Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 29, 2017: Cold continues.

Your daily forecast into the coming weekend.
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December 29, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy and cold.   A slight chance of snow showers or flurries.   A few patches of freezing drizzle are also possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 20 to 25      IL ~ 18 to 24     KY ~ 22 to 26
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated or none
Wind chill values: 5 to 15 degrees
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor freezing drizzle over our northern counties.
Winds
: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Cold wind chills.  Small chance for icy road conditions if freezing drizzle develops.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but it will be cold

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December 30, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A flurry possible.  Cold.  Temperatures falling through the day.  By evening temperatures will be in the upper teens across our northern counties and low to mid 20’s everywhere else.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 24 to 28  then falling temps    IL ~ 24 to 28  then falling temps     KY ~ 26 to 32 then falling temps
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind chill values: 5 to 15 above
Accumulating snow or ice: Unlikely
Winds: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low wind chills
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clearing.  A few clouds.  Bitterly cold air.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ +4 to 8      IL ~ +4 to 8       KY ~ +6 to 12
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%    IL ~ 5%    KY ~ 5% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none
Wind chill values: -10 to 10 above
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Bitterly cold wind chills.  
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but it will be cold

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December 31, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Some passing clouds.  Bitterly cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 15 to 20      IL ~ 15 to 20     KY ~ 16 to 22
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%    IL ~ 5%    KY ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind chill values: -10 to 15 above
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Most clear.  Bitterly cold. 
Temperatures
:    MO ~ +3 to 8      IL ~ +2 to 10       KY ~ +3 to 6
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Wind chill values: -15 to 10 degrees above
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: North at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Bitterly cold
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but it will be cold

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January 1, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Bitterly cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 14 to 18     IL ~  14 to 18      KY ~ 15 to 20
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: -12 to 5 above
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and bitterly cold.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ -1 to +6      IL ~ -1 to +6       KY ~ 2 to 6
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none
Wind chill values: -15 to 5 degrees above
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: North winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Cold wind chills
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but it will be cold

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January 2, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Sunny.  Cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 18 to 24     IL ~ 18 to 24      KY ~ 20 to 25
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: +5 to 15 above
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph.  Winds becoming variable.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and bitterly cold.  
Temperatures
:    MO temp range 7 to 14      IL temp range 6 to 12       KY temp range 7 to 14
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Wind chill values: -15 to 5 degrees above
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: North winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Cold wind chills
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but it will be cold

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January 3, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 25 to 30     IL ~ 25 to 30      KY ~ 25 to 30
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 10 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and bitterly cold.  
Temperatures
:    MO temp range 7 to 14      IL temp range 6 to 12       KY temp range 7 to 14
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Wind chill values: -10 to 5 degrees above
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds

What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Cold wind chills
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but it will be cold

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Friday night through next Wednesday:  Patchy freezing drizzle possible tonight over our northern counties.  That would be the Mt Vernon, IL area towards Owensboro, KY.

Small chance of flurries or a snow shower tonight into Saturday.  Accumulation, if any, would be nothing to a dusting.

Dry into the middle of next week.

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2014-11-24_13-38-04

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Now through next Saturday:  Severe storms are not anticipated.

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beausanalysis

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

Friday into Monday

Colder and perhaps stormier pattern for January.  That is the latest long range outlook.

An unusual weather pattern will continue to blanket our region.

Here is the Paducah, KY high and low temperature forecast graphic.  Plenty of cold weather.  Click to enlarge.
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Bitterly cold air is forecast to continue into much of next week.  The longevity of this cold snap is unusual.  It is also unusual for our region to dip into the single digits without snow cover.

If we had a blanket of snow, then we would be looking at temperatures of -10 to -15.  Since we don’t have snow, temperatures won’t be quite that cold!  Thankfully.

A few flurries and/or snow showers will be possible over the next 24 hours.  This will be in response to an incoming cold front and upper level disturbance.

Freezing drizzle will be possible over central Missouri and Central Illinois today.  If you are driving north, then keep that in mind.  The freezing drizzle should stay just to our north and northwest.

In my forecast area, odds favor no accumulation from the flurries and snow showers.  I can’t promise you there won’t be a dusting somewhere, but it appears areas to our north stand a better chance of that happening.

Here are three models and their snowfall forecasts.  North of our region will be receiving accumulating snow.

All three models have the same theme.

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Snow lovers, you will just have to keep waiting.  I know you are frustrated.

Here is the EC model guidance animation into the 2nd week of January.

At the end of the run it shows precipitation, but that is so far out that you can’t trust it.  Models don’t do well past a few days during the winter months.

Blue is snow.  Green is rain.  Other colors are sleet/ice.
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Several strong cold fronts will push through our region over the coming seven days.  Each will reinforce the cold temperatures.

See the daily details at the bottom of this post.

Be aware that this prolonged cold spell could mean broken water lines.  Pipes not protected could freeze.

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Click to enlarge

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Click to enlarge

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Don’t forget the outdoor animals, as well.  This prolonged cold will have an impact on them, as well.
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Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook

It is important to remember that this pattern is fluid.  There is always going to be lower than normal confidence, during the winter months, for the forecast past day three or four.
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Here are my latest snow probability maps.

Not much to work with.  Cold air, but not much moisture.

The counties not listed on the graphic below could also have flurries or snow showers.  There is a chance the system could move a tad further south.  If that were to happen, then I would need to update these numbers.
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These graphics show you the % chance of one inch or more of snow and/or accumulating sleet and freezing rain.

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Keep in mind, I rarely go above 10% chances past day five.  That means 10% is the max number for days six through ten.  

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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Live lightning data ~ click here

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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

 

 

 

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