Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 5, 2017: Colder air is arriving.

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Beau’s Daily forecast
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December 5, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A few passing clouds.  Much colder.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 25 to 30    IL ~ 25 to 30      KY ~ 26 to 32
Wind chill values: 20 to 24
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: West at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph early.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none.  Perhaps patchy fog.  
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 6, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny and colder.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48     IL ~ 44 to 48       KY ~ 45 to 50
Wind chill values: 35 to 40
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clear to partly cloudy and colder.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 23 to 26     IL ~ 23 to 26       KY ~ 24 to 26
Wind chill values: 18 to 23
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none 
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 7, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 35 to 40     IL ~ 36 to 42      KY ~ 36 to 42
Wind chill values: 22 to 34
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  Flurries if anything at all
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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The track of two storm systems on Thursday through Saturday will be the key to whether someone in our local area receives a few snowflakes. Too early to know the exact path of the systems.  No

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds. A 20% of snow showers.  Cold.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 18 to 24     IL ~ 18 to 24       KY ~ 20 to 25
Wind chill values: 10 to 18
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: Variable winds at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Cold wind chills.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? Snow showers are possible
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 8, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Snow showers possible during the afternoon.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 36 to 42     IL ~ 36 to 42      KY ~ 38 to 42
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: Unlikely, but monitor updates
Winds: West and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Nothing significant
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  Snow showers are possible
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (if anything at all)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  Snow showers possible.  Cold.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 20 to 24    IL ~ 20 to 24       KY ~ 22 to 26
Wind chill values: 8 to 18
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds
: West and northwest winds at 7 to 14 mph.  Gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: LOW
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? Snow showers are possible
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates

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December 9, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds.  Snow showers possible.  Cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 32 to 36     IL ~ 26 to 34      KY ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill values: 15 to 24
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor updates
Winds: West and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  Snow showers are possible
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  It will be quite cold.

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clearing.  Cold.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 16 to 24     IL ~ 16 to 24       KY ~ 16 to 24
Wind chill values: 8 to 16 degrees
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: North and northwest winds at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? Most likely none
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 10, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny and cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 40 to 45     IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 42 to 46
Wind chill values: 25 to 32
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: West and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Cold.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 25 to 30     IL ~ 25 to 30       KY ~ 25 to 30
Wind chill values: 22 to 25 degrees
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? None
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No
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December 11, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny and not as cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50     IL ~ 45 to 50      KY ~ 45 to 50
Wind chill values: 35 to 40
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: West and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 25 to 30     IL ~ 25 to 30       KY ~ 25 to 30
Wind chill values: 20 to 25 degrees
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: LOW
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? None
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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Tuesday night through Monday through Sunday:  Some snow showers are possible Friday into Saturday.  It is too early to know if accumulation will be a concern.
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2014-11-24_13-38-04

The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Tuesday night through next Tuesday:  No severe weather.

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beausanalysis

 

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Cooler temperatures are pushing across the region.

Here is the temperature map as of 9 AM

I think you can spot the cold front!

Click images for larger views.

There is even some light snow further west in Missouri.
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We had a band of thunderstorms overnight.  Some of the storms produced gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.  Rainfall totals topped an inch in some locations.  Most areas receive 0.40″ to 0.80″.

The line of showers and storms continues to move off to the east.

We will be left with some clouds, cooler temperatures, and gusty winds into this afternoon and tonight.

Temperatures today will likely fall into the lower 40’s by evening.

Dry weather is anticipated through Thursday.  I did include a tiny chance of snow flurries on Thursday night, but nothing of significance.

A stronger system will move into the region Friday and Saturday.  This system could produce some snow or snow showers.  It is still too early to know if accumulation will occur.  It is difficult forecasting amounts more than 24 to 48 hours in advance of a system.

The GFS model guidance is showing some light accumulation

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The Canadian model is showing very little accumulation (if any)

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Temperatures will be colder over the coming days.  Highs will struggle to move out of the 30’s on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  Overnight lows will drop into the upper teens to middle 20’s on Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday night.

Temperatures will be somewhat dependent on whether we have snow on the ground later this week.  If that occurs then even colder temperatures can be expected.

Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook
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Snowflakes are possible later this week and perhaps next week, as well.

Here are my latest snow probability maps.  These graphics have nothing to do with accumulation.  This is simply the forecast probability of snow falling.
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Numbers are mostly unchanged today.
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