Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 26, 2018: More rain.

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February 26, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to 58     KY ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A few passing clouds.  Cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 34 to 38       IL ~ 34 to 38       KY ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

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February 27, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: East and southeast winds becoming south at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Tuesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers late.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 45 to 50      IL ~ 45 to 50      KY ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Increasing coverage overnight.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways late. Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Rain, mostly late

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February 28, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  Mild temperatures.  Scattered showers.  A thunderstorm possible.  The highest chance of rain should be before 12 PM.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65          IL ~  60 to 65        KY ~  60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways before noon
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.

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Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Cool.  Rain likely. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  45 to 50           IL ~  45 to 50           KY ~  45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 80%      IL ~ 80%       KY ~ 80%          TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South at 8 t0 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High on the rain.  Low on the thunderstorms.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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March 1, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy early.  Windy.  A chance of isolated showers before noon.  Showers ending.
Temperatures:  MO ~  54 to 58           IL ~  54 to 58           KY ~  54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Southwest to west & northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.  Some morning showers possible.  Strong winds.

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Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Clearing.  Cool.  Windy.
Temperatures:  MO ~  30 to 35          IL ~  30 to 35         KY ~  30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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March 2, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Nice.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55           IL ~  50 to 55         KY ~  50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Northwest and north at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~  30 to 35           IL ~  30 to 35           KY ~  30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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March 3, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Nice.
Temperatures:  MO ~  53 to 56           IL ~  53 to 56           KY ~  53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures:  MO ~  33 to 36           IL ~  32 to 36           KY ~  32 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Southeast at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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March 4, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.  A few afternoon high clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~  56 to 62           IL ~  56 to 62          KY ~  56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers after 2 AM
Temperatures:  MO ~  40 to 45          IL ~  40 to 45          KY ~  40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roadways late
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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March 5, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Scattered showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~  56 to 62           IL ~  56 to 62          KY ~  56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor

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Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~  40 to 45          IL ~  40 to 45          KY ~  40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor

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Today through Friday:  Winter weather is not anticipated.
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2014-11-24_13-38-04

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Today through Tuesday afternoon:  No severe weather.

Tuesday night through Thursday morning:  At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.  Lightning can’t be ruled out Tuesday night into Wednesday night.  I will closely monitor the severe weather threat to our south.

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beausanalysis

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The daily outlook can be found at the bottom of this post.
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.
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HIGHLIGHTS

  1.  Finally a couple of calm days.
  2.  Rain chances return Tuesday night and will linger into Thursday.
  3.  Flooding continues to be a problem.
  4.  Dry Thursday night through Sunday afternoon.

High confidence today into Tuesday night.

Last week was a long week!  I realized how long it was when I noticed I labeled something February 29th!

It was an active weekend for meteorologists.  Flash flooding, damaging winds, and tornadoes struck the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Several tornadoes touched down in my forecast area.  I will post more about that tomorrow.  Storm surveys continue.
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A few people had issues receiving the app/text messages.  If you did not receive them, then please email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

We were ahead of almost every tornado warning.  If you were in a tornado warned county then you should have received my app/text alert messages.

Here is a link that shows you the messages that I sent out.  Remember, these are county sensitive.  You would only receive the ones that I sent to your county.  Click here for that list.

Let’s take a look at how much rain fell over the last seven days.  This is what has ALREADY FALLEN.

Central United States view.  Click image to enlarge.
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Extreme Missouri and Illinois view.  Click image to enlarge.
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Extreme southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee view.  Click image to enlarge.
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Arkansas, west Tennessee, and Bootheel view.  Click image to enlarge.
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The good news is that we have some nice weather today into Tuesday afternoon.  It will be mild with highs mostly in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s.  That isn’t bad for February!

Monday afternoon highs
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Tuesday afternoon highs
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Rain chances ramp up Tuesday night as southwest wind flow returns.  This will spread moisture northward into our region.  Rain chances will continue into Thursday morning.  Rain totals of 0.75″ to 1.75″ are anticipated.  Locally higher totals are possible.  I can’t rule out a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.  The severe weather risk should remain to our south, but I will monitor trends.  Adjustments are possible.

Here is the current NOAA rain forecast.  This is what should fall Tuesday night into Thursday.

Monitor updates in case the system tracks a bit further north.
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Portions of the region have been placed in a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding Wednesday and Wednesday night.
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Green represents rain.

Notice those tightening black lines Thursday.  Those are isobars.  Isobars are equal lines of pressure.  Tightly packed isobars mean strong and gusty winds.

Timestamp upper left portion of the graphic.
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Conditions dry out Thursday morning/afternoon.  Winds pick up Thursday as a strong pressure gradient develops.

You can expect some wind gusts over 35 mph Thursday.  Not sure if a wind advisory will be necessary.  I will monitor trends in the guidance.

Here is the 12 PM wind gust forecast for Thursday.  Winds will be gusty throughout the day.
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Dry weather Friday through Sunday.  Rain may return around Monday.

Need to check the latest river crest forecast?  Click here.

We will need to monitor river stages.  Rivers are going to rise over the coming weeks.
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The preliminary spring and summer forecast has been posted on the subscription website.  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Spring and Summer outlook – Click here

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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Live lightning data ~ click here
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12345r
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

 

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