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Missouri

 

 

Illinois

 

 

 

Kentucky

 

 

 

 

Tennessee

 

 

Today: No.  There are still roads flooded.  Keep that in mind.

Tomorrow:  Yes.   Friday night.  Flooding will again be possible.

Saturday:  Yes.  Saturday is a weather alert day.  We could have some severe thunderstorms.  Monitor updates.

* What is a weather alert day?  It is a day when flooding, severe weather, or wintry precipitation may impact your day.

 

1.  More showers developing.
2.  Heavy rain likely Friday night into Saturday evening.
3.  Storms could be intense Saturday.  Monitor updates concerning severe weather.
4.  River flooding will continue.

 

Confidence rating explained.

• High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
• Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
• Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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The short-range snow, ice, and severe weather forecast.  Days one through three.   

Today through Saturday night.

Monitor the Saturday forecast.  Heavy rain and storms are likely.

1.  Is snow or ice in the forecast today through Friday night?  No.  Some light sleet pellets mixed in with the rain.  No issues.  Too warm.
2.  Is lightning in the forecast today through Friday night?  Yes.  Lightning is possible Friday night into Saturday night.
3.  Is severe weather in the forecast today through Friday night?   Yes.  Severe weather is possible on Saturday.  Monitor updates.
   *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is Flash flooding in the forecast today through Friday night?  Yes.  Some flooding and/or flash flooding is possible Friday night and Saturday.  Monitor updates, watches, and warnings.

 

The long-range snow, ice, and severe weather forecast.  Days four through seven.  

Sunday through Tuesday.

• Is snow or ice in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday?  No.
• Is lightning in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday?  No.
• Is severe weather in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday?  No.
  *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
• Is flash flooding in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday? No.  Monitor Sunday morning.  Friday night through Saturday night’s rain could cause additional flash flooding.

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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February 21, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Increasing clouds.  A few showers mixed with sleet developing from Arkansas and Tennessee and moving north and northeast during the PM hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 52°     SE MO  48° to 52°     South IL  45° to 50°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  46° to 48°    West KY  48° to 50°     NW TN  50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  44° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  40% later this afternoon     MO  20%     IL   20%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  40% late and mainly along the KY/TN border   NW TN  50% in the afternoon
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered late in the day.  Greatest coverage will be from the Bootheel and then along the KY/TN border.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   6:37 AM

 

Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy.  Scattered showers.   Greatest coverage will be over the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  36° to 40°     SE MO  33° to 36°     South IL  32° to 36°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  34° to 36°    West KY  36° to 40°     NW TN  40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  40%      Southeast MO   40%      Southern IL   30%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30%     Western KY  50%      NW TN   50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered north and perhaps numerous south and southeast (towards KY/TN border and east of LBL)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Some wet roadways.  Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.  Have a plan B in our southern counties.
Sunset:   5:41 PM
Moonrise:   8:18 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous
Moonset:   8:10 AM

 

February 22, 2019
Friday’s Forecast:  Cloudy with scattered showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 52°     SE MO  48° to 52°     South IL  48° to 52°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  46° to 50°    West KY  50° to 52°     NW TN  50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  East and northeast at 10 to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  44° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  70%     Southeast MO  60%     Southern IL   50%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50%     Western KY  60%     NW TN  70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   6:36 AM

 

Friday night Forecast:  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain.  Rising temperatures overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  48° to 50°     SE MO  42° to 44°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 48°    West KY  46° to 52°     NW TN  48° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  70%      Southeast MO   60%      Southern IL   60%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  60%     Western KY  70%      NW TN   80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Flooded roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   5:42 PM
Moonrise:   9:29 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous
Moonset:   8:45 AM

 

February 23, 2019

Strong and gust winds Saturday into Saturday night.  Super-saturated ground conditions could mean some downed trees.

Some storms could become severe on Saturday.  Monitor any watches and/or warnings.  Storms would be moving at speeds in excess of 65 mph.

Saturday’s Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely.  There is a risk of severe weather.  Locally heavy rain is likely.  Gusty winds.  Very warm for February.  If the sun comes out then some areas may touch 70 degrees.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  64° to 68°     SE MO  64° to 68°     South IL  64° to 68°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  64° to 68°     West KY  64° to 68°     NW TN  64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  N/A° to N/A°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  70%     Southeast MO  70%     Southern IL   70%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70%     Western KY  70%     NW TN  70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  At times, numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Flooded roadways.  Flash flooding.  Lightning.  Strong winds.  A few storms could produce hail and high winds.  Severe weather is possible.  Monitor the severe weather risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   6:34 AM

 

Saturday night Forecast:  Showers and thunderstorms ending west to east.  A few severe storms are possible.  Locally heavy rain as the cold front pushes east.  Windy.  Turning cooler.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  40° to 45°     SE MO  35° to 40°     South IL  35° to 40°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  38° to 42°    West KY  38° to 42°     NW TN  40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest becoming west and northwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  70%      Southeast MO   60%      Southern IL   60%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  60%     Western KY  70%      NW TN   80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Strong winds.  A few storms could produce hail and high winds.  Monitor the severe weather risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   5:43 PM
Moonrise:   10:35 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous
Moonset:   9:19 AM

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

Sunday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows Sunday night in the upper 20’s to middle 30’s.

Monday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs in the upper 40’s to middle 50’s.  Lows Monday night in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s.

Tuesday: Partly sunny.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows Tuesday night in the 30’s.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of more showers.  Highs in the 40’s.  Lows Tuesday night in the 20’s.

 

The wind speed and direction forecast

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today and tomorrow:  No severe weather concerns.

Friday night through Sunday:  Lightning is possible Friday night and Saturday.  Severe weather is possible Saturday.  Monitor any watches and/or warnings that are issued on Saturday.  If everything comes together as some of the data suggests then large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible.  There remain some questions about instability.  There is medium confidence that severe weather will develop.  I will keep the daily blog updated and Facebook.

Make sure you turn on your tornado alert app/text messages.  See how to do that further down in this weather update.

 

 

Thursday into Sunday:  Accumulating snow is unlikely. 

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Beau’s exclusive eight-day winter weather outlook

The highest probability on days 5, 6, 7, and 8 will be twenty-percent.

Keep in mind, this includes sleet and freezing rain.

 

 

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major changes.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Yes.  Avoid flooded roadways.

Yes.  Monitor the risk of heavy rain and severe weather Friday night into Saturday night.  Severe weather concerns would be Saturday afternoon and evening.

Widespread river flooding continues across the region.

 

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Forecast discussion.

WeatherTalk subscribers, check your severe weather settings.  Make sure your tornado alerts are turned on.

First, check your www.weathertalk.com settings.

Make sure you have turned on WeatherOne in your www.weathertalk.com accounts.

Samples from previous events.

We have been averaging 5 to 10 minutes ahead of other sources.  Always have three or four sources to receive severe weather information.  Do not rely on just one.

Click these images to enlarge them.

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Now, back to the current weather.

Rain showers will develop this afternoon over Arkansas and Tennessee.  Those will begin to slide northward as we move into the evening hours.  Thus, there are some showers in the forecast today.

Many roads remain flooded in the region.  Monitor the latest road closures.  Avoid those roads.  Find alternative routes.

Rain showers will increase tonight and spread a bit further north.  Those rain showers will be with us into Friday.

Here is the future-cast radar. You can see today’s showers develop from south to north.  This also takes us into early Saturday afternoon.

 

 

Another heavy rain event is already on the way.

If you have plans this weekend then pay a bit more attention to what is going on weather-wise.

A conditional threat of severe weather will develop on Saturday (mainly afternoon and evening).

What does a conditional risk mean?  It means that certain conditions must be met in order for severe weather to develop.

We need surface based CAPE.

What is CAPE.  Think of CAPE as energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

There are two types of CAPE.  Surface-based and elevated.

Elevated CAPE typically produces hail and can produce strong winds.  Surface CAPE can produce all modes of severe weather.

We will have a CAP.

What is a CAP?  It is a lid on the atmosphere that keeps thunderstorms from being surface based.  Elevated thunderstorms can form with a CAP.  Surface-based means that thunderstorms can tap into the atmosphere at the lowest level.  Surface-based storms are typically the ones that produce supercells.  Supercells can produce large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.

If we do not have surface based CAPE then severe weather is less likely Saturday.

If we have surface based CAPE then large hail, damaging wind, straight line wind, and tornadoes will be possible Saturday.

We likely won’t know whether we will have surface based CAPE until Friday night or early Saturday morning.

A lot of this will depend on just how much cloud cover and ongoing precipitation occurs during the day on Saturday.

Clouds and precipitation can keep surface CAPE from forming.

The wind shear will be strong with this event.  Wind shear is the change of wind speed or wind direction with height.  Strong wind shear is one ingredient necessary when forecasting severe weather.

Wind shear Saturday will be strong!  So strong that it could rip the developing thunderstorm updrafts apart.  No surface based CAPE and the storms likely won’t be able to sustain significant updrafts.  Updrafts are necessary for thunderstorms to grow in height and intensity.

If we have more sunshine then the atmosphere can become more unstable.  Surface-based CAPE usually forms if we have sunshine.

 

 

Flash flood alert.

We will have a flash flood alert from Friday night into Saturday night.  That means that flash flooding is possible.

Heavy rain is likely to impact the region by Friday night and Saturday.  Another flood or flash flood watch may need to be issued.  Rain totals of one to three inches will likely occur Friday night into Saturday evening.  Obviously, we do not need this rain.

Thunderstorms could enhance rain totals and would also make flash flooding more likely.

Check out this temperature animation.

Watch the surge of warm air ahead of the cold front.  Low pressure rotates counter-clockwise.  A low to our west/northwest would pull warm air northward.  That is what will happen this weekend.

 

 

Here is the dew point map.

The same.  The low will pull moisture rapidly northward from the Gulf of Mexico.  It will move up the Mississippi River Delta.

Dew point is a measure of moisture.  We look for 58 degrees and above during the winter months when considering severe weather forecasting.

The forecast is for dew points to be in the 60’s.  Plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.

 

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There are numerous parameters coming together for the risk of severe weather on Saturday.  It is still too early to get caught up in the finer details.  It is also a bit premature to forecast severe weather.

For now, I am monitoring the situation.  If you have plans on Saturday then you should monitor updates.

Dry weather returns by Sunday.

 

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Model Future-cast Radars

Here is the future-cast radar. You can see today’s showers develop from south to north.  This also takes us into early Saturday afternoon.

 

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Here is another view of the system that arrives Friday into Saturday.

The low rapidly deepens as it moves out of Kansas into the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes.  A classic blizzard/winter storm for some.  Storms for others.

Click to enlarge.

Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavy snow.  Pink would be a wintry mix.  Green is rain.  Dark green, yellow, and orange would be rain to heavy rain.

 

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Strong and gusty winds will accompany the weekend storm.

The strongest winds (outside of storms) will be Saturday and Saturday night.  Strong and gusty winds because of the tight pressure gradient.

Super-saturated ground conditions could mean that trees will topple if winds become strong and gusty.

 

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Current conditions.

 

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

 

 

Satellite

Today’s image is the IR satellite.

You can see the moisture moving our way from the southwest.  This extends well back into the Pacific Ocean.

This feature has been there for days.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

 

The Ohio Valley video