Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 29, 2016: Windy Thursday.

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I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service.  Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.  You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  These are updated twice weekly.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects.  Including our yearly teddy bear program.  We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.

Winter storm outlook has been posted.  Updated on Tuesday, December 27th

Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab

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Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects.  Including our yearly teddy bear program.  We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.

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December 28, 2016
Wednesday Night:  Mostly cloudy early and then decreasing cloudiness.  Evening showers will end.  Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways before 8 pm
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 30’s
Wind Chill:  25~30
Winds: Becoming west and northwest at 10-20 mph and gusty
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40% (mostly early)
Coverage of
precipitation
: Perhaps scattered before 8 pm.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 6:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:35 p.m.  Waning Crescent 

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December 29, 2016
Thursday:  Gusty winds.  Mostly sunny.  Seasonably cool.
What impact is expected?  Strong winds could knock around outdoor decorations.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Wind Chill
Winds:  North and northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts to 35/40 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%  KY ~ 0%  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise 
will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3

Moonrise 
will be at 7:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:29 p.m.  New Moon 
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Thursday Night:  Clear.  Cold.   Breezy.
What impact is expected
?  None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 20’s
Wind Chill:  18 to 24
Winds: Northwest at 10-15 mph.  Higher gusts early in the night. 
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%  KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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December 30, 2016
Friday:  Mostly sunny.  Cool.
What impact is expected?  None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  West winds becoming southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%   IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise 
will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3

Moonrise 
will be at 7:55 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:23 p.m.  Waxing Crescent 
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Friday Night:  Partly cloudy.  Perhaps increasing clouds after midnight.  Slight chance for precipitation after 3 am over southeast Missouri.  I will monitor this part of the forecast. 
What impact is expected
?  Patchy fog possible.  Low confidence (for now) on the fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 30’s
Wind Chill:  28
Winds: Southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 10%  KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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December 31, 2016
Saturday:  Increasing clouds.  Small chance for sleet early and then rain showers possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  South at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%  KY ~ 30%  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Scattered, but monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Nothing signficant.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates 
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 8:39 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:21 p.m.  Waxing Crescent 
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Saturday Night:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Precipitation may briefly end as sleet or light snow.  No accumulation or problems anticipated.  Rain ending with some decrease in clouds after 3 am.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 30’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%  KY ~ 40%  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Nothing significant anticipated.  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would encourage you to monitor updates.  Rain is a possibility.  Low confidence.

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January 1, 2016
Sunday:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered rain showers possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  East at 4-8 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%  KY ~ 40%  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updated forecasts. 
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 9:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:20 p.m.  Waning Crescent 
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Sunday Night:  Cloudy.  Low confidence on Sunday night’s rain chances.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  East at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates

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January 2, 2016
Monday:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain showers possible.  A thunderstorm not out of the question.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the middle to upper 50’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  South at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%  KY ~ 40%  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updated forecasts
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updated forecasts. 
Sunrise 
will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m.  Waning Crescent 
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Monday Night:  Cloudy.  Rain possible.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Southwest to west at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates

 

More information on the UV index.  Click here
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Visit their website here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Winter outlook has been posted
  2.  Showers ending
  3.  Gusty Thursday winds
  4.  Weekend rain?
  5.  Arctic cold next week?
  6. Contest winners
  7.  Shadow Angel Foundation announcement

In case you missed the announcement!  We have added a new charity to the list of charities that we support/work with.

Click image to enlarge

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Also, did you win anything in the BIG contest giveaway?  CLICK HERE (see if you won something)

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Thank you, for entering.  I will have more contests soon.  Monitor updates!

Forecast Analysis:

Winter outlook has been posted and updated!

The winter outlook can be found on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Sign into your account and click the Daily Weather Summary tab.  You will find a link and password to view the outlook.

Wednesday night and Thursday

High confidence

Showers will end from west to east this evening (Wednesday evening).  Overnight sky conditions will be cloudy early and then decreasing clouds overnight.  We should have a sunny Thursday morning.

The big weather story on Thursday will be the gusty winds.  You can expect gusty winds through the day and into the evening.  Winds of 15-30 mph will be common.  Occasion gusts may reach 40 mph. This could cause some problems with outdoor holiday decorations.  Keep that in mind.

Here is the NAM wind gust forecast for 9 am on Thursday.

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Dry weather on Thursday into Thursday night.

Colder temperatures Thursday night with temperatures dipping into the 20’s.  Winds will make it feel colder.

Friday morning wind chills.

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Friday into Sunday:

Low to medium confidence.

Our next weather maker will approach on Friday and Friday night.  There will initially be an increase in cloud cover.  A small chance for precipitation Friday night.

Better chances for precipitation should arrive on Saturday and Saturday night.  It might be cold enough for sleet/mix at the onset of the precipitation.  This would most likely be over southeast Missouri or the Ozarks.  I will monitor and update accordingly as we draw closer to the time frame in question.

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At this time, the concerns are fairly low.  Again, monitor updates.

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Above normal temperatures are anticipated for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  That will mean overnight lows in the 30’s with highs in the 40’s and 50’s.

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Colder air filters into the region on Saturday night and there is a small chance the precipitation ends as a wintry mix.  At this time, this does not appear to be an issue for road conditions.  As always, monitor updates.

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Here is the winter threat matrix for Friday and Saturday.

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Sunday night into Monday night:

Decreasing confidence.  Model guidance is all over the place with yet another storm system.

Clouds will stick with us on Sunday night and Monday as another storm system approaches.  My forecast confidence dramatically decreases during this time period.  Models are showing everything from little to no precipitation to thunderstorms.

Needless to say, we will place a sticky note to monitor this time period.  I hope to have better confidence tomorrow and Friday.

 

Blast of cold air next week:

I am monitoring the potential for bitterly cold air for the middle and end of next week.  I have covered this in the winter weather outlook and may freshen the details up this evening.

It appears a storm system may move through the region around January 4th through 6th.  We will need to monitor this event for wintry precipitation followed by bitterly cold air.  Low confidence, so monitor updates,For you cold and snow fans.  Here is what the GFS model is showing for next week.  (those who hate cold weather might want to look away)

This first map is the temperature anomaly map for January  3rd and 4th.  How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be?  Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 43 degrees.  Normal low temperatures are around 23 degrees.
This map is showing warmer air in our region with an area of low pressure passing to our north.  That draws the warmer air northward.
Storm track will be key to what happens in our region.  If the system tracks to our north then we will have rain.  If the system tracks to our south then we might have snow.  Let’s keep an eye on this one.  I will keep the winter weather outlook updated each day with fresh information.
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Look at the cold air that follows.  WELL below normal temperatures for much of the United States.
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Another view
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Here is the temperature forecast
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Zoomed in on Thursday and Friday of next week
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Here is the system on the GFS.  Rain is green and snow is blue.  Storm track would be key to this one.
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The GFS, taken at face value, is showing heavy snow and high winds in MO/IL.  Long way off and you know my stance on that subject.  Winter weather is difficult to forecast 24-48 hours in advance, let alone days in advance.
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To view the winter weather outlook sign into your www.weathertalk.com account and click the Daily Weather Summary button.  Then, follow the directions.
Find me on Twitter, as well!

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

This will be updated after 6 pm tonight.

 

High and Low Temperature Outlook 

Thursday morning low temperatures.
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Thursday afternoon high temperatures

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Friday morning low temperatures
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Friday afternoon high
 temperatures
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..Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thursday through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated through this coming Sunday.

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Updated rain probabilities.
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No major concerns into Friday.  I will monitor late Friday night and Saturday morning and again Saturday night/Sunday morning for wintry mix.  Concerns appear low, at this time.  Monitor updates.

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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