Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 27, 2018: Here comes the rain.

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February 27, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.  Increasing clouds this afternoon.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68      IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: East and southeast winds becoming south at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Tuesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Becoming cloudy.  A chance of showers, mainly late.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 48 to 52      IL ~ 46 to 52      KY ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 80%    IL ~ 80%    KY ~ 80%    TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation:  Increasing coverage overnight.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways late.  Isolated lightning risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Rain, mostly late

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February 28, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  Mild temperatures.  Scattered showers, mainly before noon.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.  The highest chance of rain should be before 12 PM over our northern counties.  At any given time from the Ohio River southward.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65          IL ~  60 to 65        KY ~  60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, mainly before noon.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways before noon
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.

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Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Cool.  Rain likely. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  46 to 52           IL ~  46 to 52           KY ~  48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 80%      IL ~ 80%       KY ~ 80%          TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High on the rain.  Low on the thunderstorms.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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March 1, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy early.  Highs early in the day.  Windy.  Turning cooler.  A chance of showers before noon.  Showers ending.
Temperatures:  MO ~  54 to 58           IL ~  54 to 58           KY ~  54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Southwest to west & northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.  Some morning showers possible.  Strong winds.

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Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Clearing.  Cool.  Windy.
Temperatures:  MO ~  30 to 35          IL ~  30 to 35         KY ~  30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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March 2, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Nice.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55           IL ~  50 to 55         KY ~  50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Northwest and north at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~  29 to 34           IL ~  28 to 34           KY ~  30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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March 3, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Nice.
Temperatures:  MO ~  58 to 64           IL ~  58 to 64           KY ~  60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures:  MO ~  35 to 40          IL ~ 35 to 40           KY ~  35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Southeast at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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March 4, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.  A few afternoon high clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65           IL ~  60 to 65        KY ~  60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers after 2 AM
Temperatures:  MO ~  40 to 45          IL ~  40 to 45          KY ~  40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roadways late
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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March 5, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Scattered showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~  56 to 62           IL ~  56 to 62          KY ~  56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor

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Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~  40 to 45          IL ~  40 to 45          KY ~  40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor
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Today through Sunday:  Winter weather is not anticipated.
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2014-11-24_13-38-04

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Today through Thursday:  No severe weather.  Lightning is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
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beausanalysis

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The daily outlook can be found at the bottom of this post.
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.
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HIGHLIGHTS

  1.  Dry and mild today, but rain chances increase tonight.
  2.  Scattered showers early Wednesday.
  3.  Widespread rain Wednesday night ending Thursday morning.
  4.  Severe weather appears unlikely with this event.  Lightning is possible.
  5.  Strong and gusty winds Thursday.  Gusts above 35 mph possible.
  6.  Flooding continues to be a problem.
  7.  Dry Thursday night through Sunday afternoon.
  8.  Rain chances may return late Sunday afternoon into Monday.

High confidence today into Wednesday night.

Well, enjoy today, because rain returns tonight.  It would have been nice to have a dry week.  The rivers could use a break.  We could all use a break.  Seems we swing from drought to flood.  Hard to find some middle ground in our region.

The good news is that severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are not in the forecast through Sunday.  We could have some lightning tonight into Wednesday night.

The heaviest rain totals will likely be across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and then along the Kentucky and Tennessee border southward.

Rain totals of 0.75″ to 1.75″ are anticipated.  Locally higher totals are possible.  I can’t rule out a few thunderstorms.  The severe weather risk should remain to our south, but I will monitor trends.

Here is the current NOAA rain forecast.  This is what should fall Tuesday night into Thursday morning.
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Portions of the region have been placed in a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding Wednesday and Wednesday night.
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Here is the NAM model guidance future-cast radar.

Green and yellow represent rain.  Blue is snow (well to our north).

Notice those tightening black lines Thursday.  Those are isobars.  Isobars are equal lines of pressure.  Tightly packed isobars mean strong and gusty winds.
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Timestamp upper left portion of the graphic.
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Conditions dry out Thursday morning/afternoon.  Winds pick up Thursday as a strong pressure gradient develops.

You can expect some wind gusts over 35 mph Thursday.  Not sure if a wind advisory will be necessary.  I will monitor trends in the guidance.

Here is the 12 PM wind gust forecast for Thursday.  Winds will be gusty throughout the day.
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Dry weather Friday through Sunday morning.  Rain may return Sunday afternoon or night and continue into Monday.

Most of Sunday afternoon should be dry.  Southeast Missouri could have a few late afternoon showers.  I will keep an eye on it.  I would not change any outdoor plans, at this point.

The GFS model guidance shows the potential of rain late in the weekend and early next week.

Green represents the rain totals from 12 PM through 6 PM Sunday.
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Green represents the rain totals from 6 PM Sunday to 12 AM Monday.

Green represents the rain totals from 12 AM to 6 AM Monday.

Several tornadoes touched down in my forecast area.  I will post more about that tomorrow.  Storm surveys continue.
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Here is one (of several) alert that I sent out during the event.  I won’t make one of these for every tornado, but I just want to give you an idea of what you can receive in your app.  I hand type those alerts.
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Need to check the latest river crest forecast?  Click here.

We will need to monitor river stages.  Rivers are going to rise over the coming weeks.
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The preliminary spring and summer forecast has been posted on the subscription website.  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Spring and Summer outlook – Click here

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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Live lightning data ~ click here
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12345r
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

 

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