Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 3rd and 4th: Cool weather. Rain early next week.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.

You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


BANNER OPTION 2

Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


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Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

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The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology.  Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage.  Visit them on their website and on Facebook.  You can also find them on Twitter.  They are located in Almo, Kentucky.  Phone 270-718-0245

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Charity fund raiser for Guardian Family Services.  Shane Parker, aka The Bear On The Air, Bear-B-Que Catering Co., will be selling Rib’s for $20 a slab. Preorder by calling 618-524-4357 or 618-645-6444. Pickup Saturday, February 4th at Metropolis Big John’s between 11 am and 2 pm.

Folks, we need to sell every slab, because the money that The Bear On The Air raises, will be matched! That means every $20 becomes $40!!!

All proceeds going to Guardian Family Services, a shelter for domestic violence victims & their children, service six+ southern Illinois counties.

Funds raised matched by the Shadow Angel Foundation in partnership with Beau Dodson Weather.

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users.  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

 

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

 

February 2, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Intervals of clouds.  Snow flurries possible northern counties. Chilly with below normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.  Flurries possible late tonight/early Friday morning
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 18 to 26    IL ~ 18 to 25    KY ~ 22 to 26    TN ~ 24 to 28
Winds
:  North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gustst to 15 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  12 to 20 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  Nothing significant
Moonrise will be at 10:22 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:30 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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February 3, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Morning flurry possible over southern IL and northwest KY.  A mix of sun and clouds.  Chilly with below normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 36 to 44     IL ~ 36 to 44     KY ~ 38 to 44       TN ~ 40 to 45  
Winds
:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph 
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  UFlurries possible.
Sunrise will be at 6:54  a.m. and sunset will be at —- p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 3 
Moonrise 
will be at 11:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:30 p.m.  First Quarter 


Friday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy and cold.  Below normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 18 to 25    IL ~18 to 25    KY ~ 20 to 25    TN ~ 20 to 25
Winds
:  North winds become east and southeast at 6 to 12 mph 
Wind Chill when applicable
:  15 to 20 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 11:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:30 p.m.  First Quarter

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February 4, 2017
Saturday 
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a bit of sun with passing clouds.  Cooler.  Below normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 38 to 45     IL ~ 38 to 45     KY ~ 38 to 45    TN ~ 42 to 46  
Winds
:  Southeast and south winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph during the afternoon and evening hours
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  Unlikely
Sunrise will be at 6:53  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:23 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 3 
Moonrise 
will be at 11:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:36 a.m. Waxing Gibbous


Saturday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  An isolated light shower/sleet/snow shower possible.  Data continues to trend drier and drier for Saturday night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Perhaps some wet roadways.   Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 28 to 34    IL ~ 28 to 34    KY ~ 30 to 35    TN ~ 32 to 36
Winds
:  South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  Unlikely, but let’s keep an eye on it.
Moonrise will be at 11:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:36 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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More information on the UV index.  Click here

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.



 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Chilly air
  2.  Guidance trends dry for Saturday and Sunday
  3.  Thunderstorms MON~WED
  4.  Another system around February 9th

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

The winter weather outlook was updated on Tuesday, January 31st

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted into text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.

I am looking for weather watchers.  You will need to fill out the form.

Form link https://weathertalk.com/weatherwatcher

Thursday night into Friday night
Confidence:  High

Calm weather is anticipated Thursday night into Saturday.  Temperatures will be on the chilly side.

Lows on Friday morning will range from 18 degrees to 26 degrees (warmest over northwest Tennessee)

Highs on Friday will rise into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.  A mix of sun and clouds.

Temperatures on Friday and Friday night will be below normal.  As a matter of fact, overnight lows on Friday might dip into the upper teens to middle 20’s.  Nothing extreme, but colder than recent weeks.

Temperature anomaly map for Friday

These are NOT temperatures.  This map shows you how many degrees above or below normal temperatures will be

Friday

and here is the Friday night/Saturday morning temperature anomaly map

A warming trend begins on Saturday and Sunday.  Highs on Saturday will rise into the 40’s.  Sunday, however, should deliver highs in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.  We can handle that!

Model guidance continues to trend drier and drier with the Saturday and Sunday morning storm system.  At one time this looked to be a decent rain maker in our region.  Now, it appears we might see some light showers or sprinkles/sleet pellet/flurry.  Nothing significant anticipated.

I will keep an eye on it.  Temperatures will be cold on Saturday night.  If precipitation were to develop then it could be a wintry mix.  At this time, it appears unlikely that measurable precipitation will occur.

 

Sunday through Tuesday
Confidence:  Low to medium

A complicated weather forecast as we push into the new work week.

Sunday should deliver calm conditions.  Some morning clouds likely and then sunshine.  Precipitation chances appear low for Sunday morning.  The bulk of the system should miss us to the south.   I did mention a chance for isolated showers or sleet pellets/snow flurries for Saturday night and before sunrise on Sunday.

Temperatures on Sunday will pop into the upper 40’s to perhaps lower 50’s.

The forecast becomes complicated as we move into Monday.  A series of disturbances will push through the region.  Each of them will deliver rain chances.  Thunderstorms are possible, as well.  The threat for severe weather will need to be monitored.

Check out the temperatures for Monday and Tuesday.  Spring!  We should be used to this by now.

Monday temperatures.

Tuesday temperatures

Gusty winds likely with all of this warm air.

Here is the wind gust map for 6 am on Tuesday.  Gusts above 30 mph possible.

Wind gust map for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  Strong and gusty winds.

Here is the future-cast radar for Monday at 12 pm

Here is the future-cast radar for 6 am on Tuesday.  Notice the black lines.  The black lines are isobars (equal lines of pressure).  When those lights are packed together you can expect gusty winds.


The models show some CAPE.  CAPE is energy available for thunderstorms.  There is at least a window of opportunity for some strong storms on Tuesday.

Tuesday 12 PM CAPE.  That is sufficient for strong storms, but we have to monitor other ingredients.

This receives a “monitor” status.

Dew points are marginal.  Normally 58 degrees and above is sufficient (during February) for strong storms.

The EC guidance shows two low pressure centers.  One on Monday and one on Tuesday.  GFS has shown this on and off for a few days.

This is the first area of low pressure on Monday night.

Now, with that said, it is possible the models are just not handling the depiction of the lows.

This is the second area of low pressure on Tuesday.

 


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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

The official NOAA rainfall total forecast is below.

Click image to enlarge

Most of this falls on Monday into Wednesday

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Friday morning low temperatures

The graphics are too warm.  It appears low will range from 18 to 26 across the region.  Highest readings over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.

Friday afternoon high temperatures


Saturday morning low temperatures


Saturday Afternoon high temperatures

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Updated the rain chances for Saturday night and Sunday.  I was leaning dry, but it now looks like it might be completely dry.  I did mention a chance for light showers or wintry mix.  Right now, measurable precipitation appears unlikely.

whatamiconcered

No major concerns, at this time

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thursday night through Sunday night:  No severe weather concerns.

Monday through Wednesday:  Monitor updates.  Some storms are possible Monday into Wednesday.  Timing of the system will need to be monitored.  I can’t rule out strong storms, but confidence this far out is low.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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