Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology. Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage. Visit them on their website and on Facebook. You can also find them on Twitter. They are located in Almo, Kentucky. Phone 270-718-0245
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A 20% chance for a shower. Mild.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps a few wet roadways. Small risk for lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~56 to 64 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 64
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph possible.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 4:28 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:59 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 24, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Breezy. Warm, for February. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (mainly after 1 pm). Temperatures will fall behind the cold front (late in the day) into the 50’s (mainly over southeast MO and southern IL). Timing of the front will need to be monitored and would impact temperatures late in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few strong storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? I can’t rule out some strong storms. This would mainly be over southeast Illinois and portions of western Kentucky. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, mainly during the afternoon
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates moving forward
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward IL ~ 70 to 75 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward KY ~ 72 to 76 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward TN ~72 to 76 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward
Winds: South and southwest 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts likely. Winds becoming west and northwest through the day as a cold front passes across the region.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:30 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:44 p.m.
UV Index: 2 to 4
Moonrise will be at 5:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 p.m. Waning Crescent
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Best chances over the eastern half of the region. Becoming partly cloudy late. Breezy, at times. Much colder. Flurries possible late over northern parts of southern Illinois. No accumulation, if they even occur.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Will need to monitor whether severe weather is a concern for our eastern counties of the region.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates (mainly the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky and then eastward from there)
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered and ending from west to east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars. Some storms in the area (eastern counties mainly)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 36 IL ~ 28 to 36 KY ~ 33 to 38 TN ~ 34 to 38
Winds: Becoming north and northwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 25 to 30
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? Nothing of significant. Stray flurry possible near Mt. Vernon.
Moonrise will be at 5:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 25, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny and colder.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 45 IL ~ 38 to 45 KY ~ 38 to 45 TN ~ 38 to 46
Winds: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 30 to 40
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:45 p.m.
UV Index: 2 to 4
Moonrise will be at 5:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:00 p.m. Waning Crescent
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Patchy fog possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some lower visibility if fog forms.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 24 to 30 IL ~25 t0 30 KY ~ 26 to 32 TN ~ 26 to 32
Winds: West and northwest at 0 to 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 25 to 30
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 5:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:00 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 26, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Sunshine during the morning hours. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. A slight chance for a shower during the afternoon hours over southeast Missouri.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but I will be monitoring southeast Missouri after 2 pm for showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 46 to 54 TN ~ 46 to 54
Winds: Becoming south at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:48 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 3
Moonrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:03 p.m. New Moon
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updated forecasts.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 36 to 42 TN ~ 36 to 44
Winds: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:03 p.m. New Moon
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February 27, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy with a good chance for showers before 12 pm and then scattered showers after 12 pm
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the day and then scattered during the afternoon
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have an alternative plan
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:47 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 2
Moonrise will be at 7:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:09 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have an alternative plan in mind. Confidence is low as to if rain chances will linger into Monday night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds: Variable winds 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 7:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:09 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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February 28, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance for showers. A thunderstorm possible. Warmer.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have an alternative plan
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:47 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 2
Moonrise will be at 7:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:15 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have an alternative plan in mind.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds: West and southwest winds 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 7:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:15 p.m. Waxing Crescent
More information on the UV index. Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Analysis
Thursday night
Confidence: Medium
No major concerns. Mild temperatures. Small shower chances as a warm front moves northward overnight. Mostly out of our local area. Still, a light shower can’t be completely ruled out.
Winds will become strong and gusty. Expect gusts above 30 mph. There is a bit of an inversion tonight. That might keep winds from gusting too high. Either way, plan on gusty winds tonight.
Here is the NAM guidance for tonight. Wind gust map. It does show some 40+ mph gusts.
Friday and Friday night
Confidence: Medium
A cold front will enter the region on Friday afternoon and night. The front will sweep from west to east. This will knock our temperatures down. I know, right 🙂 Spring fever has spoiled us.
Check out temperatures ahead of the front! Wow.
You can see a sharp temperature drop as the front moves through. This is the 3 PM temperature map.
Ahead of the front we will have a mix of sun and clouds. Mild temperatures. Expect highs in the 70’s on Friday. Temperatures will fall immediately behind the cold front. If the front moves through quick enough then plan on temperatures falling into the upper 40’s to middle 50’s. This would most likely be over portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Again, temperatures are highly dependent on how fast the front moves through the area.
The front may not move through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois until late afternoon. Thus, the temperatures might remain warm for most of the day.
Check out the dew point map for Friday. Dew points are a great way to measure moisture in the lower atmosphere.
This is the 6 pm Friday dew point map. Notice how fast dew points fall behind the cold front. Impressive. Moist air ahead of the front and dry air behind the front. One ingredient for storms.
A few thunderstorms are forecast to form along the front. I am not overly concerned about severe weather. I have been thinking the greatest severe weather risk would be to our north and east. SPC now shifting that way, as well.
We will need to closely monitor Friday afternoon and evening. If thunderstorms do form then a few could become strong or even severe. Damaging wind would be the main concern. Perhaps hail. A non-zero tornado risk. Again, greatest concern is more north and east.
SPC continues to shift their outlook further away from our local area. This map will change two or three times between now and Friday afternoon. Monitor any watches or warnings that are issued.
Let’s look at the high resolution NAM guidance
This is the future-cast radar. What radar MIGHT look like Friday afternoon and evening. You can see a thin band of showers and storms forming along the cold front. Some guidance shows no precipitation in our local area. Keep that in mind. There is lower than normal confidence that storms will accompany the front in our local area.
This first map is for 1 pm on Friday. Blue indicates showers and a few storms.
2 PM Friday future-cast radar
3 PM Friday
4 PM Friday
5 PM Friday
6 PM Friday
Monitor radars on Friday afternoon and night.
We need rain. Let’s look at the latest precipitation anomaly map. This is for the last 30 days. We need rain.
Let’s look at the SPI index. SPI is a way to measure moisture in the ground. I like this better than the official NOAA drought monitor maps.
This first map is for the last 30 days. SPI index map. Portions of the region are in severe dryness.
Let’s look at the past 60 days
Let’s look at the last 90 days
Saturday into Sunday night
Confidence: Medium
Expect some sunshine on Saturday with colder temperatures. Highs may remain in the 40’s. That would actually be below normal, for once.
Saturday morning temperature map
Here is the Saturday temperature map for 3 pm
Lows by Sunday morning will range from 25 to 32 degrees. Chilly, but nothing extreme.
Sunday 6 AM temperature map
Clouds should increase on Sunday afternoon and evening. Another system will approach our region from the southwest. Rain should develop as early as Sunday night and continue on/off into Tuesday. Some guidance indicates rain chances into Wednesday. This will need to be monitored.
Here is the GFS future-cast radar for Sunday night and Monday morning 11 PM to 1 AM
You can see rain in our region. Some heavy downpours, as well. Snow is confined to our north and northeast.
This next image is for 12 PM on Monday.
Temperatures on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday should average above normal. Expect 50’s on Monday. 60’s on Tuesday. Upper 50’s to around 60 on Wednesday (some of this will depend on the placement of the area of low pressure). If the low is further south then it will be colder Monday into Wednesday.
We should dry out on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Active storm pattern the next three weeks. We should have events to track every 2 to 4 days. Spring pattern evolving.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Here is the official NOAA rainfall predictions
A broken line of showers and storms should form on Friday afternoon and evening. Some areas may receive no measurable rainfall. A few spots will receive 0.10″ to 0.20″. Thunderstorms could produce 0.20″ to 0.50″ in isolated spots.
This does not look like a widespread rain event.
Better rain chances arrive on Sunday night into Wednesday. Some of that precipitation could be on the heavy side.
Let’s break it down
Here are the rainfall totals forecast for Friday and Friday night. As you can see, portions of the area have a better chance for rain than other areas. That would include parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
Click the image to enlarge
This next graphic is for the Sunday night into Wednesday rain event. Perhaps a better chance for widespread rain.
This next graphic is for the Friday rain event, as well. This is the GFS model. Again, not a lot of rain.
This next graphic is the GFS model from now through next Wednesday.
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Friday low temperature forecast
Friday afternoon high temperature forecast
Saturday low temperature forecast
Saturday high temperature forecast
Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. I can’t rule out some strong storms, but the greatest risk appears to be more east and northeast of our region.
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Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday into Friday evening: A chance for some showers and thunderstorms along an incoming cold front. There is at least some chance for strong storms. Severe weather concerns will need to be monitored. Better chances for severe weather over our eastern counties vs western. Eastern counties would include southeast Illinois and portions of western Kentucky.
To me, this continues to look more like an Indiana and Ohio event. Smaller chances locally vs those areas.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the Ohio Valley for a severe weather risk on Friday.
The dark green color is a marginal risk for severe weather. The yellow zone is a slight risk for severe weather. The orange zone is an enhanced risk for severe weather.
The highest risk zone would be the yellow and orange.
Click image to enlarge.
This graphic could change several times between now and Friday. Keep that in mind.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
