Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology. Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage. Visit them on their website and on Facebook. You can also find them on Twitter. They are located in Almo, Kentucky. Phone 270-718-0245
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We are working on the Android APP. Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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February 24, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Best chances over the eastern half of the region. Becoming partly cloudy late. Breezy, at times. Much colder. Flurries possible late over northern parts of southern Illinois. No accumulation, if they even occur.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Will need to monitor whether severe weather is a concern for our eastern counties of the region.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates (mainly the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky and then eastward from there)
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered and ending from west to east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars. Some storms in the area (eastern counties mainly)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 36 IL ~ 28 to 36 KY ~ 33 to 38 TN ~ 34 to 38
Winds: Becoming north and northwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 25 to 30
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? Nothing of significant. Stray flurry possible near Mt. Vernon.
Moonrise will be at 5:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 25, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny and colder.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 45 IL ~ 38 to 45 KY ~ 38 to 45 TN ~ 38 to 46
Winds: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 30 to 40
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:45 p.m.
UV Index: 2 to 4
Moonrise will be at 5:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:00 p.m. Waning Crescent
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Patchy fog possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some lower visibility if fog forms.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 24 to 30 IL ~25 t0 30 KY ~ 26 to 32 TN ~ 26 to 32
Winds: West and northwest at 0 to 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 25 to 30
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 5:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:00 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 26, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Sunshine during the morning hours. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. A chance for a shower during the afternoon hours over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways..
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty afternoon showers possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 46 to 54 TN ~ 46 to 54
Winds: Becoming south at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:48 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 3
Moonrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:03 p.m. New Moon
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updated forecasts.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 36 to 42 TN ~ 36 to 44
Winds: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:03 p.m. New Moon
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February 27, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy with a good chance for showers before 12 pm and then scattered showers after 12 pm
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the day and then scattered during the afternoon
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have an alternative plan
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:47 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 2
Moonrise will be at 7:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:09 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have an alternative plan in mind. Confidence is low as to if rain chances will linger into Monday night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds: Variable winds 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 7:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:09 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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February 28, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance for showers. Strong storms possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Possible
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have an alternative plan
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:47 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 2
Moonrise will be at 7:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:15 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Possible
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have an alternative plan in mind.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds: West and southwest winds 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 7:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:15 p.m. Waxing Crescent
More information on the UV index. Click here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Analysis
Friday night
Confidence: High
Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end on Friday evening. Storm chances will linger the longest over our eastern counties. That would include the Pennyrile area. A few strong storms possible (before 10 pm). Most of the rain should end by the late evening hours (after 10).
We should experience some clearing overnight. Gusty winds with cold temperatures. Lows will bottom out in the upper 20’s to middle 30’s across the region.
Here is the high resolution HRRR model. This is future-cast radar for Friday evening.
7 pm future-cast radar
9 pm. Rain is moving east and should be out of the region by the mid to late evening hours.
Radars to track precipitation
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
Saturday and Saturday night
Confidence: High
I am not anticipating any weather issues on Saturday. Partly to mostly sunny sky conditions. It will be cold with high temperatures in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s. That would be several degrees the normal high of 50 degrees.
Saturday night should be clear and chilly with lows in the 20’s. Perhaps some patchy fog. No precipitation.
Sunday and Sunday night
Confidence: Medium
Sunday should be dry during the morning and afternoon hours. Clouds should increase on Sunday afternoon and thicken on Sunday evening. It will be cool on Monday. Expect high temperatures in the upper 40’s to middle 50’s.
Clouds thicken and lower on Sunday night as rain chances increase. It will be chilly at the onset of the precipitation. I was thinking a rain/snow mix would be possible. It looks like this is mostly a rain event with small chances for ice pellets at the beginning. No accumulation and no problems. It will be too warm for problems to develop. Thus, a novelty sleet pellet possible with no impact.
Rain chances increase through the night. Highest chances will occur after midnight.
I did note the NAM guidance showed rain developing over our western counties (southeast Missouri) as early as Sunday afternoon. This seems unlikely, but I will monitor trends.
3 PM Sunday Future-cast radar from the NAM guidance. Again, NAM is likely to early with the onset of precipitation chances.
This next image is for 9 pm on Sunday
This next image is for 3 am on Monday
This next image is for 6 pm on Monday
Monday through Wednesday
Confidence: Medium
The extended forecast will mostly center around rain chances on Monday into Wednesday. Several periods of showers and perhaps thunderstorms are anticipated. It appears, at this time, that chances peak on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
There is quite a bit of disagreement in the guidance as to the exact timing of the highest rain chances.
Most of the data agrees that rain should end on Wednesday afternoon or night.
Temperatures will remain above normal on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Highs on both Monday and Tuesday could top 58 degrees. Highs on Wednesday may remain mostly in the 50’s.
At this time, severe weather is not anticipated.
There is also disagreement on how much rain will fall. This is mainly because of the differing storm tracks in the guidance.
The GFS shows this much rain falling between now and Wednesday
The Canadian guidance shows this much rain falling
We still have some time to tune the forecast. The main idea is that we will have some rain chances on Sunday night into Wednesday.
The leaf index shows early leafs likely this year
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Here is the official NOAA rainfall predictions
Other than Friday evening showers, no precipitation is anticipated through Sunday afternoon.
Rain chances increase Sunday night into Wednesday. Some areas could pick up 0.20″ to 0.60″. We need this rain. It is dry. Drought is developing.
Here is the official NOAA rainfall forecast. This will likely need adjustments moving forward.
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Saturday low temperature forecast
Saturday afternoon high temperature forecast
Sunday low temperature forecast
Sunday high temperature forecast
Friday evening thunderstorms are the main concern. Lightning. Isolated severe weather risk. No major concerns for Saturday or Sunday. Small risk for patchy overnight dense fog on Saturday night.
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Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday night: Strong storms possible during the evening hours of our eastern counties. That would include the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Storms will end from west to east this evening.
Saturday through Monday: At this time, severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Severe weather possible.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
