Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology. Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage. Visit them on their website and on Facebook. You can also find them on Twitter. They are located in Almo, Kentucky. Phone 270-718-0245
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers becoming likely. A thunderstorm possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered becoming numerous late
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor radars. Rain showers are possible as we move further into Monday night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~525to 60
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible overnight.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:25 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 21, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Good chance for showers. Small chance for lightning.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph become variable at 3 to 6 mph during the afternoon.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:41 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 1
Moonrise will be at 2:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:12 p.m. Waning Crescent
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. Isolated showers. Drizzle possible. Dense fog possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways possible. Low visibilities in areas with fog.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~52 to 56
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:12 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 22, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning dense fog possible. Partly sunny. Mild. An isolated shower possible. Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibilities in fog during the morning hours. Isolated wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor dense fog during the first half of the day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 75 IL ~ 68 to 75 KY ~ 68 to 75 TN ~ 68 to 75
Winds: South 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:42 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 3
Moonrise will be at 3:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:03 p.m. Waning Crescent
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. An isolated shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Spotty wet roadways possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 3:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:03 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 23, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Patchy sun. Mild. Well above normal temperatures. An isolated shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 76 IL ~ 68 to 76 KY ~ 68 to 76 TN ~ 68 to 76
Winds: South and southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:31 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:43 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 2
Moonrise will be at 4:28 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:59 p.m. Waning Crescent
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A 30% chance for a shower. Mild.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps a few wet roadways. Small risk for lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph possible.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 4:28 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:59 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 24, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Turning colder through the day. Temperatures falling into the 40’s and 50’s during the afternoon (from west to east).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few strong storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates moving forward
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward IL ~ 68 to 74 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward KY ~ 68 to 74 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward TN ~68 to 74 with falling temperatures as a cold front sweeps eastward
Winds: South and southwest 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts. Winds becoming west and northwest through the day as a cold front passes across the region.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:30 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:44 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 2
Moonrise will be at 5:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 p.m. Waning Crescent
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Best chances over the eastern half of the region.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Will need to monitor whether severe weather is a concern for our eastern counties of the region.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered and ending from west to east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~36 to 42 KY ~ 36 to 42 TN ~ 36 to 42
Winds: Becoming north and northwest at 8 to 16+ mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 30 to 36
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? Unlikely
Moonrise will be at 5:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 25, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny and cooler.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable: 40 to 45
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:45 p.m.
UV Index: 2 to 4
Moonrise will be at 5:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:00 p.m. Waning Crescent
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some lower visibility if fog forms.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~28 to 34 KY ~ 28 to 34 TN ~ 28 to 34
Winds: North and northwest at 0 to 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 25 to 30
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 5:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:00 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 26, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Perhaps a late afternoon shower. Low confidence.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds:
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?
Sunrise will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:48 p.m.
UV Index:
Moonrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:03 p.m. New Moon
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible. Chilly. Small chance for a rain/snow mix over southeast Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 28 to 34 TN ~ 28 to 34
Winds:
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?
Moonrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:03 p.m. New Moon
More information on the UV index. Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Analysis
Monday night
Confidence: Medium
Our crazy weather continues. Check out the temperatures from 1 pm on Monday afternoon. Unreal.
Rain showers will spread into the region on Monday night. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Severe weather is not going to be a concern with this particular event.
Rainfall totals of 0.05″ to 0.25″ will be possible. A few spots could pick up a bit more than that.
Temperatures will remain mild. Well above normal temperatures. Lows will dip into the middle to upper 50’s by Tuesday morning.
Tuesday through Wednesday
Confidence: Medium
Shower chances will continue on Tuesday. A small risk for lightning. Severe weather is not a concern.
Shower coverage should diminish on Tuesday night and Wednesday. I suspect there will be a few showers on radar Tuesday night and Wednesday. With time, rain chances will diminish.
Mild temperatures. Clouds will likely keep us from reaching maximum temperature potential. Either way, upper 60’s to middle 70’s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. Well above normal temperatures. Spring air.
1 am Tuesday. Future-cast radar
5 am future-cast radar (Tuesday)
9 am Tuesday future-cast radar
2 pm Tuesday future-cast radar
7 pm future-cast radar. Tuesday evening. Scattered/spotty showers.
Thursday into the weekend
Confidence: Low to medium
Our next storm system will approach the region as early as Thursday night, but more likely on Friday and Friday night. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase along a strong cold front. I suspect the best chances for precipitation will be over the eastern half of the region on Friday/Friday night.
There will be some instability to work with on Friday. The main question remains placement. How far west will thunderstorms develop. A lot of guidance keeps much of our region dry. Especially the western half of the area.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms might end up over southeast Illinois and portions of western Kentucky.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of our region for severe thunderstorms. This remains HIGHLY dependent on placement of the key features of this system. That includes the track of the area of low pressure.
The NAM guidance keeps the low fairly far south. It shows the low passing through southwest Missouri into central Missouri. Other guidance keeps the low closer to Kansas City into Iowa.
Moisture return won’t be all that impressive with this system. I would be more concerned if we had better moisture recovery. As it stands, that appears unlikely.
The bottom line is that there will be at least a chance for some showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night and more likely on Friday/Friday night. Some storms could be on the strong side, but confidence on this part of the forecast is low.
Let’s look at this system on the GFS model guidance
This is the GFS guidance map for Friday 12 pm. You can see the deep low to our north and west. Heavy snow to the north and northwest of the lows path. Showers and storms to the south and east.
Here is the 6 pm Friday map. Low passing to our north. A band of scattered showers and storms in our region.
Blizzard over parts of Minnesota and Iowa? At least heavy snow and strong winds.
Here is the 12 am Saturday map. Scattered showers and storms moving east of our region. Highly questionable coverage for my forecast counties. Monitor updates.
We cool down behind the cold front on Saturday and Sunday
Saturday temperatures on the GFS. Mostly 40’s for high temps.
High temps on Sunday. Perhaps a few degrees warmer.
Additional rain chances are possible early next week.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday. On and off spotty shower chances will linger into Tuesday night and perhaps Wednesday. A thunderstorm is also possible.
Another chance for rain arrives Thursday night/Friday and Friday night. Still some questions remain on placement of precipitation for that particular event.
Another chance for showers and storms next Monday/Tuesday.
Active pattern.
Here is the official NOAA rainfall predictions
This first image is for Monday night through Wednesday
Click to enlarge these images
This next graphic (below) is for the Thursday night into Friday night event.
Notice how the precipitation is more east than west? Odds favor this system producing storms over the eastern half of the region. How far west remains a question.
If thunderstorm do form, then they could produce much heavier totals in a few spots.
Finally, here is the system for early next week. You can see the rain moving in from the west. NOAA does not go out past 6 am Monday morning. Rain would spread further east on Monday/Tuesday.
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Tuesday low temperature forecast
Tuesday afternoon high temperature forecast
Wednesday low temperature forecast
Wednesday high temperature forecast
Perhaps a few lightning strokes on Monday night and Tuesday.
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Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday night through Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is possible on Monday night.
Thursday night into Saturday: Increasing chances for storms on Thursday night and Friday/Friday night. Some strong storms are a possibility. Monitor updated forecasts.
There remain some questions as to how far west the thunderstorm threat will be. Most of the data suggests the eastern half of our region stands a better chance for storms. Thus, monitor fresh updates over the coming days.
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined portions of the Ohio Valley for severe weather on Friday. We have several days to monitor this event. For now, let’s just monitor trends.
The yellow area is where the SPC is currently concerned. This will change several times between now and Friday.
Click image to enlarge.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
