  The timestamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.  See our local city-view radars for live data.  Click here for your interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

 

 

Check out these crazy temperatures and the temperature gradient.  That gradient is going to help spark heavy rain in our region by the middle of the week.

 

 

It will turn colder tonight behind the front.  The precipitation will end before the coldest air arrives.

Notice the region is split in half.

Colder to the north and milder to the south.  There is a frontal boundary draped across the region.

 

 

Tuesday will be a bit cooler and likely rain-free.  A small chance of sprinkles.

Our rain chances increase Tuesday night and that will continue into Thursday night.

There will be enough unstable air Tuesday night into Thursday for at least lightning.  There could even be a few strong thunderstorms by late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

This is shaping up to be a heavy rain event.  Potentially, flooding rains.

Let’s look at the GFS future-cast radar animation.  Notice the GFS ends the precipitaon as snow Thursday night.  Still a bit early to know if that will happen.

Either way, this is mostly a rain event.

 

 

A lot of moisture will be riding along this front.  Copious amounts, as a matter of fact.

Let me show you PWAT values.  These are two to three standard deviations higher than normal.  Way way above normal PWAT values.

 

 

PWAT values animation

 

Let’s take a look at Four models.  The NAM, GFS, the EC, and the Canadian.

Each model has a different take on the rainfall totals and exact placement.  Most of the guidance paints the heaviest rain somewhere within a county or two of the Ohio River.

The NAM

The NAM went north with the heaviest rain band.  This is a change from previous forecast numbers.

 

 

GFS

The GFS is the wettest model.  It shows concerning amounts of rain in the river basins.

Hopefully, this is wrong.

 

EC

Canadian

 

Satellite

Today’s image is the visible satellite.  You can see thick clouds over our region.

 

 

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here is the latest WPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own in-house long-range forecast graphics further down in this blog update **

Days 6 through 10

The blue colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

Precipitation outlook

 

Days 8 through 14

Precipitation

 

 

The February update has been posted.  Temperature forecast from the long-range team.

This product is for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

SPRING OUTLOOK

Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

Temperature and precipitation outlooks

This product is for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Long Range Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Let’s look at the temperature anomaly forecast map from the long-range GFS model guidance.

This graphic shows you whether temperatures are forecast to average above or below normal.

Red shades indicate above normal temperatures.  Orange and red indicate much above normal temperatures.

Blue shades represent below normal temperatures.  Purple to pinkish represents much below normal temperatures.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the map animation.

Click the image to enlarge it.

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

.

Winter Outlook!

These products are for subscribers.

 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

December temperature and precipitation outlook

January temperature outlook

February temperature outlook 

Winter snow outlook

 

.These products are for subscribers.

 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 


 

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 680

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the teaching professor in meteorology and the associate head of the undergraduate program in meteorology at The Penn State University. He is also the host, feature writer, and producer of Weather World, Penn State Meteorology Department’s weekday weather magazine show. He also produces a segment on Wednesday’s called WeatherWhys (WxYz).  In addition, he was an on-air storm analyst at The Weather Channel from 2002 to 2005 (just after Dr. John Scala was there) and was the chief meteorologist at the historic Franklin Institute Science Museum in Philadelphia from 1998 to 2002. He has also co-authored two books: “The Philadelphia Area Weather Book” and “A World of Weather: Fundamentals of Meteorology.”  Dr. Jon Nese, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Winter Storm in the South
  • The Franklin Institute Weather Co-Op Observing Center
  • Groundhog Day upcoming on Saturday
  • NWS employees struggling during the government shutdown
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • and more.

.

.

Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *