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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service. Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones. You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. These are updated twice weekly.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.
Winter storm outlook has been posted. Updated on Tuesday, December 27th
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.
December 27, 2016
Tuesday Night: Clear. Perhaps some increase in clouds after midnight. Cool temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: Northwest at 0-5 mph becoming south and southeast at 0-6 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 5:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:52 p.m. Waning Crescent
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December 28, 2016
Wednesday: Morning sun. Increasingly cloudy through the day. Showers and thunderstorms forming during the late morning and afternoon hours. Rainfall totals of a trace to 0.20″ will be the general rule. If a thunderstorm forms then a bit heavier. Scattered hail likely.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning. Pea to dime size hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48 to 54 degree range
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southeast at 7-14 mph with gusts to 24 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No, but if a thunderstorm forms there could be pea to dime size hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there should be some showers in the region. Check radars.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 6:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:35 p.m. Waning Crescent
HRRR rainfall total map for today
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Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy early and then decreasing cloudiness. Evening showers possible. Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways before 8 pm
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30’s
Wind Chill: 25~30
Winds: Becoming west and northwest at 10-20 mph and gusty
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40% (mostly early)
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered before 8 pm.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
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December 29, 2016
Thursday: Gusty winds. Mostly sunny. Seasonably cool.
What impact is expected? Strong winds could knock around outdoor decorations.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North and northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts to 35/40 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3
Moonrise will be at 7:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:29 p.m. New Moon
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Thursday Night: Clear. Cold. Breezy.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 20’s
Wind Chill: 18 to 24
Winds: Northwest at 10-15 mph. Higher gusts early in the night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 30, 2016
Friday: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: West winds becoming southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3
Moonrise will be at 7:55 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:23 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Perhaps increasing clouds after midnight. Slight chance for precipitation after 3 am over southeast Missouri. I will monitor this part of the forecast.
What impact is expected? Patchy fog possible. Low confidence (for now) on the fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30’s
Wind Chill: 28
Winds: Southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 31, 2016
Saturday: Increasing clouds. Small chance for sleet early and then rain showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: South at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, but monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Nothing signficant.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 8:39 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:21 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Saturday Night: Cloudy. Showers possible. Precipitation may briefly end as sleet or light snow. No accumulation or problems anticipated. Rain ending with some decrease in clouds after 3 am.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Nothing significant anticipated. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would encourage you to monitor updates. Rain is a possibility. Low confidence.
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January 1, 2016
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: East at 4-8 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 9:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:20 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Sunday Night: Cloudy. Low confidence on Sunday night’s rain chances.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: East at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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January 2, 2016
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. A thunderstorm not out of the question.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 50’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: South at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updated forecasts
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Monday Night: Cloudy. Rain possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest to west at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
More information on the UV index. Click here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- What a ride December has delivered
- Wednesday’s rain chances
- Weekend outlook
- Contest winners
- Shadow Angel Foundation announcement
Happy holidays, everyone. I hope you and your family are having a nice week.
In case you missed the announcement! We have added a new charity to the list of charities that we support/work with.
Click image to enlarge
Also, did you win anything in the BIG contest giveaway? CLICK HERE (see if you won something)
Thank you, for entering. I will have more contests soon. Monitor updates!
Forecast Analysis:
Wow, what a month
Let’s review.
We have experienced one heck of a roller-coaster ride. That was the December forecast. Colder than normal and active. Meaning, more cold days than warm days.
- December, for the most part has delivered below to well below normal temperatures (see map below)
- We experienced single digit temperatures a few days ago.
- Two weekends in a row we recorded record-breaking warm temperatures.
- Last weekend some of the largest December hail that I have personally ever witnessed (in our region) fell in southeast Missouri (tea cup side in New Madrid County).
- We had a 50+ degree temperature drop behind the cold front last weekend. One of the larger temperature drops that I can remember in our region.
- Tornadoes occurred last weekend and yesterday.
- Widespread heavy rain fell on Monday. See the rainfall map below.
- And, we recorded one snow and ice event (light accumulations, but with numerous accidents).
To say that it has been a challenging month to forecast is an understatement. There were several events that I had to quickly adjust and change my forecast thoughts.
December’s temperature anomaly. These numbers were more extreme. The last two mild spells shaved several degrees off the below normal anomalies. This map shows you how many degrees above or below normal temperatures have been since December 1st.
New Madrid County, Missouri hailstorm last weekend. Lone Oak, Kentucky also had large hail. Hail reports indicate quarter to half dollar size in Lone Oak. We were fortunate that day that we did not have more tornadoes.
Monday’s crazy rainfall map. Scale is on the left.
Portions of Massac County, Illinois picked up four inches of rain on Monday. Flooded roadways were reported in numerous counties.
Click to enlarge.
What a ride. Never a dull moment in our region when it comes to weather.
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Dry weather is anticipated for Thursday and Thursday night/Friday. There might be some increase in clouds on Friday night as yet another system takes shape to our southwest.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
This is the WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast map.
Light rain event for portions of the area on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Many areas may remain dry.
North view and south view. Not a lot of rain with this event.
South view
High and Low Temperature Outlook
Wednesday morning low temperatures.
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Wednesday afternoon high temperatures
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Thursday morning low temperatures
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Thursday afternoon high temperatures
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..Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday through Sunday: A few thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday over Kentucky and Tennessee. Lightning is the main concern. Otherwise, severe weather is not anticipated through this coming Sunday.
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No major changes in the ongoing forecast.
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No major concerns into Friday.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
