Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

3 PM Update

Key message and changes:

1.  Winter weather advisory for a couple of my northwest counties.
2.  Flash flood watch for portions of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
3.   Avoid flooded roadways.

A flash flood watch has been issued in the bright green for Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon.  Dark green is a flood watch.

 

Here is the seven-day rainfall outlook.  Discouraging numbers.  The river flooding will worsen.  More concerning could be the long term implications of all of this.  Literally the entire northern part and central part of the US has received above normal precipitation since the beginning of the year.  Add in snowmelt this spring and you have a lot of problems.

Monitor river flood stages over the coming days.  The river will be rising.

 

The WPC has outlined our region for a slight, marginal and moderate risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Red is the highest risk zone.

 

A winter weather advisory has been issued from 3 PM Tuesday through 8 AM Wednesday morning.  Wet snow is likely to develop in the purple zone.  Perhaps a dusting to two inches.

There will likely be snow well to the south and east of this, as well.  The accumulation totals will mainly be on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Monitor updates.

 

Here is the county breakdown of the snow potential.

For now, if your county is not included then that means the chances of more than an inch of snow are low.  I will monitor trends and update accordingly.

 

 

 

Here is the NAM future-cast radar.  Timestamp upper left.  Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  The models are having a hard timing with timing this event and precipitation type.

Monitor updates.

 

 

Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

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   3. Go to the weather forecast discussion
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

I am posting these by request.

My regular text forecast can be found below these.

A quick look at the seven-day forecast.  My text forecast below these graphics may vary a bit.

 

I made the blog free today.  I wanted everyone to see the changes.  If you would like to subscribe then please go to www.weathertalk.com and then follow the setup process.

 

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

 

 

Today:  No.

Tomorrow:  Yes.    Wet snow or a wintry mix is likely to develop Tuesday afternoon.  The greatest chance of impacts will be from Bollinger County, Missouri into Cape Girardeau, County Missouri and then into Jackson, Williamson, Franklin, Hamilton, and White counties in southern Illinois.  From there north and northwest is the concern.  South of that line, the window of opportunity for accumulating snow is smaller.  Monitor updates, as always.

In addition to the above, locally heavy rain across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and western Tennessee could cause flooding.  The main concern will be Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  Some flooding will be possible.

* What is a weather alert day?  It is a day when flooding, severe weather, or wintry precipitation may impact your day.

 

1.  A wet week ahead of us.
2.  Monitoring temperatures Tuesday afternoon and evening as precipitation arrives.  Some wet snow and wintry mix are possible.
3.  Locally heavy rain is likely Tuesday night.
4.  An active pattern over the coming weeks.

 

Confidence rating explained.

• High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
• Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
• Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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The short-range forecast.  Days one through three.

Is snow or ice in the forecast?  Yes.   A few flurries today.   Also, the region should experience a wintry mix or wet snow changing to rain at the beginning of our Tuesday afternoon/night event.

Accumulating wet snow, however, is most likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening across the northern half of the region.

The best chance of some of the snow accumulating will be from Bollinger County, Missouri east and northeast into the Carbondale/Marion, Illinois area and the northeast from there towards Carmi, Illinois.  Some wet accumulation is likely.  At this time it appears to be a dusting to up to two inches.  Perhaps a bit more as you move towards St. Genevieve County, Missouri towards Jefferson County, Illinois.

Elsewhere, snow accumulation chances dwindle the further south you travel.  Monitor updates, as always.  If adjustments are necessary then I will post those updated forecast numbers.

 

Is lightning in the forecast?  Possible.  Lightning is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Lightning is possible Saturday into Sunday, as well.

 

Is severe weather in the forecast?  No
*  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

 

Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Yes. Flooding is possible Tuesday night.  The ground is saturated.  One to two+ inches of rain is possible over portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee.

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

 

 

February 18, 2019
Monday’s Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A few flurries in southwest Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  We may see the clouds attempt to break up from time to time.  Cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  38° to 42°     SE MO  35° to 40°     South IL  35° to 40°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  34° to 38°    West KY  35° to 40°     NW TN  38° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest becoming north at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%     MO  0%     IL   20%     NW KY 30%     KY  0%     TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  A few flurries.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.  A few locations may have flurries.  That could wet the road briefly.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   6:45 AM

 

Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  26° to 30°     SE MO  23° to 26°     South IL  23° to 26°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  23° to 26°    West KY  26° to 30°     NW TN  28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed:  Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 25°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:34 PM
Moonrise:   12:25 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:   2:05 AM

 

February 19, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Rain and snow developing.  The best chance of precipitation will arrive after 12 PM.  It will spread south to north.

The very beginning of the event would produce a wintry mix or snow changing to rain at just about any location in the region.

Accumulating wet snow is more likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening across the northern half of the region.  The best chance of some of the snow accumulating will be from Bollinger County, Missouri east and northeast into the Carbondale/Marion, Illinois area and the northeast from there towards Carmi, Illinois.  Some wet accumulation is likely.  At this time it appears to be a dusting to up to two inches.

Perhaps a bit more as you move towards St. Genevieve County, Missouri towards Jefferson County, Illinois.

Temperatures will fall as the snow develops.  We call this wet bulbing.  Precipitation helps drag down colder air.  The evaporation process also helps cool the atmosphere.  Monitor updates tonight and tomorrow.  I will fine-tune the forecast numbers.  Sometimes these wet snow events can surprise forecasters with higher snow totals.

My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  40° to 44°     SE MO  35° to 40°     South IL  36° to 42°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  38° to 40°    West KY  40° to 42°     NW TN  40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph during the morning increasing to 10 to 20 during the afternoon
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  28° to 38°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   The chances of precipitation are centered on the afternoon hours.  MO Bootheel  80%     MO  70%     IL   70%     NW KY 70%     KY  70%     TN  70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None during the morning.  Becoming numerous during the afternoon and evening hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Snow covered roads are possible in the heavier snow bands (northern half of the region).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B during the afternoon and evening hours.
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   6:45 AM

 

Tuesday night Forecast:  Snow continuing over our far northern counties.  Snow changing to rain as the nigh wears on.  Elsewhere, a widespread rain event.  A thunderstorm is possible.  Rain may be moderate to heavy at times.  The heaviest rain should be across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennesse.  Temperatures steady or slowly rising.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  38° to 44°     SE MO  36° to 40°     South IL  36° to 40°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  38° to 40°    West KY  38° to 42°     NW TN  40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  90%      MO   90%      IL   90%      KY  90%       TN   90%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Evening snow covered roads over the northern half of the region are possible.  The further north you travel towards Mt Vernon, Illinois the greater chance of some problems.  Wet roadways.  Flooding is possible in areas that receive the heaviest rain totals.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
Sunset:   5:34 PM
Moonrise:   12:25 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:   2:05 AM

 

February 20, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast:  Cloudy.  Scattered rain showers.  A thunderstorm is possible.  Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  58° to 62°     SE MO  48° to 52°     South IL  46° to 52°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  53° to 56°    West KY  54° to 58°     NW TN  56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast becoming southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  48° to 58°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  40%     MO  40%     IL   50%     NW KY 60%     KY  50%     TN  50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Possible some flooding during the AM hours because of Tuesday night rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates and radars.  Some showers are possible.
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   6:45 AM

 

Wednesday night Forecast:  Cloudy with rain showers ending.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  34° to 36°     SE MO  28° to 32°     South IL  26° to 30°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  28° to 30°    West KY  34° to 38°     NW TN  34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 32°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  10%      MO   10%      IL   20%      KY  30%       TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered.  Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.
Sunset:   5:34 PM
Moonrise:   12:25 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:   2:05 AM

 

The long-range forecast.  Days four through seven.

• Is snow or ice in the forecast?  Not at this time.
• Is lightning in the forecast?  I am monitoring Saturday.
• Is severe weather in the forecast?  I am monitoring Saturday.  I can’t rule out strong thunderstorms.  Monitor updates.
  *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
• Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Monitor Saturday and Sunday as yet another system could deliver rain to the region.

 

Thursday:  Showers possible.  Highs in the 40’s.

Friday:  Partly cloudy and milder.  Highs in the 50’s.  Rain developing Friday night.

Saturday:  Thunderstorms are possible.  Mild.  Highs in the 60’s.

Sunday:  Rain showers.  A thunderstorm is possible.  Highs in the 40’s.

 

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

The wind speed and direction forecast

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today and tomorrow:  No severe weather concerns.

Wednesday through Sunday:  I am closely monitoring Saturday.  Thunderstorms are possible.

 

 

Tuesday through Sunday:  Snow is likely over portions of the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday mid-evening.  A large rain event is developing.  Temperatures will be cold enough for a wintry mix or snow at the leading edge of the system.  Non-accumulating snow could occur in just about any given area of the region.  The best chance of accumulating snow will be over our northern counties.  The northern half of southeast Missouri.  The northern half of southern Illinois.  Chances decrease as you travel south.  Monitor updates.  Otherwise, no snow or ice anticipated.

.

Beau’s exclusive eight-day winter weather outlook

The highest probability on days 5, 6, 7, and 8 will be twenty-percent.

Keep in mind, this includes sleet and freezing rain.

 

 

Here is the county breakdown of the snow potential.

For now, if your county is not included then that means the chances of more than an inch of snow are low.  I will monitor trends and update accordingly.

 

 

 

 

Here is the WPC/NOAA’s freezing rain prediction.

You can see they center the best chance of 0.10″ or more of freezing rain more to our west and north.

 

 

 

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I added accumulating snow for portions of the region Tuesday afternoon and evening.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Monitor road conditions Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Some wet snow will likely occur.  The best chance of accumulating snow will be across my northern forecast counties.

Locally heavy rain is possible on Tuesday night.  The ground is soaked.  There are some concerns about flooding.  Monitor any watches or warnings.  The heaviest rain axis will extend from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.

Widespread river flooding continues across the region.

As always, avoid flooded roadways.

 

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Forecast discussion.

Here is a recap of the Friday winter storm.  Many of you reported snow and ice.  There were even a few trees downed from the weight of the ice.,

All in all the forecast behaved fairly well.  There are always some over and under totals in these events.

Here are some of the confirmed reports.  Thank you for all of your reports.  I relayed them to the NWS.

Snow

Ice

Other totals

 

Our active weather pattern is going to continue into the new workweek.

One system after another is showing up in the charts over the coming ten days.  Same as the past ten days.

A relentless barrage of heavy rain events has plagued the Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys.  The region has experienced well above normal rainfall totals since the beginning of the year.

Precipitation will redevelop Tuesday afternoon and night.

The precipitation will spread northward from Arkansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi.

It may be cold enough at the beginning of the system for some wet snow or a wintry mix.  That will quickly turn to all rain as southerly winds increase and push warmer air northward.

Temperatures Tuesday night should rise through the night.

Wednesday will be mild ahead of the cold front.

This event will deliver another widespread 0.50″ to 1.00″.  There will then be bands of 1.00″ to 2.00″+.  At this time, it appears the heaviest rain will fall across the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

Flooding is possible.

The WPC has already placed our region in a marginal, slight, and moderate risk of excessive rainfall.  What does that mean?  It simply means that some areas may experience flooding.  The greatest concern will be Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

 

Here is the year to date rain totals.  This is what has already fallen.  A large area the country has been extremely wet.  Some areas are 300%+ above normal in the rainfall department.

 

 

 

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Model Future-cast Radars

The high-resolution NAM-3K model guidance future-cast radar.  You can see the arrival of the precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The NAM wants to begin the event as a wintry mix.  This seems plausible, at this time.  It should be just cold enough for the precipitation to begin as a mix.  The accumulating snow, however, should be confined to the northern half of the region.

Timestamp upper left.

 

The NAM3K model shows this much rainfall through early Wednesday morning.

You can see the path of that heavier band of rain across our southern and southeastern counties.

 

I wanted to show you the Hrrr model guidance, as well.  Big timing differences.  The Hrrr does not bring precipitation into the region until the evening hours.  The 3K NAM is during the afternoon hours.  I will monitor the timing of the event.

The Hrrr is currently the outlier.  IT may be too slow in moving precipitation northward.  Again, I will be monitoring trends in the data.

 

 

The GFS shows this much rain through Wednesday evening.

 

River flooding will be aggravated by this rain event.  If nothing else, it means the rivers are going to stay high for a longer period of time.

The rain will come to an end on Wednesday afternoon and night.

Another rainmaker will push into the region Thursday.  This will be a fast moving weak system.

Yet another system arrives Friday into Sunday.  This system may produce some thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain is again possible with this event.

 

Here is the GFS model future-cast radar.  This captions the late week event, as well.

Woosh.  That is a lot of weather to cover over the coming week.

Current conditions.

 

Forty-eight hour temperature outlook.

 

 

 

 

Satellite

Today’s image is the IR satellite.

You can see the moisture moving our way from the southwest.  This extends well back into the Pacific Ocean.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

 

The Ohio Valley video

 

 

Long-range video.