Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 16th and 17th: Warm weather ahead.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
2015-03-27_21-14-30

Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

.
2015-10-08_17-58-26
.

Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.

You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


BANNER OPTION 2

Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.

 

The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology.  Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage.  Visit them on their website and on Facebook.  You can also find them on Twitter.  They are located in Almo, Kentucky.  Phone 270-718-0245

.———————————————–

The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next).  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do.  Your support helps with all of this

and

bottomlineitgif

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

.

February 16, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Breezy, early in the evening.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 38 to 44   IL ~ 36 to 44   KY ~ 36 to 44   TN ~36 to 44
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.  Winds becoming south/southwest at 5 to 10 mph late.
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 11:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:56 a.m. Waning Gibbous

.

February 17, 2017
Friday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Sunny and warm.  Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70   IL ~  65 to 70   KY ~ 65 to 70   TN ~ 65 to 70   
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:39  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:37 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 10:29 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some increase in clouds.  Breezy, early.  A light shower possible after midnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways late
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: None early.  Perhaps spotty late
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50  IL ~ 45 to 50   KY ~ 46 to 50   TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds:  South and southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph early.
Wind Chill when applicable
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 10:29 a.m. Waning Gibbous

.

February 18, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  A few scattered showers possible. Mild.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps spotty wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64   IL ~  58 to 64   KY ~ 58 to 64    TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:38  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:38 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2
Moonrise 
will be at 12:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:05 a.m. Last Quarter

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some clouds. An isolated shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps spotty wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but perhaps check radars
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50  IL ~ 45 to 50    KY ~ 45 to 50    TN ~45 to 50
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 12:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:05 a.m. Last Quarter

.

February 19, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Sunny.  Warm.  Spring.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 74  IL ~  66 to 72   KY ~ 68 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:36  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:39 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 1:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:44 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear to partly cloudy.  Mild
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54   IL ~48 to 54   KY ~ 48 to 54   TN ~48 to 54
Winds:  South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 1:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:44 a.m. Waning Gibbous

.

February 20, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm.  Spring.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75   IL ~  68 to 75  KY ~ 68 to 75   TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:35  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:40 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 2:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:25 p.m. Waning Gibbous

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some increase in clouds.  Mild.  Will monitor shower chances.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Will monitor shower chances.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~50 to 55   KY ~ 50 to 55   TN ~50 to 55
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:25 p.m. Waning Gibbous

.

February 21, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Some clouds.  A chance for showers.  Low confidence.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75   IL ~  68 to 75  KY ~ 68 to 75   TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:34  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:41 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 1
Moonrise 
will be at 2:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:12 p.m. Waning Gibbous

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy. A chance for a shower.  Low confidence.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~50 to 55   KY ~ 50 to 55   TN ~50 to 55
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:12 p.m. Waning Gibbous

.

February 22, 2017
Wednesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75   IL ~  68 to 75  KY ~ 68 to 75   TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:33  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:42 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 1
Moonrise 
will be at 3:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:03 p.m. Waning Gibbous

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy..
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~50 to 55   KY ~ 50 to 55   TN ~50 to 55
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 3:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:03 p.m. Waning Gibbous

.

More information on the UV index.  Click here

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.



 

2015-03-20_19-08-11
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Analysis

Thursday night into Friday
Confidence: High

Calm weather with no significant issues.   Well above normal temperatures.

Friday night
Confidence: Medium

Clouds will increase on Friday night.  A system will pass to our south.  There is a chance for a few spotty showers.  The best chance will be over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.  Even there the chances will be capped at around 20% to 30%.

Rainfall totals, if any, will be light.

No severe weather.

Saturday
Confidence: Medium

A weather system will pass through the region on Saturday with scattered showers and quite a few clouds.  There is some disagreement in the model guidance as to how widespread the rain will or won’t be.

Plan on some showers, but not a rainout.  I will keep an eye on guidance trends.

Rainfall totals on Saturday will range from 0.00″ to 0.25″.   GFS has a few spots receiving more than that.  All the other guidance keeps totals on the light side.  Best chances for rain should be over the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.

Clouds will keep temperatures from rising as much as they would have.  Without clouds we would be looking at widespread upper 60’s to middle 70’s.  Clouds, however, will likely keep us mostly in the 50’s to lower 60’s.  These temperatures are highly dependent on the cloud cover verifying.  Keep that in mind.

Rainfall totals per the NAM and GFS guidance.  Some differences, as you can see.

This is the high resolution NAM guidance.  Not much.

And, this next image is the GFS.  GFS shows more rain than the NAM.  I will monitor trends.  Most of the guidance is in disagreement with the GFS.  In other words, most of the guidance shows the lighter totals verifying.

Here is the official NOAA forecast for rainfall totals. You can see, per the graphic below, that they show most of the measureable rainfall to our south and east.

Another chance of showers around Tuesday or Wednesday.   Above normal temperatures through much of next week.

I am watching February 23rd through February 25th.  Perhaps another cold front with showers and storms.

Meteorological spring begins in thirteen days!

.

.2016-11-19_11-50-24
Find me on Twitter
 .

rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

No rain through Friday night.

A chance for a few spotty showers on Saturday.  Rain totals, if any, will be light.

 

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Friday low temperature forecast

Friday afternoon high temperature forecast

Saturday low temperature forecast

Saturday high temperature forecast

Saturday’s high temperatures are highly dependent on cloud cover.  Keep that in mind.


 .

whatamiconcered

No major concerns.
.

2014-11-24_13-38-04

Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thursday night through Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Next Friday into next Sunday:  Monitor updates.  Guidance shows thunderstorms are possible.  Some of the guidance indicates heavy storms over portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley’s.  Plenty of time to monitor.

.

2014-11-03_7-32-16
.
No significant changes.
.
 12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

2015-05-28_13-49-52

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

..

2014-12-21_20-26-42

The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *