Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 3, 2019: Quick weekend update and a look ahead.

February 4, 2019
Monday’s Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Warm.  Windy.  Spring-like temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  63° to 66°      SE MO  63° to 66°      South IL  63° to 66°     West KY  63° to 66°     NW TN  64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  40%      MO  40%      IL    40%      KY  50%       TN  50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  N0
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.  Gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.  Some rain showers are possible.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:56 AM

 

Monday night Forecast:   Cloudy with some rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium   (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  46° to 50°      SE MO  38° to 46°      South IL  36° to 42°     West KY  45° to 50°       NW TN  48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   40%      MO   40%      IL   40%      KY  40%       TN   40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.  Rain is certainly a possibility and this could impact outdoor activities.
Sunset:   5:23 PM
Moonrise:   6:56 AM
The phase of the moon:   New
Moonset:   5:19 PM

 

February 5, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A bit cooler.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 54°      SE MO  48° to 54°      South IL  48° to 54°     West KY  50° to 54°     NW TN  50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  East and southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   Unlikely, but monitor updates.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   2  Low
Sunrise:   6:55 AM

 

Tuesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 54°      SE MO  50° to 54°      South IL  50° to 54°     West KY  50° to 54°       NW TN  50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South winds at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:24 PM
Moonrise:   7:32 AM
The phase of the moon:   New
Moonset:   6:14 PM

 

February 6, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy with rain showers possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  60° to 64°      SE MO  58° to 62°      South IL  58° to 62°     West KY  58° to 62°     NW TN  60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  50%      MO  50%       IL   50%      KY  50%       TN  50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:54 AM

 

Wednesday night Forecast:  Rain likely.  Thunderstorms are possible.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  55° to 60°      SE MO  55° to 60°      South IL  55° to 60°      West KY  55° to 60°        NW TN  55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   60%      MO   60%      IL   60%      KY  60%       TN   60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Possible.
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Heavy rain.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Monitor severe weather concerns.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset:   5:25 PM
Moonrise:   8:05 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   7:11 PM

 

February 7, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast
:  Showers and possible thunderstorms.  Heavy rain is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (59% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  58° to 62°      SE MO  58° to 62°      South IL  55° to 60°     West KY  56° to 62°     NW TN  60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  70%      MO  70%       IL   70%      KY  70%       TN  70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?   Possible
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Heavy rain.  Flooding or flash flooding.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Monitor the threat of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:53 AM

 

Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy rain or snow showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  23° to 26°      SE MO  20° to 25°      South IL  20° to 25°     West KY  22° to 24°       NW TN  23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   40%      MO   40%      IL   40%      KY  40%       TN   40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous early.  Ending west to east.
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Monitor
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Possible
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor snow chances.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset:   5:26 PM
Moonrise:   8:35 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   8:07 PM

 

 

February 8, 2019
Friday’s Forecast
:  Mostly sunny and cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  34° to 36°      SE MO  32° to 34°      South IL  30° to 34°     West KY  32° to 36°     NW TN  34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   3  Moderate
Sunrise:   6:52 AM

 

Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear and cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  23° to 26°      SE MO  20° to 25°      South IL  20° to 25°     West KY  22° to 24°       NW TN  23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:   5:27 PM
Moonrise:   9:03 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   9:03 PM

 

February 9, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast
:  Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  42° to 44°      SE MO  38° to 44°      South IL  38° to 44°     West KY  38° to 44°     NW TN  42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:   3 Moderate
Sunrise:   6:51 AM

 

Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. and chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingMedium   (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  32° to 34°      SE MO  30° to 35°      South IL  30° to 35°     West KY  32° to 34°       NW TN  34° to 36
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:   5:28 PM
Moonrise:   9:32 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   10:00 PM

 

February 10, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast
:
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  58° to 62°      SE MO  53° to 56°      South IL  53° to 56°     West KY  56° to 60°     NW TN  58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:50 AM

 

Sunday night Forecast:  Cloudy with scattered showers again possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  44° to 48°      SE MO  40° to 45°      South IL  40° to 44°     West KY  43° to 44°       NW TN  43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   30%      MO   30%      IL   30%      KY  30%       TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Not at this time.  Monitor updates.
Sunset:   6:50 PM
Moonrise:   10:00 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   10:58 PM

 

February 11, 2019
Monday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy with a chance of showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow  (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  45° to 50°      SE MO  44° to 48°      South IL  44° to 48°     West KY  46° to 50°     NW TN  46° to 52°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  30%      MO  30%       IL   30%      KY  30%       TN  30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, not yet.  Monitor updates.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:40 AM

 

Monday night Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  36° to 40°      SE MO  34° to 38°      South IL  34° to 38°     West KY  36° to 40°       NW TN  36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   30%      MO   30%      IL   30%      KY  30%       TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, not yet.  Monitor updates.
Sunset:   5:30 PM
Moonrise:   10:30 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   11:58 PM

 

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Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

Welcome to what we will call pre-spring!

Dry today with some breezy conditions.  Well above average temperatures.  The well above average temperatures will continue into at least Wednesday night and perhaps Thursday.

We have several rain chances.  The greatest rain chances will arrive on Wednesday and Thursday.

Locally heavy rain is possible.

There are strong signals for multiple chances of precipitation across our region over the coming four weeks.  One system after another.  Not the best pattern to enter spring.

 

 

Some random locations in the region.  Seven-day forecast.

I will put together a more detailed forecast tomorrow morning when the regular blog updates will be posted.

There are some questions about Thursday night into Friday.  Perhaps the precipitation ends as a wintry mix.  Too soon for certainties.

Any snow chances late in the week have a low confidence stamp on them.

 

Rain chances on Monday will be 30% to 40%
Rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday will be 60%
Rain chances on Friday will be 30%
Rain or mix chances on Saturday will be 20%

 

 

The 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day temperature and precipitation outlooks.

 

6 to 10-day outlook

 

8-14 day outlook

 

 

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

A wet and stormy pattern is developing for February.

We promised an active and cold winter.  The active part has verified.  The cold has not lasted all that long.

River flooding concerns are going to rise if this pattern continues.

 

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

 


 

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 680

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the teaching professor in meteorology and the associate head of the undergraduate program in meteorology at The Penn State University. He is also the host, feature writer, and producer of Weather World, Penn State Meteorology Department’s weekday weather magazine show. He also produces a segment on Wednesday’s called WeatherWhys (WxYz).  In addition, he was an on-air storm analyst at The Weather Channel from 2002 to 2005 (just after Dr. John Scala was there) and was the chief meteorologist at the historic Franklin Institute Science Museum in Philadelphia from 1998 to 2002. He has also co-authored two books: “The Philadelphia Area Weather Book” and “A World of Weather: Fundamentals of Meteorology.”  Dr. Jon Nese, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Winter Storm in the South
  • The Franklin Institute Weather Co-Op Observing Center
  • Groundhog Day upcoming on Saturday
  • NWS employees struggling during the government shutdown
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • and more.

.

.

Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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