Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS/Videos/Graphics

February and March outlooks have been updated.

Bonus maps and videos have been updated.

Link to the long range outlooks (Scroll down to the 2nd post at this link for the latest long range outlook) and videos (for subscribers) – Click here

Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Monthly costs to run Weather Talk can top $2000.00

Please consider subscribing!

Here are my monthly out of pocket costs to deliver you the weather.
.

.

Do you want more?  How about short and long range outlooks, videos, and more detailed analysis!

Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Once subscribed you can choose from four different app/text messages!
.

.

Be sure and download the app (subscribers).  The app receives the messages much faster than regular text messaging (same messages, but faster).

.

.

.

.
February 3, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of light rain or flurries.  Most areas will remain dry through the afternoon hours.
Temperatures:  MO ~  36 to 45      IL ~  36 to 45       KY ~  44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%        IL ~ 30%           KY ~ 20%         TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: 30 to 40
Accumulating snow or ice:  No.
Winds:  South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy. Cold.  Rain or rain/snow/sleet mix developing.  Rain may be mixed with sleet and snow, especially across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  Rain may end as a brief period of snow across much of the area late tonight.  Sleet may occur early in the event just about anywhere.
Temperatures:    MO ~  32 to 38     IL ~ 32 to 38      KY ~ 32 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 90%    TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to widespread.  Greatest coverage may be across the Missouri Bootheel, southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: I will be monitoring the I-64 corridor for a wintry mix.  I will be monitoring northwest Kentucky, as well.  Elsewhere, the rain may end as light snow.  Slushy accumulation of a dusting to an inch possible.  Most areas will likely not receive accumulating snow.
Winds:  South 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 16 mph.  Winds becoming southwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  I can’t rule out icy roads over northern parts of southeast Missouri and near the I-64 corridor in southern Illinois.  I will be monitoring northwest Kentucky, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

.

February 4, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny this morning.  Becoming cloudy.  A 50% to 60% of snow showers re-developing.  Some light accumulation possible.  Becoming windy.  Falling temperatures.  Low wind chill values.
Temperatures:  MO ~  36 to 44      IL ~  36 to 44        KY ~  40 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 50% – 60%       TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Snow showers, light snow, and flurries redeveloping during the afternoon hours.
Wind chill values: 10 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice: 0″ to 1″ of snow possible
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming north and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 35 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Strong winds.  Monitor afternoon snow chances.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be turning colder and snow showers are possible.

.

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Evening snow showers.  Snow ending.  Bitterly cold.  Low wind chill values.
Temperatures:    MO ~  10 to 15     IL ~ 10 to 15        KY ~ 12 to 16
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early.  Ending.
Wind chill values:  -5 to 15 above
Accumulating snow or ice: Light dusting or so possible.
Winds:  North 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph (esp early)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some slick spots if the snow showers linger.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but check radars and current conditions.

.

February 5, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny with passing clouds.  Chilly.
Temperatures:  MO ~  35 to 40       IL ~  34 to 38        KY ~  35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 0 to 15 before 11 AM and then 20 to 35 during the afternoon hours
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds:  Winds becoming east and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  If snow lingers Sunday night, then watch for slick spots
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.

.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of light snow, freezing rain, and light rain developing late.
Temperatures:    MO ~  26 to 32      IL ~ 25 to 30        KY ~ 26 to 32
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late.
Wind chill values: 18 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Possible, but confidence on timing of precipitation is questionable
Winds:  Winds south becoming southwest and perhaps west at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates

.

February 6, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain.  Some accumulation of wintry precipitation is possible.  The track of the area of low pressure will determine who receives frozen precipitation and who receives rain.
Temperatures:  MO ~  32 to 44        IL ~  32 to 44         KY ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread.  There are some questions above timing of precipitation.
Wind chill values: 24 to 32
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor updates.  Some accumulation of snow and ice is possible.
Winds:  Northeast and east winds at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.

.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain likely.  Monitor updates.  It appears that all types of precipitation will be possible in the region.
Temperatures:    MO ~  25 to 30      IL ~ 25 to 30        KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: Yes.  Some accumulation of ice and snow possible.  Monitor updates.
Winds: East wind becoming north at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Icy roads possible.  Monitor the ice potential for spotty power outages.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

.

February 7, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning clouds.  Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain possible before 2 PM.  Timing of the precipitation ending will need to be fine tuned.
Temperatures:  MO ~  30 to 35        IL ~  30 to 35         KY ~ 33 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 50%          TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds:  North at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor for icy road conditions across portions of the region
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.

.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Chilly.
Temperatures:    MO ~  18 to 22      IL ~ 18 to 22        KY ~ 18 to 22
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 12 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

.

February 8, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~  36 to 42        IL ~  36 to 42        KY ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 30 to 40
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Chilly.
Temperatures:    MO ~  25 to 30      IL ~ 25 to 30        KY ~ 25 to 30
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 18 to 24
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

.

.
The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Now through next Friday  A few thunderstorms are possible late Monday night and Tuesday/Tuesday night.  The best chance of lightning would be across the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.  This is highly dependent on the track of the area of low pressure and placement of the warm front.  Monitor updates.

.

.
February 3, 2018

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link.

I will be holding a Milk and Cookies with Beau Sunday night at 8 PM.  I will be discussing a possible winter weather event Monday night into Tuesday night.  Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible across PORTIONS of our region.  Others may end up with mostly rain.

You can join in on the discussion on my weather Facebook page.  Here is the link ~  Beau Dodson Weather Facebook Page

I will start a thread around 8 PM Sunday.

.

.

Here are the latest weather highlights.
.

.

.

.

Forecast:

Winter Weather Radar
Be sure and turn on the winterize button above the local city view radars
Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link.

Saturday into Sunday:

HIGHLIGHTS 

1.  Clouds today with chilly temperatures.  A flurry possible.
2.  Rain chances ramp up tonight.
3.  Rain may begin as a wintry mix before changing to all rain.  Rain may then end as light snow late tonight.

High confidence in the forecast through Sunday afternoon.

Clouds will increase as we push into Saturday afternoon.  A new storm system will spread light rain and rain showers back into the region Saturday night.  Rain should end by early Sunday morning over most of the area.  A few remaining showers possible before 11 AM (esp our eastern counties).

Temperatures may be cold enough for a wintry mix at the beginning of the event.  This is especially true across the I-64 corridor (norther portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois).  We should also monitor northwest Kentucky.  Our far eastern counties.  Along a line from Evansville towards Central City.

Elsewhere, this should be a rain or rain/snow mix event.  Perhaps a few sleet pellets at the beginning.

Portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois may see very little in the way of measurable rainfall.  See the rain chart below.

The rain may end as light snow late tonight and early Sunday morning.  Temperatures will be marginal for snow.  No accumulation to perhaps a slushy dusting in a few locations.

A fast moving disturbance could also bring snow showers Sunday afternoon and evening.

Here is the official WPC rainfall forecast map through Sunday morning.  You can see light totals across portions of the region.  Heavier totals to the south of our region.

Click image to enlarge.

.

.

Here is my rainfall totals forecast.

The best chance of 0.40″ to 0.80″ would be along the KY/TN border.

What is the % chance of X amount of rain falling Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

.

.

Here is the latest NAM model guidance future-cast radar.  Green and yellow represent rain.  Blue represents snow.  Other colors are a wintry mix.

Time stamp upper left.  Click image to enlarge.

This is for the late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night event.

Notice at the end there are a few snow showers.  That is the fast moving disturbance Sunday afternoon and evening.
.

.

Here is the EC model guidance showing the probability of 1″ of snow between now and Sunday afternoon.

Notice how the numbers increase across our northern and northeastern counties.

The EC might be a little too high on the % numbers, but you get the overall general idea.  As you move further east and northeast the odds of some snow with this event increases.

This is for Saturday night/Sunday.

Click image to enlarge.
.

.

Here is my latest snow probability forecast map for Saturday night and Sunday.  

This is mostly a rain event.  A few snow flakes or sleet pellets possible at the beginning of the event.  A wintry mix briefly possible near the I-64 corridor and across northwest Kentucky.  Roads will be cold near the I-64 corridor.  That could mean icy patches.  Use care Saturday night.

Rain may end as light snow area-wide after 2 am Sunday.  Accumulation appears unlikely.  Slushy dusting for some can’t be ruled out.  Generally, however, no significant impacts are anticipated.
.

.

Sunday night into Monday afternoon:

HIGHLIGHTS

1.  Some clouds Sunday night into Monday morning.  A chance of snow flurries or snow showers.  This is especially true for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  At this time,  accumulation appears unlikely in our local area.  Further north and west there could be some accumulation.
2.  Falling temperatures Sunday into Sunday afternoon.
3.  Cold Sunday night.

Medium to high confidence on the Sunday night through Monday afternoon forecast.

Temperatures will fall Sunday as the colder air wraps around the storm system (see graphic below).

A fast moving disturbance could produce snow flurries and snow showers late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.  At this time, it appears it will produce little in the way of precipitation locally.  I will, as always, keep an eye on it.

Here is my latest snow probability forecast map for Sunday night into Monday afternoon
.

.
Click image to enlarge.

You can see how temperatures fall during the day on Sunday.  Time stamp upper left.
.

.
Monday night into Friday:

HIGHLIGHTS

1.  Another in a series of storm systems will spread precipitation back into our region. High confidence.
2.  Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain likely Monday night into Tuesday night.  Some debate on when precipitation begins.  Bulk of precipitation may end up being Tuesday/Tuesday night.
3.  Most of the precipitation will likely have ended by Wednesday morning.  Medium confidence.
4.  Dry weather Thursday and Friday.  Medium confidence.

Yet another storm system will spread precipitation back into the region late Monday night or Tuesday morning.  Cold air will be in place at the start of the event.  That could mean a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow.  Temperatures may warm enough for all rain across portions of the area.  This will need to be monitored.

Confidence on the exact type of precipitation and timing of change-over is low.  Monitor updates, as always.

The Storm Prediction Center has even outlined portions of the area for thunderstorms.  The greatest risk will be across the Bootheel of Missouri and western Tennessee.  The placement of the warm front will determine where thunderstorms occur.
.

.

The  track and intensity of the system is key to precipitation type.  Monitor updates.

Here is the NAM model guidance future-cast radar for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink/red/purple is sleet and freezing rain.

This system should produce all types of precipitation.  There is a signal for freezing rain.  This will need to be monitored.

Still a bit early for certainties.  If the track of the system shifts further north then that would cut down on the frozen precipitation potential.  If it tracks further south then the frozen precipitation would impact more of the region.

Time stamp upper left.
.

.
Here is the GFS model guidance future-cast radar.  Another model’s opinion.  You can see that it also has the rain/snow/ice line across our area.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink/red/purple is sleet and freezing rain.

Time stamp upper left.
.

.
Here is the Canadian GEM model guidance.  Another model’s opinion.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink/red/purple is sleet and freezing rain.

Time stamp upper left.

.

.

What are ensembles?
.

.

Here is the EC model guidance ensemble forecast for snow.  This is the mean of all the model runs.  You can see it does have a signal for frozen precipitation in our local area.

This is just the models opinion.  Other models show different solutions.

You can see that the EC model guidance favors our northern counties for snow and ice.

Don’t get caught up in exact numbers.  Just take the general idea that some frozen precipitation is possible.

.

.
Here is the EC model guidance ensemble snow and ice outlook.  A lot of the squares indicate the potential for frozen precipitation in our local area.  This does add some confidence to the forecast.

Click image to enlarge
.

.
The WPC/NOAA forecast currently has the snow fairly far north.  This is the Monday night into Tuesday night event.  We will see how it goes.

Still some questions and debate about the track of the area if low pressure.  Meteorologists are not in agreement.

I suggest you check back frequently for updates.  The forecast will evolve with time.
.

.
CIPS analogs (looking back at previous events and comparing then to the current state of the atmosphere) is showing a signal for freezing rain.

These colors represent the probability of freezing rain lasting one or more hours.  The general idea is that the CIPS analogs are picking up a signal for freezing rain.
.

.

Here is the GFS snowfall forecast.  Remember, this is just one model of many.  These graphics will likely change over the coming days.  Check back frequently for updates.

.

.

Here is the Canadian models opinion on snow totals.  Again, just one model.  One opinion.  It will likely change over the coming days.
.

.
You get the general idea.  There is the potential of some snow and ice in the region Monday night into Tuesday night.

Monitor updates.

Here is my latest snow probability forecast map for Monday night into Wednesday morning

It is still too soon to make a snowfall forecast.
.

.

Friday night into Sunday (February 9th through the 11th)

HIGHLIGHTS

1.  Another in a series of storm systems may spread precipitation back into our region late next week. Low confidence.
2.  It is too early to know what type of precipitation.  Monitor updates

I will initiate a graphic on next weekends system.  Still early to know the details on this one.
.

.

.

We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.