Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology. Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage. Visit them on their website and on Facebook. You can also find them on Twitter. They are located in Almo, Kentucky. Phone 270-718-0245
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next). The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The APP allows instant delivery. You can keep your test messages on and use the APP. You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.
We are working on the Android APP. Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible An isolated shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. If fog develops then lower visibility.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (if any at all)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 3:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:03 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 23, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Patchy sun. Mild. Well above normal temperatures. An isolated shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 76 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:31 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:43 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 3
Moonrise will be at 4:28 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:59 p.m. Waning Crescent
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A 20% chance for a shower. Mild.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps a few wet roadways. Small risk for lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~56 to 64 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 64
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph possible.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 4:28 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:59 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 24, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Breezy. Very warm, for February. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (mainly after 1 pm). Temperatures will fall behind the cold front into the 50’s (mainly over southeast MO and southern IL). Timing of the front will need to be monitored and would impact temperatures late in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few strong storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? I can’t rule out some strong storms. This would mainly be over southeast Illinois and portions of western Kentucky. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, mainly during the afternoon
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates moving forward
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward IL ~ 70 to 75 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward KY ~ 72 to 76 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward TN ~72 to 76 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward
Winds: South and southwest 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts likely. Winds becoming west and northwest through the day as a cold front passes across the region.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:30 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:44 p.m.
UV Index: 3 to 5
Moonrise will be at 5:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 p.m. Waning Crescent
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Best chances over the eastern half of the region. Becoming partly cloudy late. Breezy, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Will need to monitor whether severe weather is a concern for our eastern counties of the region.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered and ending from west to east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~36 to 42 KY ~ 36 to 42 TN ~ 36 to 42
Winds: Becoming north and northwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 28 to 36
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 5:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 25, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny and cooler.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 30 to 40
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:45 p.m.
UV Index: 2 to 4
Moonrise will be at 5:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:00 p.m. Waning Crescent
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some lower visibility if fog forms.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 26 to 32 IL ~26 t0 32 KY ~ 26 to 34 TN ~ 26 to 32
Winds: West and northwest at 0 to 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 25 to 30
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 5:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:00 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 26, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Sunshine during the morning hours. Increasing clouds during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 46 to 54 TN ~ 46 to 54
Winds: Becoming south and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:48 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 3
Moonrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:03 p.m. New Moon
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible. Chilly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but monitor because confidence is lower than normal.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars, but don’t cancel plans.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 40 IL ~ 34 to 40 KY ~ 34 to 40 TN ~ 34 to 40
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:03 p.m. New Moon
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February 27, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy with a chance for showers.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds:
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:47 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 2
Moonrise will be at 7:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:09 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible. Turning colder.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 40 IL ~ 34 to 40 KY ~ 34 to 40 TN ~ 34 to 40
Winds: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 7:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:09 p.m. Waxing Crescent
More information on the UV index. Click here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Analysis
Wednesday night
Confidence: High
No major concerns. Some patchy fog again possible. Lower visibility, of course, if fog develops. Otherwise, just a small chance for a sprinkle. Temperatures will remain well above normal. Lows will bottom out in the lower to middle 50’s.
Thursday and Thursday night
Confidence: High
No major concerns. Mild temperatures. Well above normal temperatures. If we had full sunshine on Thursday then temperatures would likely pop into the middle to upper 70’s. I think we have some clouds to deal with on Thursday. I will cap high temperatures in the 72 to 76 degree range.
Some morning fog can’t be ruled out. Keep that in mind.
Small shower chances Thursday morning.
Winds will become strong and gusty on Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday night. Winds could top 30 mph. Gradient winds. This will be in response to the tightening low pressure center passing to our northwest and north.
Here is the wind gust forecast map for 12 am on Friday
Here is the wind gust map for 3 am on Friday
There will be at least a small chance for spotty showers late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Nothing to be overly concerned about.
Friday and Friday night
Confidence: Medium
A cold front will enter the region on Friday afternoon and night. The front will sweep from west to east.
Ahead of the front we will have a mix of sun and clouds. Mild temperatures. Expect highs in the 70’s on Friday. Temperatures will fall immediately behind the cold front. If the front moves through quick enough then plan on temperatures falling into the upper 40’s to middle 50’s. This would most likely be over portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Again, temperatures are highly dependent on how fast the front moves through the area.
Here is the temperature forecast map for Friday. I bet you can find the front!
10 a.m. temperatures
2 p.m. temperatures
4 p.m. temperatures
6 p.m. temperatures
Gusty winds ahead and behind the front. Winds will likely gust above 20 mph.
A band of showers and thunderstorms may form along the front. There is not a lot of deep moisture to work with.
The most likely area for showers and storms would be over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. The further east you travel, the higher the chance for precipitation.
Click images to enlarge
These graphics are the future-cast radar from the high resolution NAM guidance. This is what radar MIGHT look like. Keep in mind, this is a models opinion.
The front sweeps eastward through Friday morning and into the evening hours. A band or broken band of showers and storms will likely form along the front. Some question on coverage and intensity.
1 PM Friday
2 PM Friday
3 PM Friday
4 PM Friday
5 PM Friday
6 PM Friday
A few of the storms could be on the strong side. Way too soon to know if severe weather is a concern. Officially, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the area for strong to severe storms. This is highly dependent on the timing of the front. The higher risk for severe weather will be over Indiana and further east into central Kentucky. See the graphic further down in the blog under the severe weather outlook.
Our region could have some intense storms, but confidence is low. Monitor updates, as always.
Temperatures by Saturday morning will have dipped into the 30’s. Normal low temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 30 degrees.
Saturday into Sunday night
Confidence: Low to medium
Expect some sunshine on Saturday with cold temperatures. Highs may remain in the 40’s. That would actually be below normal, for once.
Lows by Sunday morning will range from 25 to 32 degrees. Chilly, but nothing extreme.
Clouds should increase on Sunday afternoon. I am monitoring shower chances for Sunday night into Monday.
The trend in some of the guidance has been to slow down the rain chances until Monday. Guidance is all over the place on this subject. I will include some rain chances for Sunday night. The NWS has removed rain chances for Sunday night. We will see if they put them back in over the coming days. Either way, some disagreement on Sunday nights forecast.
Better rain chances arrive on Monday.
The GFS goes all out with the system on Monday. Other data is not in agreement. The GFS deepens the low further than other models.
Here is what the GFS looks like for Monday. Low pressure passing over our local area. Showers and thunderstorms would be the end result.
This first graphic is midnight on Monday
This next graphic is 6 am on Monday
The models are showing another system for next Wednesday. Busy? Apparently.
Monitor storm chances over the coming weeks. Spring pattern has arrived.
This is next Wednesday morning at 12 a.m.
The GFS paints some heavy rain in our region. Plenty of time to monitor that system.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Here is the official NOAA rainfall predictions
If you read the blog over the past few days you will note that NOAA had the rain falling further east of our region. I was thinking they would pull it back to the west. They have done that in today’s outlook.
There continues to be some questions on intensity over coverage of showers and storms along the front (in our area). The better moisture fields are indeed to our east, but at least some showers and storms are likely to occur in our local area, as well.
Keep in mind, thunderstorms can always produce heavier totals.
Here is the broad-brushed rainfall outlook from NOAA/WPC. Not a lot of rain, but some. I suspect some areas will receive very little in the rain of measurable rain. Keep that in mind.
This will mostly be on Friday and Friday evening.
Pulling out to the next seven days. Here are the rainfall totals
Here is the NAM model guidance for Thursday night into Friday night.
Not much. Again, storms could produce heavier totals.
Here is the GFS model guidance for the same time period. Not much.
The rainfall totals will really come down to placement of precipitation along the incoming front. The better moisture fields are more east than west.
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Thursday low temperature forecast
Thursday afternoon high temperature forecast
Friday low temperature forecast
Friday high temperature forecast
Patchy fog possible Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Monitoring thunderstorm chances on Friday and Friday evening.
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Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night through Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday into Friday evening: A chance for some showers and thunderstorms along an incoming cold front. There is at least some chance for strong storms. Severe weather concerns will need to be monitored. Better chances for severe weather over our eastern counties vs western.
Eastern counties would include southeast Illinois and portions of western Kentucky..
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the Ohio Valley for a severe weather risk on Friday.
The dark green color is a marginal risk for severe weather. The yellow zone is a slight risk for severe weather. The orange zone is an enhanced risk for severe weather.
The highest risk zone would be the yellow and orange.
Click image to enlarge.
This graphic could change several times between now and Friday. Keep that in mind.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
