Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 30, 2016: Dry Friday. Rain for the weekend.

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Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

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For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service.  Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.  You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  These are updated twice weekly.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects.  Including our yearly teddy bear program.  We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.

Winter storm outlook has been posted.  Updated on Thursday, December 29th

Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab

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Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects.  Including our yearly teddy bear program.  We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.

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December 29, 2016
Thursday Night:  Clear.  Cold.   Breezy, especially early.
What impact is expected
?  None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the middle 20’s north and upper 20’s to lower 30’s south
Wind Chill:  16 to 24
Winds: West at 10-15 mph.  Higher gusts early in the night. 
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%  KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:29 p.m.  New Moon 
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December 30, 2016
Friday:  Mostly sunny.  Cool.
What impact is expected?  None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  West winds becoming southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%   IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise 
will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3

Moonrise 
will be at 7:55 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:23 p.m.  Waxing Crescent 
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Friday Night:  Mostly clear early and then increasing clouds after midnight.  A few light showers after 2 am.  Small chance for sleet pellets or a mix in the Missouri Ozarks.  Rainfall totals tonight will be 0.00″ to 0.05″
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 30’s
Wind Chill:  20 to 26 degrees
Winds: South at 10-20 mph.  Gusty winds late (light winds early in the night)
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%  KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  A few spotty showers late tonight.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:55 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:23 p.m.  Waxing Crescent 
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December 31, 2016
Saturday:  Cloudy.  Some scattered light showers, especially over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.  Lesser chances north and west vs south and east.  Rainfall totals of 0.00″ to 0.30″.  Some areas may receive no measureable precipitation. 
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:   High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 8-16 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%  KY ~ 70%  TN ~ 70%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Isolated as you travel north towards Farmington and Mt Vernon.  Scattered over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  A bit more widespread over the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No significant winter precipitation is anticipated
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Consider having a plan B.  At least scattered rain showers are likely to occur on Saturday.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 8:39 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:21 p.m.  Waxing Crescent 
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Saturday Night:  Cloudy.  Showers ending.  
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:
High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 30’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Winds becoming northwest and then northeast at 3-6 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%  KY ~ 50%  TN ~ 50% (mostly before midnight)
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered early in the night.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Nothing significant anticipated.  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Some showers possible, at least consider a plan B (esp KY/TN)

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January 1, 2016
Near Year’s Day
Sunday:  Mostly cloudy.  
What impact is expected?  Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  East at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%  KY ~ 20%  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Isolated to scattered.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 9:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:20 p.m.  Waning Crescent 
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Sunday Night:  Cloudy.  A few showers possible.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 40’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  East at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates

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See the winter storm outlook for details on a possible wintry event late next week. See the winter storm update on the www.weathertalk.com website for details.   The outlook is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.

More information on the UV index.  Click here.

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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Updated the winter weather outlook on the www.weathertalk.com page (under the Daily Weather Summary page)
  2.  Dry Friday
  3.  Wet weekend?
  4.  Arctic blast next week
  5.  Snow next week?  See the winter storm update on the www.weathertalk.com website for details.
  6. Contest winners
  7.  Shadow Angel Foundation announcement

In case you missed the announcement!  We have added a new charity to the list of charities that we support/work with.

Click image to enlarge

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Forecast Analysis:

Winter outlook has been posted and updated!

Updated on Thursday afternoon.

The winter outlook can be found on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Sign into your account and click the Daily Weather Summary tab.  You will find a link and password to view the outlook.

Thursday night through Friday night

High confidence

Cold conditions for Thursday night and on Friday.  Gusty winds will continue into Thursday evening.  Winds will subside overnight.  Gusts during the evening could top 30 mph.  Winds decreasing into the 5-10 mph range late Thursday night/Friday morning.

Dry weather anticipated through Friday evening.  Friday morning lows will dip into the 20’s.  Highs on Friday will remain in the 40’s.

Our next weather maker arrives on Friday night and Saturday.

Clouds will increase from southwest to northeast on Friday night.  Small chance for precipitation after 3 am over the Missouri Ozarks.

New Year’s Eve and Sunday:

Medium confidence.

A weak disturbance will pass through the region late Friday night into Saturday.  There will be enough lift in the atmosphere to trigger rain showers.  At this time, it appears that temperatures will be warm enough for all rain.  There is a small window of opportunity for a wintry mix late Friday night/Saturday morning over the Missouri Ozarks.  It appears this will have little or no impact on travel.   I will keep an eye on guidance trends.

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Rain chances will peak on Saturday and Saturday afternoon.  This will be a light rain event.  Rainfall totals of o.05″ to 0.30″ are anticipated.  Perhaps a bit more towards the KY/TN border counties and into Tennessee.
A few rain showers will continue into Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Once again, there is a small window of opportunity at the end of precipitation for a light wintry mix.  This appears unlikely, but I will monitor trends in case something were to change.
Sunday night into Monday night:
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A more significant weather system will develop on Sunday night into Tuesday.  An area of low pressure will develop over Texas and Oklahoma.  This system will move into the Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley on Sunday night and especially Monday/Monday night.

Heavier rainfall totals are anticipated with that system.  Totals of 0.40″ to 0.80″ should be common across the region with locally heavier totals possible.

Some guidance indicates a band of 1″ to 1.5″ across portions of the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

The track of the area of low pressure will need to be monitored.  The EC guidance takes the low into northern Missouri and northern Illinois.  The GFS track is through western Kentucky.  This will be important for rainfall totals.  The GFS paints heavier rain in our region than the EC.

I will hold with the above rainfall totals, for the time being.  Let’s monitor the guidance and I will update accordingly once confidence rises in the eventual track of the area of low pressure.

 

Blast of cold air next week:

A LONG update today to the winter weather outlook.  Lot of ground to cover over the next three weeks.  Several systems to track.

To view the winter weather outlook sign into your www.weathertalk.com account and click the Daily Weather Summary button.  Then, follow the directions.

Find me on Twitter, as well!

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

These numbers might shift.  I am monitoring the track of an area of low pressure on Sunday night into Monday night.  Between Saturday and Monday night/Tuesday morning, most areas should have picked up 0.40″ to 0.80″ of rain.  Pockets of 0.80″ to 1.2″ are possible.

Again, see information above.  Track of the low is key to rainfall totals.

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High and Low Temperature Outlook 

Friday morning low temperatures.
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Friday afternoon high temperatures

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Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon high
 temperatures
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..Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thursday through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated through this coming Sunday.

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No major changes.
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No significant concerns through Friday.

I am monitoring a small risk for a wintry mix late Friday night/Saturday morning for the Missouri Ozarks.

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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