Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
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Looking for some tasty holiday treats? Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need. Located in Benton, Kentucky. They even deliver!
**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL **** $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box! 18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box! Valentine’s Day enclosure card! Free delivery in Marshall County! Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield! Payment is required at time of order. To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call. Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks. 270-205-2552 tracyd@dcelectricinc.com
I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years. I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious. Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order. Birthdays, holidays, or just because! Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here
The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology. Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage. Visit them on their website and on Facebook. You can also find them on Twitter. They are located in Almo, Kentucky. Phone 270-718-0245
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next). The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The APP allows instant delivery. You can keep your test messages on and use the APP. You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.
We are working on the Android APP. Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.
The APP is for subscribers.
The direct download can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do. Your support helps with all of this
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A few showers possible late tonight. Cool. Isolated ice pellets possible with no impact.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Spotty wet roadways possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 40 IL ~ 31 to 38 KY ~ 31 to 38 TN ~36 to 42
Winds: Variable winds at 0 to 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? Nothing of significance
Moonrise will be at 8:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:19 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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February 14, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Valentine’s Day
Low confidence on how far north the rain might spread.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain over southern Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and Tennessee. Lesser chances northward. Sleet pellets possible. Some sun is a possibility out side of the rain zone. Northern parts of southeast Missouri, northern parts of southern Illinois, northwest Kentucky ~ perhaps some partial sunshine.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways possible over our southern counties in the region
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% (mainly south) IL ~ 30% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps have an alternative plan in mind for our southern counties.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 46 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54 (milder for areas away from the rain)
Winds: Southwest and west at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? Sleet pellets possible.
Sunrise will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:34 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 1
Moonrise will be at 9:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:52 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clouds southern half of the region and partly cloudy north. Cloudier over the Missouri Bootheel, southern Missouri, and Tennessee. Into western Kentucky, as well. Spotty showers possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% (mainly south/Bootheel) IL ~ 20% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars (esp southern half of the region)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 34 to 38 TN ~35 to 40
Winds: West and southwest winds at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 9:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:52 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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February 15 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Becoming sunny. A little cooler. Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: North at 10 to 20 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:35 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 3
Moonrise will be at 10:24 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:24 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cool
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 26 to 32 IL ~ 26 to 30 KY ~ 26 to 32 TN ~26 to 32
Winds: North and northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: 22 to 26
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 10:24 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:24 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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More information on the UV index. Click here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Analysis
Monday night
Confidence: High
Clouds will continue to increase on Monday night. Cool temperatures, but above normal. Lows will dip into the 30’s.
Clouds will thicken late tonight and a few sprinkles are possible. There is a lot of dry air at the lower levels of the atmosphere. This will likely take awhile to moisten up. Radar might even show rain, but it would be evaporating before reaching the ground. This is because of the dry layer of air.
Late tonight a few showers are possible over southern Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, and then east into western Kentucky and Tennessee.
Better rain chances arrive on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Tuesday and Tuesday night
Confidence: Low to medium
A system will pass through our region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some rain is certainly possible. The best rain chances still look to be over southern Missouri and then into parts of western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
There is quite a bit of disagreement about how far north to push the rain. I have rain chances in the 20% to 40% range. This might need adjusting if it appears the system trends even further north.
I am not overly confident on just how far north precipitation will spread.
The trend over the last 48 hours is to push the system a few counties further north. We will see if this actually happens. The end result will be light rain or rain showers across portions of the region.
Rainfall totals will range from none at all to perhaps as much as 0.20″/0.30″.
Rain chances will diminish late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
At this time, it appears Wednesday into Friday will be dry.
Another system will need to be monitored for Saturday and Sunday. If we can avoid that system, then a nice weekend will be on tap for the region.
Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday may jump into the 60’s. This will need to be monitored, however, because of the system to our south. Some of the guidance wants to bring that system further north.
Let’s take a look at some weather maps
Again, there is quite a bit of debate about Tuesday’s weather. Any shift of this system will change the forecast.
6 am Tuesday. This is the NAM model guidance. Future-cast radar. It has some showers in the area.
This is likely overdone. Keep that in mind. There is also a lot of dry air to overcome.
12 pm Tuesday
6 pm Tuesday NAM guidance
Here is the 6 am Tuesday GFS model guidance future-cast radar
12 pm Tuesday GFS future-cast radar
The bottom line, some showers possible on Tuesday.
Portions of the region are quite dry.
The yellow zone represents abnormally dry areas
Another chart
This chart is from January 1st through current. Precipitation anomaly’s. The Missouri Valley is dry.
This map is the 90 day SPI index. All of these charts show dryness across much of the Missouri Valley. We will need to monitor this over the coming months. Hopefully we are not setting ourselves up for drought. I don’t like to enter spring with dry conditions.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Rain showers are possible late Monday night and Tuesday/Tuesday night. This is mainly over the southern half of the region. The best chance for rain will be across southern Missouri into the Missouri Bootheel and then into western Kentucky and Tennessee. The further north you travel, the less likely for measurable rainfall.
There is a wide range of ideas for rainfall totals. Let’s take a look at five of them.
The official WPC map shows rain fairly far south. There might be some rain totals a bit further north, as well. Keep that in mind.
I will show you some different options for rain totals.
This first map is the NOAA map. Scale is on the right.
This next map is the high resolution NAM guidance. It shows heavier rain totals further north than the NOAA map.
The NAM and GFS models are slightly further north than NOAA.
The trend in the guidance is further north.
And, here is the GFS model guidance rainfall totals
Finally, let’s look at the EC guidance
Here is the Canadian model guidance, for good measure
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Tuesday low temperature forecast
Tuesday afternoon high temperature forecast
Wednesday low temperature forecast
Wednesday high temperature forecast
No major concerns.
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Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
