Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 27, 2018: Subscriber update. Windy conditions. Showers and some storms. Colder next week. Subscribers, if you don’t have the password email me at beaudodson@usawx.com it is not the same as your WeatherTalk password

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December 27, 2018
Thursday Forecast
:  Strong and gusty wind conditions.  Cloudy.  A period or two of rain and thunderstorms.  Mild.  Moderate rain possible.  A thin band of convection/thunderstorms may quickly sweep from SW to NE through the region.  This band of thunderstorms may produce high winds.  Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 56 to 64      IL ~ 60 to 64     KY ~ 60 to 65     TN ~ 60 to 65
Wind direction and speed:  South and southeast at 25 to 45 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 100%     IL ~ 100%     KY ~ 100%     TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Is flash flooding anticipated? Low risk
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  There is a risk that some low topped convection could produce winds of 50 mph or greater.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning possible.  Strong winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Rain will cause wet conditions for outdoor activities.  Windy conditions will also be an issue for high profile vehicles and hunters.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:08 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy before 12 AM.  Rain ending west to east early in the evening.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 36 to 42      IL ~ 38 to 44       KY ~ 45 to 50       TN ~  45 to 50
Wind direction and speed:  West and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 35 to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% before 8 PM     IL ~ 30% before 8 PM     KY ~ Ending early in the evening     TN ~ Ending early in the evening
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread early and then becoming less and less coverage as we move through the night.
Is flash flooding anticipated? Low risk
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?   No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? There is a small risk of a severe thunderstorm during the evening hours (mainly over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky).
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  Yes early in the evening
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Early in the night wet roadways and perhaps isolated lightning (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky).  Gusty winds area-wide.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B early in the night
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain will have caused damp conditions.    Gusty wind conditions could also be an issue for some.
Sunset: 4:44PM
Moonrise:  10:35  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  11:08 AM

 

December 28, 2018
Friday Forecast
:  Cloudy early.  Becoming partly cloudy.  Not as mild as it was on Thursday.  Temperatures may fall during the day as colder air moves in from the west and northwest.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 40 to 45      IL ~ 42 to 48      KY ~ 50 to 55      TN ~ 50 to 55
Wind direction and speed:  Becoming west and northwest at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  It may be damp because of the Thursday and Thursday night rain event.  Otherwise, no other impacts.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Colder.  Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 25 to 30      IL ~ 28 to 32      KY ~ 28 to 34        TN ~  30 to 34
Wind direction and speed:  West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 22 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?   No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor the risk of fog.  Lower visibility in areas with fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Fog could cause some issues late at night.  If temperatures are cold enough then a few slick spots could form on roadways.
Sunset: 4:45 PM
Moonrise:  11:46  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  11:43 AM

 

December 29, 2018
Saturday Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 38 to 44      IL ~  38 to 44      KY ~ 38 to 44      TN ~ 40 to 45
Wind direction and speed:  North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Early morning fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Chilly conditions may make it uncomfortable for those outdoors.  Typical December cold.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A fast-moving system will produce some clouds Saturday night and Sunday.  This system may push through the region dry.  Some models produce hints of a light wintry mix.  I will monitor trends and update as needed.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 26 to 30      IL ~ 28 to 32      KY ~ 28 to 32        TN ~  30 to 34
Wind direction and speed:  Variable at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 20 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Monitor updates
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?   
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Low confidence.  Wet roadways.  Icy roads are possible if precipitation is more widespread.  This is a question.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  There will be a chance of wet roadways.  Icy roadways are possible depending on the intensity of the precipitation.  Monitor updates.
Sunset: 4:45 PM
Moonrise:  11:56  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  12:15 PM

 

December 30, 2018
Sunday Forecast
:  Cloudy during the morning hours.   A slight chance of showers or a light wintry mix.  Temperatures will climb above freezing early in the day.  A chance of showers towards evening (esp over our southern counties in the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border)
My confidence in the forecast verifying Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 42 to 46      IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 43 to 46      TN ~ 44 to 46
Wind direction and speed:  East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated during the AM hours
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? A low-end risk of a wintry mix before 9 AM
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor updates early in the morning
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roadways.  Monitor the risk of a light wintry mix.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Damp conditions are possible early in the morning.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Rain chances increasing as we push through the night.  I will monitor the risk of a light wintry mix. Temperatures will likely be too warm for snow.  Temperatures may rise after midnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 35 to 40      IL ~ 35 to 40      KY ~ 35 to 40        TN ~  35 to 40
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% early and 60% towards morning    IL ~ 30% early and 60% towards morning     KY ~ 40% early and 70% towards morning     TN ~ 40% early and 70% towards morning
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing through the night.  Becoming widespread by morning.
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways will be the main concern.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Early in the night, most likely none.  Damp conditions develop overnight.
Sunset: 4:46 PM
Moonrise:  12:46  AM Last Quarter
Moonset:  12:47 PM

 

December 31, 2018
Monday Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Widespread rain.  Moderate rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 46 to 50      IL ~ 46 to 50      KY ~ 46 to 50      TN ~ 46 to 52
Wind direction and speed:  Northeast becoming South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 70%     IL ~ 70%     KY ~ 70%     TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  Small risk
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Damp conditions.  Rain will likely interfere with outdoor activities.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain ending early in the night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 28 to 34      IL ~ 28 to 34      KY ~ 32 to 35        TN ~  32 to 35
Wind direction and speed:  West at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  Most likely no
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways are possible early in the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would not cancel plans.  I would monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Damp conditions.  Turning colder.
Sunset: 4:47 PM
Moonrise:  1:54  AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  1:20 PM

 

January 1, 2018
Tuesday Forecast
:   Becoming partly cloudy.  Colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 36 to 44      IL ~ 36 to 44      KY ~ 40 to 44     TN ~ 40 to 44
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation should have come to an end
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  None
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Cold.  Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 18 to 24      IL ~ 18 to 24      KY ~ 22 to 25       TN ~   22 to 25
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 10 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?   No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy fog could reduce visibility
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Cold air will make it uncomfortable for those outside.  Wind chill values will drop into the 10 to 20 degree range.
Sunset: 4:48 PM
Moonrise:  2:56  AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  1:53 PM

.

January 2, 2018
Wednesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 30 to 35      IL ~ 30 to 35      KY ~ 34 to 38      TN ~ 34 to 38
Wind direction and speed:  North at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 20 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold wind chill values
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Cold weather will make it uncomfortable for those outdoors.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.   Chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 25 to 30      IL ~ 26 to 30      KY ~ 28 to 34        TN ~  30 to 34
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?   No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Wind direction and speed: North at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor fog conditions for lower visibility.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Most likely no.  Monitor fog.
Sunset: 4:49 PM
Moonrise:  3:56  AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  2:30 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

Click to enlarge

 

.

Thursday:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Friday:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Saturday:  Dry on Saturday. Late Saturday night a fast moving system could produce a light wintry mix.  This system has little in the way of moisture to work with.  Monitor updates.

Sunday:  I will monitor late Saturday night/early Sunday morning for a wintry mix.  Low risk.

Monday and Monday night:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Tuesday:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Wednesday:   Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Wednesday night and Thursday:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

 

 

Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Click to enlarge graphics on the blog.

This is the anticipated rainfall from today’s event.  Locally higher where thunderstorms occur.

 

 

Another rain event is likely Sunday night into Monday evening.

Here are the 24-hour rainfall totals from 7 PM Sunday through 7 PM Monday

 

 

Here is the map showing the rain totals from today through Monday night (everything added up)

 

 

 

 

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If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Thursday and Thursday night:  Thunderstorms are possible late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.  Any convection that develops could produce wind gusts above 50 mph.  Monitor any possible warnings.

Friday through Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

 

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

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 .

 

  1.  Rain and strong winds today
  2.  Low topped convection/thunderstorm line could produce high winds
  3.  Rain is back in the forecast as we push through the weekend into early next week
  4.  Colder next week

 

 

FORECAST

Today:

A large winter storm is sweeping through the central United States.

Blizzard warnings have been issued for portions of the central and northern plains.  Widespread winter storm warnings, as well.

The red zone represents blizzard warnings.  The pink areas are winter storm warnings.

Our region is in the warm sector.  Wind advisories have been issued.  Strong and gusty winds today into tonight.

 

 

Most of our region is covered in wind advisories.  That means strong and gusty winds today and tonight.

Here is the 8 AM wind gust map

These winds will increase and gust into the 30’s and 40’s later today and this evening.

 

 

The wind is caused by a tight pressure gradient.

This map shows you the isobars.  Isobars are equal lines of barometric pressure.  The tighter the black lines the windier conditions will be.

You can see the low pressure center in Kansas.

 

 

Our region is firmly placed in the warm sector of this event.

You can see on this temperature graph how the warm air is moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico.  The low-pressure center is in Kansas.  Low pressure rotates counterclockwise.

 

 

Being in the warm sector will mean showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.

The area is blanketed in clouds this morning.

You can see the morning satellite view.

The low is in Kansas.  You can see how the clouds wrap around the area of low pressure.

Live satellite views.  Click here

 

 

 

Warm air continues to spread northward into our region.  These warm temperatures are coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and the southern United States.

This is because the cold front is still well to our west.  The deep area of low pressure is to our west.  Low pressure rotates counter-clockwise.  That is helping to drive the warm and moist air northward.

Here is the temperature forecast map for today.

 

 

Here is the dew point map.

Dewpoint is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  The higher the dew points the greater the amount of moisture.

During the winter months, I usually look for dew points in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s+ when forecasting severe weather.  Dew points will struggle to reach those levels.  That will help keep the severe weather threat to a minimum.  The main concern will be strong and gusty winds with any thunderstorms or convection that develops.

 

 

There is plenty of wind energy with this system.

Here is the 850 MB wind map.  850 MB is about 5000′ aloft.  Strong wind conditions with the low-level jet.

The colors over our region represent 70+ knot winds (at 5000′ feet aloft).

 

 

Thunderstorms that develop today could bring down some strong wind gusts.

Even without thunderstorms, we will have winds today in the 20 to 40+ mph range.

Let’s look at the future-cast radar from the Hrrr model guidance.  You can see the time-stamp in the upper left.

A band of showers and thunderstorms will rapidly push through the region today.  That thin band of red could produce high winds, as well.

I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorm warnings.

 

 

Tonight:

Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end tonight as the cold front sweeps through the region.  Winds will turn out of the southwest and west.  Temperatures will be colder tonight, as well.

Check out temperatures tonight.  The cold front lags behind the band of rain.  It may remain in the 50’s most of tonight across portions of our local area.

 

 

Friday into Saturday afternoon

Calm weather returns by Friday and that will last into Saturday evening.  It will be cooler.

 

Saturday night into Tuesday

We have a series of weather systems that will pass through the region Saturday night into Tuesday morning.

Temperatures, during these events, will vary.

At one time it appeared that a wintry mix would be possible Saturday night into Monday night.  It now appears that it may be too warm for a wintry mix.

These disturbances should produce mostly rain.

The greatest chance of rain will occur Sunday evening into Monday.  Widespread rain is anticipated.  Some areas may receive another inch+ of rain.

These rain events could cause some flooding in the State of Kentucky and Tennessee.  Perhaps just east and southeast of my forecast counties.  Rivers will be on the rise over the coming weeks.

Here are some model animations.

Saturday night the chance of rain is low.  A fast-moving disturbance will bring some clouds and perhaps a light shower.

Here is the future-cast radar for late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.  You can see a few showers in the region.

I will monitor this system.  If temperatures are cold enough then a light wintry mix could occur early in the morning.  Low confidence in that happening.  The system is moisture starved.

 

 

Here is the Canadian model guidance.  It shows some pink early Sunday morning.  That would be a light wintry mix.  Low confidence on that occurring.

The Canadian model then shows rain overspreading the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.  Too warm for ice or snow.

 

 

A larger system will spread rain back into the region Sunday evening and night.

Here is the GFS animation showing you that event.

Time-stamp upper left.

 

 

Temperature Anomalies 

Let’s look at the temperature anomaly forecast map from the GFS model guidance.

I will keep showing you this graphic animation over the coming weeks.

Red colors indicate above normal temperatures.  Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the map animation.

The models have been swinging back and forth on the subject of warm vs cold.  Models don’t do well in patterns like this.

Click to enlarge.  Date stamp upper left.

 

 

Temperatures at 8 AM this morning were chilly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bonus VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

Ohio Valley

Long range

 

No Missouri Valley video today

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts. It is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

 

 

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers December 27th through December January 2nd

Click images to enlarge them.

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

 

 

 

 

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.40″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers  January 3rd through January 9th

 

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 23 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.80″

This outlook covers January 4th and January 10th

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

 

The winter update has been posted.

I always tell people to read this

http://johndee.com/seasonalfcst/soapbox.htm

Winter forecasts are some skill and some luck.  The science is far from perfect.

January temperature outlook graphic

 

 

January temperature outlook

 

 

December through February snow outlook.

The long range team indicates above normal snowfall likely.

 

 

Technical details

Click to enlarge

 

 

 

January temperature outlook

 

 

February temperature outlook

 

 

March Temperature Outlook

 

 

 


 

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 674

Tonight’s Guest Panelist is a meteorologist recently retired as MIC from the NWS Birmingham.  Jim Stefkovitch, welcome to the show!

Our second Guest Panelist is the MIC of the NWS in Atlanta.  Keith Stellman, welcome to the show!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Professional of Sociology at Northwestern University. His PhD is from Harvard, and he has received numerous fellowships. In fact, he is probably the smartest person we have ever had on the show. Dr. Gary Alan Fine, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • TV meteorologist tragically lost to suicide
  • The role of politics in the day-to-day operations of the NWS
  • Upcoming 5th anniversary of “Snowmageddon”
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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