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December 5, 2018
Wednesday forecast:   A morning flurry.   Morning clouds will exit as the day wears on.  Clearing first over southeast Missouri and then slowly spreading east.   Cold.  Below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 40 to 45      IL ~ 38 to 44       KY ~ 38 to 44       TN ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? A morning flurry possible.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Most areas will be fine.  A few spotty slick spots possible.
Wind direction and speed:  W to SW and then S SW 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Other than a few spotty slick spots, none.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 4 Medium
Sunrise: 6:54 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly to mostly clear the first half of the night.  Some increase in clouds late over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.  Cold.  Below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (70% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 28 to 32      IL ~ 28 to 32       KY ~ 28 to 32       TN ~ 28 to 32
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise:  5:00 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  3:52 PM

 

December 6, 2018
Thursday forecast:   Cloudy. A chance of rain and snow showers.  Cold.  Below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 38 to 44      IL ~38 to 42       KY ~ 40 to 44       TN ~ 40 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 50%     IL ~ 50%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered.   A band of precipitation should move W NW to E SE
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Yes, some snow showers will be possible.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Unlikely
Wind direction and speed:  S and SW becoming SW to W at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Some rain and snow showers likely.  Could mean wet conditions from time to time.  This could interfere with outdoor events.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:55 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy early.  Any remaining rain or snow showers will end.  Turning colder.  Below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High (70% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 18 to 24      IL ~ 18 to 24        KY ~ 24 to 28       TN ~  26 to 32
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 10 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  (EARLY)  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered early
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  Unlikely, but monitor moisture levels on roadways as the precip ends and colder air arrives.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? A few flakes in the air can’t be ruled out as a weak system passes through the region. 
Are icy road conditions anticipated?  If moisture remains on roads or bridges then there could be some icy spots.
Wind direction and speed: SW to N at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  If moisture remains on roads or bridges then there could be some icy spots.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise:  6:04 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:31 PM

 

December 7, 2018
Friday forecast:   Increasing clouds through the day.  Most of the area may remain dry during the day.  I will be monitoring the Poplar Bluff, MO area into the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee.  There could be some rain/snow mix developing as the day wears on.  Low confidence in that part of the forecast.  Monitor updates as I track a winter storm out of Oklahoma and Texas.  Below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 32 to 36      IL ~32 to 36       KY ~ 34 to 38      TN ~ 36 to 40
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?   Monitor updates.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?   Perhaps in the above-mentioned areas.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Unlikely
Wind direction and speed:  Northeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? For most, no.  Monitor parts of southeast Missouri and western Tennessee in case precipitation develops sooner.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:56 AM

 

NOTE:

As always, winter storms in our region are fickle, at best.  Any shift in the main weather features could completely change the forecast.  If the system phases with a northern system then rain chances increase for some of us.  Temperatures would be warmer.

If the high pressure is stronger then the storm could be pushed southward and many of us will receive no measurable snow.

There is the potential of a closed low developing Sunday night and Monday.  This would extend the precipitation timing.

The system has been slowing.  That means instead of Friday afternoon and Friday night it could be more of a late Friday night into Monday event.

There remain a lot of questions about this winter storm.  We won’t know the answers to those questions until Thursday night and Friday.

For now, monitor updates.  Numerous winter precipitation advisories will be issues from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas into our region and areas south and east of us.

A changeable forecast is likely.  Thus, the low confidence rating on some of these daily forecasts.  

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
** Winter Storm Potential **
Forecast:  Low confidence in the details.  Cloudy. The timing of precipitation arrival is questionable.  There is a lot of dry air to overcome.  Sometimes it takes time for that dry air to saturate.  This delays precipitation.  AlLso, there could be a SHARP cut-off in those who receive precipitation and those who do not.  This remains a question.  A chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow developing from the southwest.  Greatest chances will be over southern Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.  Monitor updates as the track of this winter storm is still in play.  If you have travel plans this weekend, then monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW (30% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 23 to 26      IL ~ 23 to 26        KY ~ 25 to 28       TN ~  26 to 30
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 10 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% near Farmington, Missouri to 60% over the Missouri Bootheel     IL ~ 20% near Mt Vernon, Illinois to 50% as you move towards Metropolis, Illinois     KY ~ 20% near Owensboro, Kentucky to 50% near Fulton, Kentucky     TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  None far north is a possibility (Farmington, MO towards Carmi, IL).  Scattered to perhaps numerous as you move towards the Missouri Bootheel into western Tennessee.  Confidence on the timing of the precipitations arrival remains a question.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  Yes.  Some snow and ice accumulation is going to be possible.  Low confidence.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? 
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Yes.  Some icy roads are possible.  Low confidence.
Wind direction and speed: North at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Icy roads.  Snow covered roads.  Monitor updates.   Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in areas with higher precipitation chances
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Yes.  Icy roads could be an issue.  If you have travel plans then monitor updates.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 7:02 AM New
Moonset:  5:13 PM

 

December 8, 2018
** Winter Storm Potential **
Saturday forecast:  Confidence in the winter storm details does remain low.  Continue to monitor updated forecasts.   Cloudy.   Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow likely.  It is possible we have a sharp cut-off in precipitation totals north to south.  Southern areas will have higher totals.  Breezy.  Cold.  Below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW (30% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 32 to 34      IL ~32 to 34       KY ~ 32 to 34      TN ~ 32 to 34
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 25
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 60%     IL ~ 50%     KY ~ 60%     TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to widely scattered far northern counties (Farmington, MO to Carmi, IL) and perhaps widespread as you move into the MO/AR border counties, Bootheel, and western Tennessee.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  Yes.  There is the potential of freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  Confidence in the details remains low.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?   
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Yes
Wind direction and speed:  North and northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Icy roadways possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecast.  Forecast changes are likely.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Yes.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:57 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
** Winter Storm Potential **
Forecast:  Confidence in the winter storm details does remain low.  Continue to monitor updated forecasts.  Cloudy.  Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow likely.  It is possible we have a sharp cut-off in precipitation totals north to south.  Southern areas will have higher totals.  Breezy.  Cold.  Below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW (30% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 25 to 30      IL ~ 25  to 30        KY ~ 25  to 30       TN ~  25  to 30
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 10 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 70%     IL ~ 60%     KY ~ 80%     TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps widespread.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  Yes.  That will be a possibility.  Keep in mind, confidence in the details does remain low.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? 
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Yes.  Icy roads are possible.
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 30 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Icy roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Yes.  Precipitation could cause problems with travel.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise:  7:58 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  6:00 PM

 

December 9, 2018
** Winter Storm Potential **
Sunday forecast: Cloudy.  Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW (30% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 30 to 35      IL ~30 to 35       KY ~ 30 to 35      TN ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:  20 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 50%     KY ~ 60%     TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered north to perhaps numerous as you move into Kentucky and Tennessee.  Further north and east you travel the greater the coverage potential.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  Monitor updates
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?   Yes
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Yes.  Icy roads will be possible.  Monitor updates.
Wind direction and speed:  North at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? The region could have some icy road conditions.  If you have travel plans then monitor regional updates.
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 6:58 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW (30% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 20 to 25      IL ~ 20 to 25        KY ~ 18 to 24       TN ~  18 to 24
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 10 to 15
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  Perhaps
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? 
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Yes.  Some icy roads will be possible in the region.
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor road conditions.  Icy roads are possible if the winter storm does materialize.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.  There could still be icy roads remaining in the region.  This will be dependent on the track of the weekend winter storm.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Remaining impacts from the winter storm are possible.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise:  8:49 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  6:50 PM

 

I will add the Monday to Wednesday forecast later this morning.

 

Snow showers may continue into Monday night.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

Click to enlarge

 

 

Friday night into Monday:  A winter storm is likely to impact portions of the central and southern United States. Significant accumulations of freezing rain, sleet, and snow are possible along the track of the winter storm.  The question will be the track.

It does appear some winter weather will impact portions of our region.  The southern half of the region has a better chance than northern areas.  Northern areas would mean Farmington, Missouri east and northeast towards Carmi, Illinois.

If the system does phase and track further north then all of our region would experience rain and a wintry mix.  Needless to say, details are going to be sketchy this far out.  I will continue to fine-tune the forecast over the next few days.

If you have travel plans this weekend then you will want to monitor updated forecasts.

 

 

Cold cold and more cold.  What a crazy pattern we are stuck in.

Here are this mornings temperature anomalies.  How many degrees below normal are temperatures?

 

 

November was cold.  December has been cold.  Yes, last Saturday was mild.  Guess that was our token warm day!

Temperatures will remain below normal into next week.

We did have snow showers yesterday and last night.  Some areas received a dusting.  There were even some icy roads last night and this morning.

Most of the snow showers have come to an end.

 

Thursday cold front.

Our next weather maker will be a cold front that will arrive Thursday afternoon and night.

A band of rain and rain/snow showers will accompany the front.

Temperatures by Friday morning should fall into the teens over our northern counties and widespread twenties for others.   Brrr.  Wind chills will be in the teens.

Here is the NAM future-cast radar.  The green represents rain.  Blue is snow.

This is the cold front that pushes through the region tomorrow.

Just because it doesn’t show precipitation over some areas does not mean that will be correct.  We do have at least some chance of light precip area-wide by Thursday into Thursday night.

Not much, but a little.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click to enlarge graphics on my digital media blog.

 

 

Weekend Winter Storm Potential.

The big weather story continues to be the weekend winter storm.

It is looking more and more likely that a winter storm will impact our region.  Questions, however, remain about the details.

I will be holding a Facebook Q&A Wednesday night at 8:30 PM.  Find that on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page.

 

 

 

 

Keep scrolling down for more maps and discussion.

 

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An extremely complex forecast is evolving.

As always, winter storms in our region are fickle.  Changes in track, intensity, other weather players on the field would all impact our eventual forecast.

The system in question won’t be fully sampled (onshore) until tonight into Thursday.

Here it is.  I circled the storm system.  Notice that band of clouds moving southwest to the northeast?   That is a lot of moisture.

GOES 17 imagery.  Satellite.  Water vapor image.

 

 

The models have been extremely consistent in showing this winter storm.  It started showing up in the analogs over a month ago!  It started showing up in the actual models two weeks ago.  It has been there ever since.

Most of the larger events show up in the models weeks in advance.

Yes, there have been fluctuations in the track and intensity, but that is to be expected.  What is important is that all of the model guidance has been showing this system.

It is going to happen.  There is a 100% chance of a winter storm impacting portions of the central and southern United States.  What matters to you are the details.

Trends over the past 24 hours.

1.  A stronger system.  A slowing of the arrival time.
2.  A partial phase of the northern and southern jet (some guidance has always shown this)
3.  The development of an upper-level low Sunday night into Monday night (some models have always shown that).

The favored model is the updated GFS.  The old GFS has been awful.  The new one, however, has been consistent for days on end.

The EC is the second most favored model.

Typically, I like to forecast using trends and ensembles.  Then, I take a blend of the weighted confidence levels in the models and make a forecast.  You can’t use one model to make a forecast.  Meteorology doesn’t work that way.

All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.

The ensembles have been consistent in showing heavy precipitation across KS/OK/TX into the TN Valley and southlands.

There are many variables that are going to impact our region.

1.  The position of an area of high-pressure approaching from the northwest.  Dry air aloft could mean a SHARP cut-off in precipitation totals.  I can remember some systems that produced no snow over northern parts of a county and four or more inches in the southern part of a county.  That is certainly possible.  That means some of you will receive no snow if the high pressure squashes this to the south.
2.  A northern jet stream system will approach our region over the weekend.  This could phase/join the southern system. A phase would mean a stronger system and it would also mean precipitation would occur further north.  That would mean all of us would experience some type of precipitation.  It would also mean rain for some.  Whether we have no phase, a partial phase, or a full phase is key to the eventual forecast.
3.  The position of the main area of low pressure and the 850 MB low pressure (upper-level low).
4.  The potential of a cut-off low Sunday night into Monday night could mean an extended period of snow showers that would continue into Monday.  That could add to totals.

Needless to say, confidence in the details remains low.  I have not changed my confidence levels when it comes to details (see the top of the blog for those details).

Everyone should continue to monitor the forecast.  If you have travel plans this weekend then keep checking back.

Confidence in the forecast will increase by Thursday night and Friday morning.  We normally tell people 12 to 24 hours in advance is when confidence levels increase.  Even then, it is never a perfect forecast.

Numbers aren’t important.  The impact is important.  We know there could be some travel issues in the region Friday night into Monday.  We don’t yet know the placement of those issues or precipitation totals.

Let’s look at some maps and some explanations as to why they differ.

Here is the potential phasing of the northern and southern disturbances.

I circled the two areas of concern.  Will they join?  That is a key question.

 

 

First, let’s pull up the EC mode guidance.

The EC has been semi-consistent.  Last night, however, it had some changes.  It started to show an upper-level low for the Sunday and Monday time frame.  This caused it to produce more snow locally.

There have been differing opinions, by the EC model, for phasing and no phasing.

It also was further north than recent runs.

A phasing would slow the system down and pull it further northward.  Rain?  Could be for some if that happens.

Most models have slowed the system by six to twelve hours.  That would mean the bulk of the impact would be late Friday night and especially Saturday and Sunday.

Here is a future-cast radar animation from the EC model guidance.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink, orange, and red are a wintry mix.

Sorry for the fast speed.  Most of this would be Saturday and Sunday per the EC guidance.

 

 

It produces large totals of precipitation.

This next image is from the Canadian model guidance.  It shows a solid winter storm for our region.

It does try and phase the system.  It also has an upper-level low by the end of the weekend.  That upper level low causes the snow to linger and totals to go up.

The Canadian model would be a snow lovers friend.

 

 

The NAM guidance is just now starting to pull into the time-frame where it shows the system.

The NAM shows quite a bit of precipitation in our local area.

It also shows a warm nudge of air that changes the snow to rain over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.  It then changes it back to snow.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Other colors are a wintry mix (red and purple).

 

 

The NAM stops at 6 PM on Saturday.  It only goes out to 84 hours.

You can see it has snow totals to our southwest.  The system is just arriving locally and even has some rain mixed in.

More precipitation falls after this time frame.

 

 

Here is the freezing rain forecast from the NAM guidance.

You can usually cut these numbers in half.  If it shows 0.50″ of freezing rain then that would become 0.15″ to 0.25″.

 

 

Needless to say, details remain a bit murky.

 

Let’s look at some ensembles.

 

 

Here are some model ensemble packages.  Each showing you wintry precipitation totals (keep in mind this could be a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow).

A mix would cut down snow totals.

 

CLICK EACH IMAGE TO ENLARGE

EC model guidance

Remember, the more squares that agree the higher the confidence in the outcome.

Don’t get hung up on totals.  The models handle totals poorly.  Pay more attention to the track of the totals.

Click to enlarge.

Again, ignore the actual numbers.  Focus on the path.

 

 

Again, ignore the actual numbers.  Focus on the path.

 

 

The EC mean (average of all the squares above).

Ignore the totals.  Concentrate on the track.  That is all that matters right now.

Models don’t do well with snow totals.  Poorly, actually.

 

 

Canadian model guidance (this is the mean)

Again, ignore the actual numbers.  Focus on the path.

 

 

 

GFS model guidance

Again, ignore the numbers.  Focus on the path.

 

 

The new GFS (the old one will be decommissioned January 1st)

It keeps the heavier totals to our south.

Again, ignore the actual numbers.  Focus on the path.

 

 

 

Bottom line:

Monitor updates.  A winter storm will impact portions of the central and southern United States later this week.

If you have travel plans from our region southward then monitor updates.

I have increased the probabilities of a winter storm impacting our region.

 

 

I am monitoring December 18th through the 22nd for a precipitation system, as well.