Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 31, 2016: Happy New Year’s Eve

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For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service.  Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.  You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  These are updated twice weekly.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects.  Including our yearly teddy bear program.  We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.

Winter storm outlook has been posted.  Updated on Thursday, December 29th

Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab

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Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects.  Including our yearly teddy bear program.  We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.

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December 30, 2016
Friday Night:  Mostly clear early and then increasing clouds after midnight.  A few light showers after 2 am.  Small chance for sleet pellets or a mix in the Missouri Ozarks.  Rainfall totals tonight will be 0.00″ to 0.05″
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 30’s
Wind Chill:  20 to 26 degrees
Winds: South at 10-20 mph.  Gusty winds late (light winds early in the night)
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%  KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  A few spotty showers late tonight.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:55 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:23 p.m.  Waxing Crescent 
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WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

December 31, 2016
Saturday:  Cloudy.  Some scattered light showers, especially over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.  Lesser chances north and west vs south and east.  Rainfall totals of 0.00″ to 0.30″.  Some areas may receive no measureable precipitation. 
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:   High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 8-16 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%  KY ~ 70%  TN ~ 70%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Isolated as you travel north towards Farmington and Mt Vernon.  Scattered over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  A bit more widespread over the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No significant winter precipitation is anticipated
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Consider having a plan B.  At least scattered rain showers are likely to occur on Saturday.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 8:39 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:21 p.m.  Waxing Crescent 
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Saturday Night:  Cloudy.  Showers ending.  
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:
High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 30’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Winds variable at 3-6 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%  KY ~ 40%  TN ~ 40% (mostly before midnight)
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered early in the night.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Nothing significant anticipated.  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Some showers possible, at least consider a plan B (esp KY/TN)

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January 1, 2016
Near Year’s Day
Sunday:  Mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible.
What impact is expected?  Perhaps wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  East at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%  KY ~ 20%  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Isolated to scattered.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 9:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:20 p.m.  Waning Crescent 
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Sunday Night:  Cloudy.  A few showers possible.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 40’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates

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January 2, 2016
Monday:  Mostly cloudy.  Becoming windy.  Rain showers possible.  A thunderstorm not out of the question.  Perhaps greater coverage in the afternoon vs morning.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor for potential strong storms over our southern counties of the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  South at 6-12 mph.  Gusts above 30 mph possible after 11 am.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%  KY ~ 60%  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Scattered to perhaps numerous.  Timing of the system will need adjusting
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updated forecasts
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates. 
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m.  Waning Crescent 
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Monday Night:  Cloudy.  Breezy.  Showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be strong.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor for potential strong storms over our southern counties of the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee (mainly early)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Temperatures may rise into the 60’s before midnight.  The speed of the cold front will have to be monitored.  Colder air arrives behind the front.  Warm air ahead of the front.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Southwest to west at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Winds near thunderstorms might be higher.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Perhaps numerous
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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January 3, 2016
Tuesday:  Mostly cloudy.  Temperatures may fall during the afternoon as a cold front moves trough the area.  
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the upper 50’s (temps may fall over portions of the area during the afternoon and evening)
Wind Chill
Winds:  Southwest becoming west/northwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 20%  KY ~ 20%  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
? None to isolated early
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m.  Waning Crescent 
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Tuesday Night:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Colder.  Snow flurries possible.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s
Wind Chill:  15 to 25 degrees
Winds:  North at 6-12 mph and gusty
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
: None to isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Flurries possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates

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January 4, 2016
Wednesday:  Mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Temperatures holding steady.
What impact is expected?  Cold wind chills.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 30’s
Wind Chill:  18-30
Winds:  Northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%  KY ~ 20%  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation

Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Flurries possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be chilly.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 1:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:04 p.m.  Waning Crescent 
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Wednesday Night:  Mostly cloudy.  Colder.  A snow flurries possible.
What impact is expected
?  Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the 20 to 25 degree range.
Wind Chill:  15-20 degrees
Winds:  North at 4~8 mph.  Gusts to 14 mph in the evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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See the winter storm outlook for details on a possible wintry event late next week. See the winter storm update on the www.weathertalk.com website for details.   The outlook is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.

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More information on the UV index.  Click here.
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Friday: Updated the winter weather outlook on the www.weathertalk.com page (under the Daily Weather Summary page)
  2.  Shower chances increase over the weekend
  3.  Thunderstorms Monday/Monday night?
  4.  Watching next weeks cold blast
  5.  Snow next week?  See the winter storm update on the www.weathertalk.com website for details.

Forecast Analysis:

Winter outlook has been posted and updated!

Updated on Friday afternoon.  I will probably update it each day.  I am tracking the mid to late week system next week.  Thus, frequent updates likely.

The winter outlook can be found on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Sign into your account and click the Daily Weather Summary tab.  You will find a link and password to view the outlook.

Friday night through Sunday night

High confidence

Clouds will increase on Friday night into Saturday morning.  This will occur ahead of a weak storm system moving into the region.  Most of the precipitation will arrive on Saturday.

Gusty winds will develop late Friday night into Saturday morning.  Winds of 10-25 mph will be possible.  Mostly out of the south and southwest.
Here is the wind gust map from the NAM guidance.  You can see some 20 to 25 mph gusts.  This is midnight on Friday night/Saturday morning.
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12 AM chart
7 AM map
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Temperatures on Friday night will dip into the 30’s.  Most areas will remain above freezing.  There is a small chance for some light sleet pellets are the beginning of the precipitation.  Chances, at this time, appear fairly low.  This is mostly a light rain shower event.
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This system will move out of the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  That will leave us with some clouds on Sunday and perhaps a few patchy showers.  Same for Sunday night.
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Here are some future-cast radar images from the high-resolution NAM guidance
This first graphic is for 4 am on Saturday.  Some patchy light showers in the region.
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This next image is for 6 am on Saturday
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This next image is for 12 pm on Saturday
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This next image is for 4 pm on Saturday
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This next image is for 8 on Saturday
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Monday into Tuesday
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A stronger storm system will move into the region on Monday and Monday night.  Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity during this time frame.  Perhaps the best rain chances will arrive on Monday afternoon and Monday night/Tuesday morning.Rainfall totals from the Saturday and Sunday event should range from 0.05″ to  0.30″.  Not much.  Heavier totals are possible with the Monday/Tuesday event.  Rainfall totals during that time frame will likely range from 0.50″ to 1.00″.  Locally heavier totals are possible if thunderstorms develop.
The track of the area of low pressure on Monday and Monday night will be key to the rainfall totals and thunderstorm activity.
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I will be monitoring the severe weather potential for Monday afternoon and Monday night.  At this time, the threat for severe weather appears low, but perhaps not zero.  Monitor updates, as always.
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Colder air will arrive behind a strong cold front on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Temperatures may actually fall on Wednesday afternoon as the cold air filters into the region.
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Here is the temperature map for Tuesday at 12 pm
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You can see the cold air to the northwest.
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Here is the temperature map for midnight on Wednesday
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A few rain or snow showers will be possible along the front on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Accumulation is not anticipated.
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Another storm system (see the winter weather outlook) will push towards our region around Thursday/Friday/Saturday.  Most of the guidance wants to take that system well to our south.  This will need to be monitored as we move forward.
Long update today to the winter weather outlook.  Quite a bit of ground to cover over the next three weeks.  Several systems to track.
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To
view the winter weather outlook sign into your www.weathertalk.com account and click the Daily Weather Summary button.  Then, follow the directions.
Find me on Twitter, as well!

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

These numbers might shift.  I am monitoring the track of an area of low pressure on Monday into Monday night.  Between Saturday and Monday night/Tuesday morning, most areas should have picked up 0.40″ to 0.80″ of rain.  Pockets of 0.80″ to 1.2″ are possible.

These first two maps are for the Friday night through Sunday afternoon showers.  Precipitation should be light during this time period.  Heavier totals along the Kentucky and Tennessee border.  Less totals over our far north and west counties.

Click to enlarge the image

Weatherbell.com image source

 

Click image to enlarge

These next maps are for the entire six day period.  This is Friday through Wednesday.

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High and Low Temperature Outlook 

Saturday morning low temperatures.
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Saturday afternoon high temperatures


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Sunday morning low temperatures

Sunday afternoon high temperatures
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..Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Friday through Sunday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated through this coming Sunday.

Monday into Monday night:  Monitor updates.  Thunderstorms are possible.  The severe weather risk will need to be monitored.

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Updated rain probabilities.
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No significant concerns through Sunday afternoon.  Light rain possible.

I am monitoring a small risk for a wintry mix late Friday night/Saturday morning for the Missouri Ozarks.

I am monitoring Monday’s thunderstorm chances.  Check back for updates.

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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