Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 30, 2015: Calm and chilly weather.

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This would make a great Christmas present for someone 🙂

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.


River Crest Forecasts are posted further down in the blog. 

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Tuesday – Quiet a few clouds.  Colder than recent days.  Finally, it might feel like winter?
Temperatures:  Highs in the 38 to 45 degree range
Winds:  West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph during the morning hours.

What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams may have flooding problems.  Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.

 

Tuesday night – Quiet a few clouds.  Chilly.  But, nothing unusual for late December.  Just a small chance for a sprinkle.
Temperatures:  Lows 32 to 36 degrees
Winds:  Light and variable winds at 0-5 mph. 
What is the chance for precipitation
? 10%
Coverage of precipitation
?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams may have flooding problems.  Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.

 

Wednesday – Mostly cloudy.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle 40s
Winds:  West or variable winds 3-5 mph.  Winds in the afternoon may gust into the 10-12 mph range.

What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected? Rivers and streams may have flooding problems.  Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.

 

Wednesday night – Just a few clouds and colder.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 20s
Winds:  North and northwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 0%
Coverage of precipitation
?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams may have flooding problems.  Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.

 

Thursday – Quite a bit of sun anticipated.  But, it will be cold.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 30s
Winds:  Northwest at 6-12 mph

What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams may have flooding problems.  Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.

 

** New Years Eve ** Thursday night – Just a few clouds and colder.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle 20s
Winds:  North and northwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 0%
Coverage of precipitation
?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams may have flooding problems.  Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.

 

Friday – Quite a bit of sun anticipated.  But, it will be cold.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle 30s
Winds:  Northwest at 6-12 mph

What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams may have flooding problems.  Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.

 

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highverification

 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  River flooding is the concern
2.  Major river flooding will occur over the next ten days.  Especially the Mississippi River
3.  Colder weather into first week of January.
4.  Avoid flooded roadways.

The big news story over the coming days will be the river flooding.  It has already made national news.  And, it will continue to do so.

Sharp rises will continue on most area rivers.  If you live along the river and have experienced flooding in the past then monitor the latest river crest levels.  This is especially true along the Mississippi River.  This will not be another 2011 for the Ohio River in Metropolis and Paducah.

The crest numbers will be extremely high on the Mississippi River.  Record crest levels are forecast for several locations.  One location could be Cape Girardeau, Missouri.  There, we may touch the record high crest level.

Monitor the latest information from your local, city, and state government officials.  In the event of evacuations, those will be your best sources for information.  Be sure and obtain your information from a reputable source.  There have already been rumors spreading over the last couple of days.  Your local and state officials can answer your questions with factual information.

The good news is that I am not forecasting any additional rainfall through Friday.  And, most likely into early next week.

I am monitoring a couple of systems between January 7th and 11th.  Those dates will move around a bit over the coming days.  It is in the long range.  No confidence at all in something actually happening.  The data does, however, show signals of additional weather systems to monitor during that time frame.  Whether they will impact our region is the question.  As you know, one can’t forecast that far in advance when any certainty.  Let’s keep watching.

The link for the river and lake stages can be found under the flood update icon.

Wow, has it been warm.  Let me show you a couple of maps.

This is the temperature anomaly map for the past seven days.  EXTREMELY warm across much of the United States.  Just one of the ingredients for the severe weather and heavy rainfall.  Image is from weatherbell.com  Click it for a larger view.  Those are some huge anomalies (how much above normal were temperatures)

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_week_anom

For the month to date (Since December 1st).

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom

 

Both Paducah, KY and Evansville, IN will shatter their temperature records for December.  Well above normal (to say the least).  Data from the NWS.

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Climate data color coded temperature departure map.  Yeesh.  December has been warm.  Just one reason for the stormy weather.

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Here are a couple of maps from the GFS model.  Long range forecast maps.

This map is for January 7th.  GFS does show some precipitation in our region.  Long way off.

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This next map is for January 9th.  Another system perhaps in our area.  We shall see, long way off.

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Check out this area of cold high pressure diving in from Canada.  The GFS is showing this scenario around January 14th.  Brrrrr if that were to happen.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52

 

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

Clickable map

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

 

 

winterstorm

No snow anticipated.

 

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Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday- No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.

 

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No major changes in this update.

 

whatamiconcered

The main concern for the coming week will be sharp rises on area rivers.  Some historic crest numbers are being forecast for the Mississippi River.  Large rises are expected on the Ohio River.

Monitor the latest crest forecast numbers.

Avoid flooded roadways.

 

willineedtotakeaction

Monitor river stages.

 

wildcard

The wild card in the forecast will be crest levels on the Mississippi River and Ohio River.  It appears there will be sharp rises on both rivers.  Will Cape Girardeau, Missouri reach their highest crest in recorded history?  It does appear possible.

 

rainfallforecast

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No significant rainfall anticipated through Friday.  There could be some light rain or sprinkles, but nothing of significance.

 

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO for Wednesday through Sunday.

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Wednesday through Sunday – Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

 

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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