Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology. Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage. Visit them on their website and on Facebook. You can also find them on Twitter. They are located in Almo, Kentucky. Phone 270-718-0245
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next). The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The APP allows instant delivery. You can keep your test messages on and use the APP. You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.
We are working on the Android APP. Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.
The APP is for subscribers.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
February 19, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Areas of dense fog possible. Mild temperatures. Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility where fog occurs
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~48 to 54
Winds: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 1:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:44 a.m. Waning Crescent
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February 20, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Some morning fog possible. Partly sunny. Becoming cloudy. A slight chance for an afternoon shower over southeast Missouri. Warm. Spring like. Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Areas of fog possible during the morning.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:40 p.m.
UV Index: 2 to 4
Moonrise will be at 2:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:25 p.m. Waning Gibbous
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. A thunderstorm possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Rain will spread into the region on Monday night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 60 TN ~55 to 60
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 24 mph possible.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:25 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 21, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance for a few showers.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Southwest winds becoming north and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:41 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 1
Moonrise will be at 2:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:12 p.m. Waning Crescent
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~48 to 54
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:12 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 22, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild. An isolated shower possible. WELL above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:42 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 3
Moonrise will be at 3:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:03 p.m. Waning Crescent
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 3:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:03 p.m. Waning Crescent
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February 23, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild. WELL above normal temperatures. An isolated shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:31 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:43 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 3
Moonrise will be at 4:28 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:59 p.m. Waning Crescent
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 4:28 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:59 p.m. Waning Crescent
More information on the UV index. Click here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Analysis
Sunday night
Confidence: High
Some clouds and fog possible for your Sunday night. If fog does develop then it could be dense. Use care. We will remain rain free through Sunday night. Mild temperatures. Well above normal temperatures.
Monday
Confidence: Medium
Increasing clouds on Monday. We should cloud over during the day. Temperatures will be WELL above normal. Get used to the above normal temperatures, because they will be with us all week.
A few spotty showers might develop late Monday afternoon over southeast Missouri. Nothing significant.
Check out the temperature anomalies for Monday. Way above normal.
Monday night through Wednesday
Confidence: Medium
Clouds will be with us Monday night into Tuesday night. Clouds may continue into Wednesday.
Scattered showers are possible through the period. The best chance for showers will likely be Monday night and Tuesday. I will cap chances around 40% ~ 50%. Rainfall totals won’t be particularly heavy. Expect totals to be less than 0.20″.
Some areas may remain dry. Keep that in mind.
Severe weather is not anticipated through Wednesday night.
Future-cast radar
This is for Monday at 7 pm. Some scattered showers are possible.
This next image is for 4 am on Tuesday. Again, some scattered showers in the area.
Tuesday temperature anomalies
How many degrees above normal will temperatures be
Wednesday temperature anomalies
How many degrees above normal will temperatures be
Thursday into the weekend
Confidence: Low to medium
A strong storm system will approach our region on Thursday night into Friday night. There remain some questions on the exact timing of the cold front and higher storm chances.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will likely form along the cold front. There is some disagreement in guidance as to where the best rain chances will be placed. Perhaps higher storm chances over the eastern half of the region. Monitor updates.
Data indicates dew points rising into the lower to middle 60’s. Strong wind fields aloft. Temperatures in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. CAPE values will rise above 500. All of this equals the risk for some stronger thunderstorms. Severe weather is a possibility in the Ohio Valley.
Let’s keep an eye on it.
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined portions of the Ohio Valley for a risk of severe weather. This event is still several days away. I suspect this outline will change several times between now and Friday.
The GFS ensembles are showing our region well entrenched in the warm sector of this system.
Click images to enlarge
This graphic shows the deep area of low pressure passing to our north. That means showers and storms in our region. Cold air will rush in behind the cold front. Small risk for snow flurries Friday night/Saturday morning.
Thunderstorms are the main concern with this event.
This next image shows CAPE. These are ensemble members. CAPE is energy available for thunderstorms. You can see the ensembles show CAPE over our region. It does not take much CAPE, during the winter months, to raise concerns for strong thunderstorms.
Another view of CAPE for the Friday system
Models are showing another system around next Monday or Tuesday.
Models show a busy storm pattern into March. Severe weather will be a concern.
Here is the ensemble maps for next Monday and Tuesday. Another deep low passing to our north.
Plenty to monitor over the next four weeks. Let’s hope this is not going to be the spring pattern.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
There is a 20% for some showers late Monday afternoon over southeast Missouri.
Some showers are possible area-wide Monday night and Tuesday. Some of the guidance continues spotty showers into Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday night.
There is lower than normal confidence on how Thursday night into Friday night plays out. It might be that the eastern half of the region has the higher rain chances. This will need to be monitored. The system is several days away. Thus, we have plenty of time to monitor trends.
Here is the rainfall forecast through Wednesday. Light totals.
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High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Monday low temperature forecast
Monday afternoon high temperature forecast
Tuesday low temperature forecast
Tuesday high temperature forecast
Some dense fog possible Sunday night and Monday morning.
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Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night through Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday night into Saturday: Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates. Some strong storms possible in or near the region.
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined portions of the Ohio Valley for severe weather on Friday. We have several days to monitor this event. For now, let’s just monitor trends.
The yellow area is where the SPC is currently concerned. This will change several times between now and Friday.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
